🚨 Policy brief! 🇺🇸Trump userà finanza, energia e tech per fare pressione sull'#Europa. 🇪🇺 Ma quest'ultima ha più opzioni di quanto pensi. Mitigare, dissuadere, escalare: il nuovo policy brief @ecfr.eu di @agathedemarais.com, @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social e @jitorreblanca.eurosky.social

Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion – European Council on Foreign Relations

The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it.

buff.ly

As tariffs hit their limits Trump could turn to the financial, energy and digital fields to pressure Europe - in our @ecfr.eu policy brief @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, @jitorreblanca.eurosky.social and I sketch out three such scenarios, complete with response options for Europe ecfr.eu/publication/...

Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion – European Council on Foreign Relations

The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it.

ecfr.eu

ECFR’s latest poll confirms the collapse in European faith in the US. Only 11% of respondents now consider it an ally, down from 16% half a year ago and 22% in November 2024. https://ecfr.eu/publication/home-alone-europeans-are-ready-to-defend-themselves/

🎲Going all in or playing it safe? Our latest policy brief explores scenarios of US coercion against Europe in the finance, energy and tech spheres. It maps out 3 potential EU responses: mitigation, deterrence and escalation. Read @ecfr.eu's new report: ecfr.eu/publication/...

Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion – European Council on Foreign Relations

The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it.

ecfr.eu

I joined the Derisky Business pod with @geoffreygertz.bsky.social and Emily Kilcrease to discuss Europe's latest China twists, trade wars, and what's left of transatlantic economic security. www.cnas.org/publications...

China's silent coercion works precisely because Europe debates marginal adjustments whilst avoiding systemic responses. Beijing achieves policy paralysis without firing a shot—the threat of retaliation constrains European action more effectively than actual sanctions ever could.

Tobias Gehrke@tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Big weeks in Brussels and EU capitals to see if the chilling effect of Chinese coercive threats will continue to hold sway over Europe’s trade and industrial agenda. Beijing’s coercive leverage works best when it quietly constrains Europe’s policy space... 1/

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest—China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself. Read the full commentary by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social: https://bit.ly/43r0l4M

How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself – European Council on Foreign Relations

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest

bit.ly

Big weeks in Brussels and EU capitals to see if the chilling effect of Chinese coercive threats will continue to hold sway over Europe’s trade and industrial agenda. Beijing’s coercive leverage works best when it quietly constrains Europe’s policy space... 1/

How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself – European Council on Foreign Relations

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest

ecfr.eu

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest—China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself. Read the full commentary by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social: https://bit.ly/43r0l4M

How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself – European Council on Foreign Relations

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest

bit.ly

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest—China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself. Read the full commentary by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social: https://bit.ly/43r0l4M

How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself – European Council on Foreign Relations

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest

bit.ly

[Commentary] #Trade & #GlobalEurope: How #China’s silent coercion has #Europe sanctioning itself, by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social | @ecfr.eu www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...

How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself - PubAffairs Bruxelles

China is ramping up its threats of economic coercion against Europe. In April alone, China’s State Council enacted the Provisions on Industrial and Supply Chain Security (which instructs its companies...

pubaffairsbruxelles.eu

📌 «CÓMO LA COERCIÓN SILENCIOSA DE CHINA ESTÁ LLEVANDO A EUROPA A SANCIONARSE A SÍ MISMA» 📝 @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social ( @ecfrpower.bsky.social ) 💡 Pekín no necesita recurrir a la coacción económica para orientar la agenda económica de Europa 🔗 Puedes descubrir más aquí ⬇️ ecfr.eu/article/how-...

How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself – European Council on Foreign Relations

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest

ecfr.eu

If European policymakers pre-emptively drop measures to address the China shock more systematically for fear of retaliation, the chilling effect of Chinese coercion works just as well, without having to actually use its tools 1/

As our latest policy brief, Beijing hold'em, discusses the key economic strategies Europe should develop to build a deterrence posture against China, in a previous one, @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social stated the kinds of assets Europeans have against the Trump administration. https://bit.ly/3PBPZvz

In Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion, Tobias Gehrke and Nina Schmelzer map the key leverage points available to the EU across trade, investment and critical infrastructure which can build an economic deterrence posture against China. https://bit.ly/413rF8c

China's mineral monopoly does not only give Beijing coercive power over European defense and industrial sectors, but it can also hold the wider EU competitiveness agenda hostage. 1/

Good moment to repost my paper from last year, mapping the cards Europe could play in response to US coercion. Most of them could be played via the anti-coercion instrument. Digital services charges and (de facto) export controls are the keys. ecfr.eu/publication/...

Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion – European Council on Foreign Relations

Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relati

ecfr.eu

Friends, I've moved to DC. If you're based here or are passing through, do get in touch!

🎧New week, new podcast! This week, Mark Leonard welcomes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and Andrew Small. Together, they discuss China’s current and future economic strategies—and actions that Europe should take in response Listen to the full episode: https://bit.ly/4qjSFuF

bit.ly

The EU’s new economic security communication is a step in the right direction. If Europe wants to be a geoeconomic actor instead of a mere geoeconomic battleground, it must evolve from being a risk manager and become a power broker, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social https://bit.ly/446JjKc

Understanding the EU’s new economic security playbook

The EU’s new economic security communication is a step in the right direction. If Europe wants to be a geoeconomic actor instead of a mere geoeconomic battleground, it must evolve from being a risk…

bit.ly

What to make of the EU's latest economic security proposals A few thoughts for @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/unde...

Understanding the EU’s new economic security playbook

The EU’s new economic security communication is a step in the right direction. If Europe wants to be a geoeconomic actor instead of a mere geoeconomic battleground, it must evolve from being a risk…

ecfr.eu

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it | @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/how-...

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it

Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…

ecfr.eu

The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...

The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus

If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.

foreignpolicy.com

“Europe is in a historic economic security crisis, with its industry being dependent on bureaucrats in Beijing signing licences for REEs. "The EU needs to get together to solve this issue as quickly as possible... call it economic security or not,” said @tobiasgehrke @ecfr

Feels like the strategic autonomy debate all over again these days: endless scoping, definitions, etymology debates. Let's just focus on solving a threat: Call an emergency on REEs, put all possible trade and security (3Ps) on the table, see how each could help solve the emergency, and go implement

Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham.bsky.social · 9mo ago

As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, Europe scrambles for its dictionary My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...

As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, Europe scrambles for its dictionary My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...

As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, EU scrambles for its dictionary

The EU is preparing to unveil a new doctrine on economic security, but it’s a concept that officials and experts say has no clear definition.

scmp.com

There’s no shortage of ways inverters can be turned into weapons, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social https://bit.ly/4pGeDbd

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it

Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…

bit.ly

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it In my latest, I look at how Europe’s solar boom has quietly given Beijing potential access points inside the EU energy grid through Chinese-made inverters. 🧵 ecfr.eu/article/how-...

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it

Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…

ecfr.eu

Europe’s solar boom has handed China remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid technologies, Europe risks another energy security crisis, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/how-...

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it

Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…

ecfr.eu

America is eating Europe’s lunch again. Solvay’s rare earth processing plant in France is a genuine strategic asset. It could have scaled to cover 30% of Europe’s needs. But... www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...

Europe’s Biggest Rare Earths Producer Forges U.S. Deals

nytimes.com