Ukraine is gaining an advantage over Russia as the war enters a new phase. ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social and @georgewbarros.bsky.social discussed their recent special report during The Brief with Jim Sciutto on CNN. Watch the full video: https://isw.pub/4e9ZcVy

CNN: Ukraine Holds Advantage over Russia in War | ISW's Kateryna Stepanenko and George Barros

YouTube video by Institute for the Study of War

youtu.be

Russian advances in Pokrovsk resulted not from a sudden breakthrough but rather from months of dedicated battlefield shaping. Read more in the November 14, 2025, report by @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RussianBAIBST

The Kremlin will likely formally amend restrictions on mobilizing Russia’s active reserve to conduct rolling partial mobilization without declaring war on Ukraine or formally announcing that it is conducting a partial involuntary call up. A🧵on our latest with @georgewbarros.bsky.social

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 10mo ago

WARNING: The Kremlin is Preparing to Mobilize Reservists on a Rolling Basis to Fight in Ukraine for the First Time: isw.pub/UKRWARNO101325 Note: This warning does not suggest that the Kremlin is likely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time.

NEW: Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined 10 priority objectives for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during the Russian MoD Collegium on August 29. 🧵(1/5) Read more:

Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, September 24, 2025

Russian Defense Minister Belousov outlined 10 priority objectives for the Russian MoD on August 29, per ISW.

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The Kremlin launched an initiative to neurologically profile 10,000 Russian children to identify leaders and anti-leaders & improve patriotism among the Russian youth. This initiative is likely part of the Kremlin's cognitive warfare effort aimed at garnering support for Russia's war efforts.🧵

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 12mo ago

NEW: RU law enforcement and the MoD may have coerced at least 20,000 Central Asian migrants to fight in Ukraine within the Russian military. Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, August 13, 2025: isw.pub/ForceGenUpda... Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ 🧵 (1/7)

NEW: Russian Drone Innovations are Likely Achieving Effects of Battlefield Air Interdiction in Ukraine Read the Special Report by ISW Russia Analyst and Deputy Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/Russiandrone... Key Takeaways ⬇🧵(1/6)

"All of these components — new military districts, changes in mobilization and defence spending — are suggesting that Russia is preparing for a protracted war, not just in Ukraine but also against NATO," ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social told @kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com/russias-new-...

Russia's new mobilization law yet another sign Kremlin is preparing for war with NATO, analysts say

Increased spending on defense and a new Russian conscription law are signs of the Kremlin's increasingly aggressive posture and preparations for future conflict with Europe and NATO states, according ...

kyivindependent.com

Russian and Ukrainian drones use cellphone internet networks to operate, so shutdowns are one way authorities try to counter the attacks, said @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

NEW: Russia is a key player in the cognitive warfare space and a model for China, Iran, and North Korea. Understanding cognitive warfare is a national security requirement for the United States. Read our primer by @nataliyabugayova.bsky.social & @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RUSCognitive...

It's the second anniversary of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny & the Kremlin is trying to prevent another mutiny by raising a veterans-based elite. Putin, however, may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to his regime stability by emboldening veterans.🧵

Kateryna Stepanenko@katstepanenko.bsky.social · last yr.

The Kremlin may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to Putin’s regime stability by emboldening veterans who may use their influence to advance their personal, financial, or political ambitions at the expense of the regime. A🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's latest Force Generation report.

The Kremlin may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to Putin’s regime stability by emboldening veterans who may use their influence to advance their personal, financial, or political ambitions at the expense of the regime. A🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's latest Force Generation report.

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his commitment to raising a new elite comprised of loyal veterans via the Time of Heroes federal program, which appoints veterans into positions of federal, regional, and municipal power. (1/3) isw.pub/ForceGen061825

The Kremlin is contradicting its ongoing centralization effort by reportedly delegating command of Africa Corps (which aimed to replace the Wagner Group) to a loyal Russian billionaire. A 🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social’s latest force generation & tech adaptations report.

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Ukrainian officials warned that the People's Republic of China (PRC) is increasingly enabling Russia to improve and grow its drone production. Read more in the June 11, 2025 Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update: isw.pub/ForceGen061125

. @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said the strikes show that “nowhere in Russia is safe,” and that Ukraine is “shaping a new type of warfare.” via @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/06/02/u...

Ukraine Shows It Can Still Flip the Script on How Wars Are Waged

nytimes.com

NEW: Russia and Ukraine are engaged in an active technological race to develop and deploy drones with artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities. Read @katstepanenko.bsky.social's report covering Russian and Ukrainian AI drone efforts: isw.pub/BattlefieldA... Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/5)

NEW | Russian recruiters continue to offer Russian recruits low-quality and ineffective military training before deploying them to Ukraine. Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, May 30, 2025: isw.pub/ForceGen053025 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/9)

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to prioritize leveraging migrants to mitigate ongoing labor shortages, despite ongoing complaints from Russian ultranationalists advocating for the Kremlin to impose harsher restrictions on migrants. (🧵1/9) Read More: isw.pub/ForceGen052125

“Putin is continuing to conflate the negotiations needed to reach a cease-fire agreement with those needed to reach a peace settlement in order to drive confusion in the West and falsely paint Ukraine as intransigent,” @katstepanenko.bsky.social recently told @nypost.com nypost.com/2025/05/19/u...

