The Palaeontologist's Hammer

@palaeohammer.bsky.social

Scientific Insight on your Toronto Raptors by Mac Priebe

Reading between the lines: This seems like the league hedging. In 18-19, the Raptors were coming off being a 1-seed and added Kawhi. League scheduled 15 national TV games. Last year, Raptors got 2 national TV games. They were probably due for a small uptick after Scottie's playoff run

Josh Lewenberg@jlewenberg.bsky.social · 2mo ago

There are obvious geographical/financial reasons why the Raptors don’t tend to draw many US national TV games, but again, they got 15 of them the last time Kawhi played for Toronto. Only 7 this season is… interesting 👀 (tho they could be added later). The Clippers have more (8)

I should say, the other rumoured Lebron destinations make less sense to me I wrote in my previous post how returning to CLE would have been fraught with potential issues MIA fit is awkward. More on this when I do a season preview but MIA in the play-in, or even the lottery - wouldn't surprise me

Kawhi Investigation complete? I saw references to Mike Vorkunov reporting that the investigation is complete I had trouble confirming this, but here it is: He spoke about it on The Rich Eisen Show The segment starts at the 9:38 mark @mikevorkunov.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMBL...

The Athletic’s Mike Vorkunov Talks LeBron Waiting Game & More | Full Interview | The Rich Eisen Show

YouTube video by The Rich Eisen Show

youtube.com

A few reasons why the disaster scenario (voiding Kawhi’s contract) is considered highly unlikely: 1) His current contract, signed in 2024, isn’t under investigation (as far as we know). The one in question, signed in 2021, expired more than a year ago.

Josh Lewenberg@jlewenberg.bsky.social · 2mo ago

For what it’s worth, the Raptors continue to talk and act like a team that is unworried. Sense is the only thing that would jeopardize the trade is the unlikely scenario where Kawhi’s contract is voided. Any other possible penalty, including suspension, is something they could work around.

Surely this means the Raptors paused the deal. Equally surely, the Clippers are okay with framing it this way, as it is understandable I am curious what kind of pressure the league will face as this drags on... I can easily imagine the other 28 owners being just fine with LAC+TOR in limbo, but...

Justin Russo@flybyknite.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Adam Silver said at his press conference tonight that the “league did not pause the [Kawhi Leonard] trade,” but rather that the “parties to the trade (Clippers and Raptors) made a decision not to go forward given that the investigation remained open.”

Thinking about the Kawhi trade pause: I'm not an insider, but here's my best guess at reading between the lines I would like to assume that smart people are running the various entities at play here (LAC, TOR, NBA). Based on that, I would rule out the nuclear endpoint of voiding Kawhi's contract

​Thinking about cap management issues after reading Blake's AMAZING piece several times...Highly recommended, and important for understanding how this will affect the Raptors' ability to fill out their roster Four Jakob trade ideas for the Raptors to add to the rotation and avoid the hard cap:

Blake Murphy@blakemurphy.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Explainer on the Raptors cap and roster situation after the Kawhi Leonard trade: www.sportsnet.ca/nba/article/...

Thinking about the Jaylen Brown trade and the Raptors 'choice' between them If one considers my tinfoil hat theories listed here, it is altogether possible that the Raptors were only roped in to whitewash the Aspiration fallout

The Palaeontologist's Hammer@palaeohammer.bsky.social · 3mo ago

More on Kawhi: This is wild speculation based on no inside information... I have to think that the Aspiration investigation is triggering all of this.

Heh, literally it's like a flash-mob-Kawhi-choir has burst into song! This trade construction is fine. Still worried about the accompanying extension. If it's 3/180, very hard pass! Ideally? Say, 2/90 + Jakob-for-expiring, followed later by team-friendly extensions for RJ (3/70?) and Shead (3/30?)

Josh Lewenberg@jlewenberg.bsky.social · 3mo ago

The Raptors' interest in Kawhi was described to me as "real but conditional." Contingent on price, obviously. Hard to see them paying more than last time, so think similar framework: secondary star (Ingram), former lottery pick (Dick), 1st-rounder in the following year's draft.