On fake polls, "Demoralization Operations,” and the 2026 elections....... A new conversation with @tbonier.bsky.social 👇 www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/fake-polls...

Fake Polls, “Demoralization Operations,” And The 2026 Elections - A New Conversation With Tom Bonier

In elections across the country Republicans have repeatedly “flooded the zone” with favorable polls. With Trump’s new social media post it appears they are intent to do it again

hopiumchronicles.com

For those claiming fraud because Spencer Pratt did worse as the later ballots were counted, this chart is of the registered Dem share advantage over registered GOPs by each day of ballot returns.

This is interesting - I charted out the Dem advantage among new registrants in NC, by week, going back to 2015, broken out by race/ethnicity.

Shameless personal plug: are any of my Capitol Hill/campaign/advocacy folks interviewing for interns? My daughter is finishing her freshman year at UMD, has experience with campaign and official office internships in the MD legislature (and has even testified before the MD Senate!).

I've lagged on my intention to sporadically share data, when we get it, on recent special elections where we've seen large swings to Dems, looking under the head in an effort to get a sense of what drove these results and what they might mean for November. Back at it - IASD01.

Join us for "It's the Democracy, Stupid" today at 1pm ET! @eisendrath.net is joined by veteran Democratic strategist @tbonier.bsky.social to discuss data, democracy and what the midterms look like for Democrats and more. Subscribe for free to watch: open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Wow, the Dem primary turnout among Hispanic voters in Texas is going to be giving the GOP sweats for the next 8 months. Take Zapata County - turnout in the Dem primary there yesterday was 143% the total number of votes Harris won in the 2024 general election. That's wild.

I made this monster of a chart to show the partisan split of the early/abs vote in the TX primary by age/race/gender. You can see why Republicans must be worried about what they're seeing in the turnout data.

A short thread on letting go of Zombie, pre-Trump 2025-2026 understanding of politics...... We are in a new era. Strategists must stay close to the events of today, to the data in front of us, and not bring old understandings to cloud or hamper with what must be done now. 1/

Simon Rosenberg@simonwdc.bsky.social · 8mo ago

I think Dem strategists and comms/data folks need to recognize that we are in a period of discontinuity. What's happening now is not like what's come before. It's all new. And we need to stay close to the data that's in front of us, not bring old fights into the ones we now find ourselves in.

We have the turnout data now from the 2025 election in PA that saw the Dems sweep the statewide judicial races, as well as downballot races. Dem turnout swamped a depressed GOP base. If I were GOPs, I'd be more than a little worried about the upcoming midterms.

Look at turnout by age/party in New Jersey - Dems outperformed GOPs in turnout % among every age <45, with the biggest advantage among 21 and 22 year olds (+10% Dem turnout).

There you have it. With Davidson County reporting every precinct now, TN7 turnout is at 179,634, just barely short of the 181,822 turnout in the 2022 general election. I wouldn't be surprised if it exceeds it when all votes are counted.

Just in the last few mins more votes have come in, and total turnout in this special stands at 96% of the 2022 November election. With more votes coming in Nashville, it could EXCEED 2022. The GOP can't explain this double digit swing away with their old excuses of low turnout.

Tom Bonier@tbonier.bsky.social · 9mo ago

The Dem (Behn) will fall short in the TN7 special, but what happened was a double digit margin swing from last year. GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November. That's not true here...

The Dem (Behn) will fall short in the TN7 special, but what happened was a double digit margin swing from last year. GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November. That's not true here...

Davidson County dropped 21 of 58 precincts eday vote. An incredibly strong performance for Behn, but just not enough of an overperformance in terms of swing or turnout to overcome the +22 GOP baseline in the district.

It looks like Perry County is the first TN7 County to fully report (or very close to it). Trump carried it by 69 pts, Van Epps won it by 55. So a massive 14 pt margin swing to Dems, but not the 22pts necessary districtwide. This is one small county, but Behn will need more.

