Employ America
@employamerica.bsky.social
Strategies for the full employment of America’s workers, resources, and capabilities. Team: @prestonmui.bsky.social @skandaamarnath.bsky.social @kimstiens.bsky.social @arnabdatta.bsky.social employamerica.org
No strong beliefs on my end, except the meta belief that @employamerica.bsky.social is correct www.employamerica.org/inflation-an...
So You Want to Talk About Trimmed Mean Inflation?
Kevin Warsh says he wants to "survey a billion prices," yet has embraced a trimmed mean measure (conveniently the most dovish signal) which asymmetrically throws out 55% of the basket and leans on lag...
employamerica.org
From @prestonmui.bsky.social: Prices of essentials like healthcare and energy are starting to weigh on labor income and consumer spending. These constraints will lead to softer real GDP growth and productivity growth, spoiling Warsh's case for imminent rate cuts www.employamerica.org/productivity...
www.employamerica.org/inflation-an... Vikas and Skanda at @employamerica.bsky.social on how Kevin Warsh's selective focus on "Trimmed Mean inflation" misses upside inflationary dynamics
Confess I had not thought through the implications of no data collection in Oct. for Nov.'s jobs report until I read BLS's FAQ. 1)CPS is a panel. No collection in Oct means no new respondents initiated into the survey, and so many more need to be added in Nov. 2)above clearly has implications for
George Pearkes@peark.es · 10mo agoCan't actually find this on the BLS site, suggests we should be cautious on HH survey numbers (eg unemp rate) until '26 *BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY *BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR *BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.
We have brand-new Employ America merch, just in time for the holidays! Support our work for sustainable full employment by shopping at our store: employ-america-shop.fourthwall.com
New today from @prestonmui.bsky.social - Employ America's reaction to Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
The 2025 Framework Update Preserves Full Employment Lessons but Misses an Opportunity to Face the Supply Problem
Our immediate reaction to Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
employamerica.org
Framework update from Powell: removed the "shortfalls" language but adds: "employment may at times run above real-time assessments of maximum employment without necessarily creating risks to price stability." noting that estimates of "maximum employment" are "highly uncertain."
Is AI responsible for the relative increase in unemployment among recent college graduates? Probably not. Recent grad employment trends are similar in industries more or less likely to use AI Nice analysis from Will Raderman @employamerica.bsky.social
New from me at @employamerica.bsky.social In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment
The 2020 Fed Framework changes around full employment were appropriate and an important part of achieving the full employment recovery seen after the pandemic. Blaming it for historically unique deman...
employamerica.org
New up at @employamerica.bsky.social from our guest writer Will Raderman www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
Don’t Blame AI For The Rise in Recent Graduate Unemployment
AI may be a hot topic, but there isn't strong evidence that it’s responsible for the weaker labor market for recent college graduates.
employamerica.org
And, perhaps the most important part, check out the merch store employ-america-shop.fourthwall.com
Employ America Merch Store
The official merch shop of Employ America. Buy stuff to support our mission for sustainable full employment.
employ-america-shop.fourthwall.com
There’s lots of exciting news from Employ America today - we’re unveiling new branding, new mission-focused language, and a new vision for how to achieve durable full employment through robust macroeconomic policy. But that's not all...
Employ America@employamerica.bsky.social · last yr.Exciting news: Employ America is relaunching to face the challenges of a new era! Not only do we have a new logo and new branding, but we’ve also refocused our work pursuing Full Employment, and the array of policy solutions that can sustain it www.employamerica.org/expanding-th...
this is an extremely thoughtful note; one can really look at EA as a guiding light for how the “needs” for US policymaking have evolved over the past 5-10 years.
new EA just dropped
Employ America@employamerica.bsky.social · last yr.Exciting news: Employ America is relaunching to face the challenges of a new era! Not only do we have a new logo and new branding, but we’ve also refocused our work pursuing Full Employment, and the array of policy solutions that can sustain it www.employamerica.org/expanding-th...
Exciting news: Employ America is relaunching to face the challenges of a new era! Not only do we have a new logo and new branding, but we’ve also refocused our work pursuing Full Employment, and the array of policy solutions that can sustain it www.employamerica.org/expanding-th...
Our Mission In An Age Of Turbulence: Creating A New Economic Policy Toolkit
ICYMI: The Past, Present, And Future Of Macroeconomic Policy Overview Employ America was founded to advance the cause of full employment. In a full employment economy, jobs are plentiful, wage grow...
employamerica.org
At @employamerica.bsky.social: The Past, Present, And Future Of Macroeconomic Policy by Vikas Patel and myself. www.employamerica.org/blog/the-pas...
The Past, Present, And Future Of Macroeconomic Policy
Overview We originally launched Employ America to confront the policy failures that plagued the decade following the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (GFC). The failure of our policymakers to support ...
employamerica.org
Unemployment rate flat, but epop dips quite a bit. A lot of employed -> not in labor force flows this month.
New @rooseveltinstitute.org report from me & @alexbhturnbull.bsky.social: we need not choose between markets & planning—we can build better markets. Strategic reserves, integrated w/ modern financial markets, can boost supply resilience & stabilize prices during shocks. 1/
Roosevelt Institute@rooseveltinstitute.org · last yr.NEW: Americans need a government that delivers stability and security—not chaos. Our new essay collection brings together great minds to imagine how democracy can better deliver the economy Americans need and want. rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...
Roosevelt brought together 20+ authors (incl. Sen Murphy, AFL-CIO's Liz Shuler, Mariana Mazzucato, Cecilia Munoz, Ned Resnikoff, Arnab Datta...) to answer the question: what should progressive policy priorities look like in the coming months and years? (mini 🧵)
Roosevelt Institute@rooseveltinstitute.org · last yr.NEW: Americans need a government that delivers stability and security—not chaos. Our new essay collection brings together great minds to imagine how democracy can better deliver the economy Americans need and want. rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...
www.employamerica.org/blog/the-dre... New from me @employamerica.bsky.social. A follow up to my series on the 1990s productivity growth and lessons for today. Taking stock of everything that's happened in the past 90 days through the lens of full employment, investment, and supply-side stability.
The Dream of the 90s is Slipping Away in 2025
After the pandemic recession, the right policy decisions resulted in a strong recovery and laid the foundations for another era of sustained productivity growth, similar to the 1990s. Sadly, in 2025, ...
employamerica.org
A 1000 word op-ed is not a place for detailed policy prescriptions. Luckily, one thing I pushed for in this article was links to our work at @employamerica.bsky.social and @ifp.bsky.social. Here’s a thread with some of them (not all because we’ve written a LOT). www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/o...
Opinion | Climate Activists Need to Radically Change Their Approach Under Trump
Climate purity is a recipe for failure.
nytimes.com
That fall in prime-age epop looks bad, but there could be some weird residual seasonality going on. Feels more like bouncing around, just above the pre-2020 peak. #JobsDay
I think Bostic is asking the right question right now: "The salient question for me today is whether the labor market is cooling more dramatically than I had imagined when I developed my outlook for the economy." Dwells a lot on @davidwiczer.bsky.social's recent work on vacancy yields.
Heading into 2025 with Positive Economic Outlook, Mindful of Risks - December 2, 2024
In his latest quarterly message, Atlanta Fed president and CEO Raphael Bostic outlines his stance on labor market conditions and the path to 2 percent inflation.
atlantafed.org
