The Conversion Problem Ukraine and Russia are making the same category of mistake, just with opposite raw materials. Ukraine has technology as a compensatory advantage. Russia has scale as a compensatory advantage.
Map July DS - 167km² expansion including 29 km² red and 138 km² grey. *no updates for July 31.
Drone July 4951 reported by Air Forces 4299 intercepted 652 missed There is no detailed information but some attacks contain 30% of jet drones.
All AD positions mapped by @jembob.bsky.social Pantsir, radar, and S-300/400 positions, both former and recent. You may notice a convenient gap toward the Flamingo Highway.
Triage the Grinder Man the drone units first — this should already be settled policy, not a proposal. The catch is supply, not priority. Drone operations need recruits with above-average technical and analytical aptitude, and no amount of urgency expands that pool overnight.
@monstars.bsky.social · 3w agoInitiative on Credit There's a lot of noise about AFU's long-term strategy — a patchwork of undermanned units instead of something cleaner. Strip away the specifics and the whole debate comes down to one contest: who holds initiative.
Initiative on Credit There's a lot of noise about AFU's long-term strategy — a patchwork of undermanned units instead of something cleaner. Strip away the specifics and the whole debate comes down to one contest: who holds initiative.
Ria Novosti and DS comparison ірщц 2500km² difference, by far the most russian optimistic public source, yet behind MoD RF at almost all the fronts.
Equation of the Meat Grinder: M × V = C × G M (Meat Supply): Available assault infantry. V (Grinder Velocity): Rate at which troops are committed into assaults. C (Casualty Rate): Average losses incurred. G (Ground Gained): Territory captured (km²).
Will be the first mass attack of post PAC3 era. Lots of hits, lots of damage, lots of whine - can be worse. 326/351 Drones 31/33 Kh-101 0/23 Iskander 0/6 Zircon 6/6 Kalibr 34 locations hit, 16 damaged.
Saratov has finally filled all of its front-line obelisks. A total of 3404 names have already been carved, with a backlog of about 1600 names spanning 10.5 months. The current Mediazona estimate stands at 5200, aligning with the official figures. 5 of 7 blank pillars are already booked.
Digitalized the lie. Difference between MoD and DS is 1900 km² Difference between MoD and Suriyak 1950 km² Screen isnt properly aligned, but good enough to understand the scale.
The Price of Depth Every step into a deep grey zone has the same weakness built into it: depth. Push a kilometer forward and the position at the tip gets a kilometer farther from reliable supply and rotation. Every kilometer away is a kilometer nobody's coming to help you from.
Massive combined drone and missile attack. Smaller than expected, but effective. Many seemingly random locations were hit, while only a few ballistic missiles were intercepted. 476/496 drones 32/34 Kh-101 4/24 Iskander-M 8/8 Kalibr 4/4 Kh-59 0/4 Zircon 33 locations hit, 18 damaged by debris
June Drone competition Russia intercepted 11617 Ukrainian drones. Ukraine reported 5749 Russian.
@monstars.bsky.social · last mo.Reported drones. Ukraine is on track of 11K drones in June while russia will barely make 6K. What is happening?
Reported drones. Ukraine is on track of 11K drones in June while russia will barely make 6K. What is happening?
Time as a Weapon Russian forces gained about 765 km² in the first half of the year. Some of that came from pushes into buffer zones in Sumy and Kharkiv regions — land that looks good on a map for domestic audiences, but doesn't change much on the ground. The rest is the real offensive.
While Mediazona updates are boring, GSUA–Mediazona surplus should be interesting to follow. Pre-Avdiivka, the balance stood at 4K, rising to 6K after Avdiivka by the end of 2023. 2024: 22K by October, plus another 17K by 2025. 2025: 110K not yet published. 2026: only 2K reported, 69K pending.
Different armies fight different wars, with different victory conditions. Russia is fighting for land. Ukraine is fighting for independence. That distinction matters because success is measured differently for each side.
@monstars.bsky.social · 2mo agoPaper Armies: Counting the Wrong Things There is a chronic habit in conflict coverage: stack two armies side by side on a spreadsheet and declare a winner. Ukraine and Russia are no exception, and virtually every such comparison is useless.
The long-expected massive strike turned out to be below expectations. The ballistic was substantial, but the cruise missile and drone were on the lower end. 582/611 Drones 15/34 Ballistic missiles 30/30 Cruise missiles 5/6 Zircon 42 locations hit, 12 damaged wit debris. AD did remarkable job.
Paper Armies: Counting the Wrong Things There is a chronic habit in conflict coverage: stack two armies side by side on a spreadsheet and declare a winner. Ukraine and Russia are no exception, and virtually every such comparison is useless.
AFU hit Armiansk and Stavky bridges over the channel, the nearest crossing is near Myrne, next crossings are in Kalanchak. Kalanchar - main node to supply Kherson occupation forces. What is more important all the traffic now pushed into a single road.
@monstars.bsky.social · 2mo agoArmiansk will remain a bottleneck for a while
The Henichesk route was hit and closed, leaving Chaplynka as the only remaining route. The Novooleksiivka – Novotroitske section has no viable detours. Russians should probably start working on pontoon crossings to prevent Crimea from becoming an island.