Davidson County (Nashville) early/abs vote is in, and it is solid for Behn. 85% - a strong performance for the Dem candidate. So... now we have to see how long it will take to report Election Day vote, but kudos to the election officials in TN for getting a quick release of EVAV.

Here's an interesting one - Trump won the early/abs vote in Montgomery County, TN by about 21 pts last year. Behn (the Dem) won the EVAV this year by about 3 pts. That 24 pt swing would be enough for Behn to win... the issue is...

One reason I'm looking forward to a competitive Dem presidential primary in '28: it's good for the party and will boost Dem registration. These stats are for NY statewide, in the 5 weeks around this year's primary. Dem reg was 3x what it was in the same period 4 years ago.

And now to pivot away from politics in advance of the Thanksgiving break... any of my folks here into astrophotography, and willing to answer annoying questions from an extreme novice from time to time?

Evidence that the massive swing among young voters back to Dems that we saw in NY, VA, and NJ earlier this month is not limited to those states. Take PA: from Eday '24 to Jan 20th, young new regisrants were +5R. In the last month of this year's election they were +24D.

Looking at the new voter registrations in PA over the past year+ shows some very interesting trends. Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.

This is actually a really interesting conversation with @tbonier.bsky.social about one of the biggest issues plaguing Democrats right now, which is poor voter registration numbers. But there are also a lot of fun, nerdy data discussions here, too. youtu.be/adtKie3Rqjo?...

The Huge MISTAKES Democrats Have Made In The Trump Era | Chuck Todd Politics Podcast

YouTube video by The Chuck ToddCast

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In the immediate aftermath of Charlie Kirk's murder, I saw a fair amount of speculation as to whether or not we would see a "Charlie Kirk Effect" in new voter registrations. It's still too early to fully answer this question, but there's not much evidence of it, as of now.

Our mission has always been about giving our clients the tools/data they need to reach their targets. Which is why we built the Media Buying Platform. Read more about how it can be your secret weapon, while making your valuable ad spend go much further. www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we...

Why We Built the Media Buying Platform

In today’s digital advertising landscape, political campaigns face a paradox. While digital advertising is more powerful and targetable than ever, the infrastructure behind it is increasingly opaque, ...

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I'll be on with Edwin shortly!

Edwin Eisendrath@eisendrath.net · last yr.

Today on WCPT820AM & @heartlandsignal.bsky.social: we'll unpack this jawdropping week with my incredible guests: + @swingleft.bsky.social + @davidpepperoh.bsky.social + @nicholsuprising.bsky.social + @tbonier.bsky.social 🤳Stream 1-4pm CT bit.ly/3DAcG8s

In case you missed here, here's the recording of my session with @simonwdc.bsky.social yesterday. It's a bit of a good news/bad news presentation, but the bottom line is, there are great opportunities in front of us. www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/dems-need-...

Dems Need To Get Serious About Partisan Voter Registration - My Conversation With Tom Bonier (And A Presentation Too)

I will be in Santa Fe, New Mexico Sunday night from 5 to 7pm MT - join us!

hopiumchronicles.com

Tom Bonier@tbonier.bsky.social · last yr.

I'll be joining @simonwdc.bsky.social later today to share some data/analysis for the first time publicly, focused on what happened in 2024 and where things stand now. You can view it here... open.substack.com/live-stream/...?

I'll be joining @simonwdc.bsky.social later today to share some data/analysis for the first time publicly, focused on what happened in 2024 and where things stand now. You can view it here... open.substack.com/live-stream/...?

LIVE SOON: Tom Bonier Comes By With Some New Data and Analysis

Starting Jun 20 at 2:15 PM EDT

open.substack.com

Trump is the biggest fuck up in American history.

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · last yr.

New Gallup poll finds an all-time high in the share of Americans saying their financial situation is “getting worse”

Over on The Hellsite, JD Vance has now functionally called for an end to due process for migrants. His argument is riddled with deceptions, bad faith, and embarrassingly awful logic. I think it needs a real response, so here's what I put up over there. First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/