The United States accounts for a quarter of the world economy but nearly two-thirds of its stock market.
Steve Rattner
@steverattner.bsky.social
Former head of Obama Auto Task Force. Wall Street financier. Contributing Writer to NY Times Op-Ed. Morning Joe Economic Analyst. 🌐
Bush's GOP got shellacked in 2026 in the House and the Senate with economic numbers better than Trump's right now. Inflation is more the twice as high under Trump, and job creation is a quarter of what it was before the 2006 midterms.
The Iran War is costing Americans $2,000 per household according to analysis by Moody's Analytics and Brown University.
The federal government spends 10 times more on seniors than on children.
Stock holdings now exceed the value of primary residences in the U.S. Yet the typical family's home is worth five times their stock portfolio. In other words, the gains from the stock market boom are going to the top.
One in five American families fell behind on a loan or mortgage payment in the past year — up from one in eight in 2022 and the highest since 2007.
Sun Belt cities are building housing roughly three times as fast as blue state metropolises.
The economic and political mood this year is similar to 2006, but Democrats have fewer swing districts to compete in. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
Consumer sentiment is at 48, the fourth-lowest reading since 1952. It was almost double that at this point in Bush’s second term and didn’t even fall this low during the 2008 financial crisis. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
Gas is still quite expensive at $4.35 a gallon ahead of the midterms. That's worse than the inflation-adjusted price in 2006 when the Democrats won the House and the Senate from Bush's GOP.
Trump’s approval rating is 37%, almost exactly where Bush was before the 2006 midterms, which his party lost badly. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
Inflation, mortgage rates, and hiring are all worse today than in October 2006. Only unemployment and economic growth are roughly the same. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
Real wage growth is stagnant over the past year. In 2006, it was rising 2.5% annually by election day. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
Gas prices fell 25% in the three months before the 2006 midterms. They’re rising heading into this round: $4.46 a gallon, up from $2.88 in January. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
Since Trump took office, the personal saving rate has fallen from 5.7% to 4.1%, the lowest since 2022. With tariffs pushing up prices and real wages falling since the Iran War, families are dipping into savings to keep up.
Corporate profits and tax revenues grew together until the Trump tax cuts. Now corporate profits are at an all-time high while tax receipts are at their lowest since 2021.
The top 0.1% of Americans now hold more than six times more wealth than the bottom half.
The trade deficit last month was $36 billion larger than the Biden average. Trump's tariffs have failed.
Take A.I. and chip stocks out of the index and the market is down 5.7% since late August. The S&P 500 is up 2.4% over the same stretch, chip stocks 16%. A.I. is holding the whole market up.
Health care is driving almost all job creation under President Trump.
Real wage growth was negative for the fifth month in a row in August.
The 30-year Treasury is near 5.7%, the highest since 2002. Mortgages are back above 7%. The Fed controls short-term rates. The market sets long-term rates, and that market is getting pretty scary.
Wages are at all-time lows, and profits at historic highs, as a percent of GDP. The backlash against A.I. is a backlash against unchecked inequality. My @nytopinion.nytimes.com Chart:
Most Americans used to work on farms, but over the last century, we lost 9 million agricultural jobs. At the same time, we gained millions more in new fields, thanks to increased productivity. My @nytopinion.nytimes.com Chart: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/o...
Land-grant colleges and the New Deal helped Americans move from farms to new jobs in the city. Workers hit by the China shock got far less help. A.I. is next. Government has to make sure it lifts all boats. My @nytopinion.nytimes.com op-ed: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/o...
Opinion | Six Charts That Show Just How Much We Need A.I.
All the worry about artificial intelligence should not obscure this key point: If we don’t develop it, we’ll be a lot worse off.
nytimes.com
So far, A.I.'s losers are routine office jobs like data entry keyers and customer service reps. Its winners are data scientists and the trades building the data centers like construction laborers and electricians. My @nytopinion.nytimes.com Chart: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/o...
The computer revolution wiped out 2.8 million clerical jobs: typists, data entry keyers, file clerks, secretaries. It also created nearly 4 million jobs in computer occupations that barely existed in 1990. My @nytopinion.nytimes.com Chart: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/o...
Since 1830, technology has cut the American workweek from 69 hours to 38 while raising real income per person roughly 20-fold. Properly managed, A.I. can do the same. My @nytopinion.nytimes.com Chart: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/o...
Productivity growth raises per-capita incomes, but outside the dot-com boom, it's been sluggish for 50 years. A.I. is our best chance in a generation to change that. My @nytopinion.nytimes.com Chart: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/o...
A.I.'s risks are real, but they can and must be responsibly managed by government oversight. With proper guardrails, we can leverage A.I.'s transformative power for shared prosperity. Read my take in @nytopinion.nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/o...
Opinion | Six Charts That Show Just How Much We Need A.I.
All the worry about artificial intelligence should not obscure this key point: If we don’t develop it, we’ll be a lot worse off.
nytimes.com