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Stefano DellaVigna

@sdellavi.bsky.social

Behavioral economists at UC Berkeley

3 Posts791 Follower34 Folgt
Eva Vivalt@evavivalt.bsky.social · 8mo ago

🚨 New working paper! How well do people predict the results of studies? @sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇

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Brian Nosek@briannosek.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Very interesting work by @evavivalt.bsky.social and @sdellavi.bsky.social. Particularly intriguing is the finding that a surprising negative relationship between confidence and accuracy is accounted for by a subset of persistently overconfident forecasters.

Eva Vivalt@evavivalt.bsky.social · 8mo ago

🚨 New working paper! How well do people predict the results of studies? @sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇

Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)@socscipredict.bsky.social · 11mo ago

📣 Interested in making more forecasts? Want to get paid for doing so? Apply for the SSPP Forecasting Panel! Panelists receive $400 a year + a $300 bonus for high accuracy. Apply here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/09... @cega-uc.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social

Apply to Join our SSPP Forecasting Panel 2.0!

Would you like to stay informed about the latest developments in social science research, assess your forecasting accuracy, and receive financial compensation for your participation in the process? Ap...

socialscienceprediction.org

Justin Wolfers@justinwolfers.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Not quite sure how to put it all in words, but I just spent an extraordinary day celebrating my dissertation adviser, Larry Katz. Feeling grateful, proud, and (re-) inspired. Larry has raised so many extraordinary economists that being in the same room as them was overwhelming.

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Al Roth@alroth.bsky.social · last yr.

I was the AEA's President Elect as the first Trump term began. We worried about government statistics then, and appointed a committee that included members (such as Google's Chief Economist) who might be in a position to help make reliable statistics available if the government went dark. #econsky

Prof Dynarski@dynarski.bsky.social · last yr.

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements This is a big deal

August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations
Eva Vivalt@evavivalt.bsky.social · last yr.

New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict? Try your hand at it: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social

Forecasting the SSPP Research Results

Increasingly, researchers gather forecasts ex ante about the results of their research studies. Ex post, this allows for a comparison with the results to gauge contributions to the literature. But wha...

socialscienceprediction.org

Eva Vivalt@evavivalt.bsky.social · last yr.

This was a really nicely-done survey - strongly encourage people to check it out! Congrats to the winners!

Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)@socscipredict.bsky.social · last yr.

🏆 Winner Announced! 🏆 Congratulations to Alexander Coutts & Séverine Toussaert — winners of the 2025 SSPP Outstanding Use of Forecasts Award ($10,000) for “Beliefs about choice reversals”! See the winning survey here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/f6...