Trump wraps up call with Russia’s Putin, says cease-fire talks to start ‘immediately’

The White House did not immediately issue a readout on the Trump-Putin call, which was due to be followed by a conversation between the US president and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

nypost.com

NEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense intensified recruitment efforts for the state-controlled Africa Corps starting in February 2025, likely in an effort to expand Russia’s military presence in Africa and raise an active reserve that the Kremlin can use in Ukraine. isw.pub/ForceGen051425 More ⏬

NEW | Hiding Russia’s Weakness: isw.pub/HidingRussia... The Kremlin is projecting the narrative of a powerful Russia and a powerful Russian President Vladimir Putin to conceal the real weaknesses and limitations of Russia's capabilities and distract from Russia's battlefield failures. 🧵(1/4)

NEW | Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations Update May 7, 2025: Russian federal subjects continue to use dynamic pricing for one-time enlistment bonuses to incentivize volunteer recruitment. 1/3 Full report: isw.pub/RussianForce...

@katstepanenko.bsky.social: “Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging... trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia winning." www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/w...

More American Air Defense Is on the Way to Help Ukraine (Gift Article)

A Patriot air-defense system is moving from Israel to Ukraine, and Western allies are discussing the logistics of getting Germany or Greece to send another.

nytimes.com

“Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging, in which it’s trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation, when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia actually winning.” - @katstepanenko.bsky.social

Christopher Solomon@chris-solomon.bsky.social · last yr.

www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/w...

Putin is expediting the formation of a country-wide, veteran-based elite loyal to the regime and Russia's war efforts by lowering eligibility requirements for veterans to join local government service. A 🧵from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's new force generation & technical adaptations update.

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Russian military recruitment officials are reportedly leveraging a new law extending the validity of conscription notices to detain military-aged men and meet Russia's record-high Spring 2025 conscription quota. 🧵(1/3) Read more: isw.pub/RussianForce...

The Kremlin falsely framed Ukraine's extension of martial law & continue mobilization through August as an effort to inhibit the peace process. The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: The Kremlin is using surge pricing for enlistment bonuses to recruit additional volunteers and attempt to sustain Russia's protracted war effort in Ukraine. Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update April 15, 2025: isw.pub/RussianForce... More key takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/11)

Thrilled to share that @cnn.com cited my analysis on the news surrounding a popular Russian commander - Major General Ivan Popov - who attempted to weaponize his popularity & Russian information space to resist his removal from command in July 2023. www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e... A quick 🧵on Popov:

Russian general ousted after criticizing military top brass to return to battle – in charge of notorious unit of ex-convicts | CNN

One of Russia’s most outspoken generals, sacked and detained after a withering attack on the Defense Ministry two years ago, is returning to the front, according to his lawyer.

cnn.com

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Putin condemned former 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA] Commander Major General Ivan Popov to command a penal assault detachment in Ukraine — a demotion and effectively a death sentence — after Popov publicly appealed to Putin for his reinstatement to active military duty. isw.pub/SpecialRepor...

Excited to announce that @thestudyofwar.bsky.social launched a new product line focusing on Russia's recruitment, technological adaptations, defense industrial base & force reconstitution. First "Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations" update: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: The Kremlin is using surge pricing for enlistment bonuses to recruit additional volunteers and attempt to sustain Russia's protracted war effort in Ukraine. Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update April 15, 2025: isw.pub/RussianForce... More key takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/11)

Putin is likely afraid of having over 700,000 Russian veterans return to Russia in the event of demobilization out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return. Putin launched a deliberate campaign to suppress veteran civil societies.🧵

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans, by ISW Deputy Russia Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social Read the special report: isw.pub/AfghanSyndrome

ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social spoke to @nypost.com on the implications of the Trump administration pausing aid to Ukraine: nypost.com/2025/03/03/w...

Trump’s tough Ukraine War diplomacy exposes Europe’s leaders, shows very few alternatives

Two rough proposals have emerged ahead of a crucial meeting of Europe’s leaders this Thursday — though they’re both short on details and support in the bloc. And they both likely …

nypost.com

ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social spoke to @cnn.com's @ivanakottasova.bsky.social on the impact of the Trump administration's decision to pause US military aid to Ukraine (🧵1/7): www.cnn.com/2025/03/04/e...

Why has Trump halted military aid to Ukraine and what will it mean for the war? Here’s what to know | CNN

US President Donald Trump has gone all in with his effort to strongarm Kyiv into peace negotiations with Russia, suspending US military aid to Ukraine with immediate effect.

cnn.com

MORE: Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to the Zelensky-Trump meeting on March 3 by falsely framing Moscow and Washington DC as being aligned on settling Russia's war in Ukraine. (🧵1/7)

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: The Kremlin is falsely framing the US objectives of achieving peace in Ukraine as being aligned with Russia's stated objectives of destroying Ukraine as a sovereign state in the aftermath of the Feb 28 White House meeting between Zelensky and Trump. (🧵1/3)