koenfucius

@koenfucius.bsky.social

Accidental behavioural economist koenfucius.substack.com

We have a predicting brain—also for language: it anticipates what will come next when others speak. But is that like an LLM? Not quite, new research suggests. We take into account a larger linguistic structure, rather than statistics: buff.ly/ISg767u

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Prof Matt Grawitch relates his chatbot journey: from despair at hallucinations and sycophancy, via the dwindling efficacy of catching students’ unauthorized use, to the aha! moment—why not teach them how to use them responsibly?—and an accidental book: buff.ly/sObz4IX

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Anticipating trumps remembering Research in the Netherlands by Nawijn et al suggests holidaymakers are happier than non-vacationers… at least *before* their vacation; afterwards there’s no statistically significant happiness difference between them: buff.ly/YshTZAD

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Investments produce a better medium-to-long term return than savings. But many people are reluctant to put their nest egg at risk, and lose out. The finance industry spotted the opportunity and gave us all the chance to be Gamblers up to a point: buff.ly/9UnDT6M

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Topkok Marco Pierre White was intrinsiek gedreven om een almaar betere kok te worden, en werd de jongste ooit die drie Michelin-sterren verzamelde. En toen stopte hij. Is dat niet vreemd? De warme gloed van intrinsieke motivatie heeft brandstof nodig: buff.ly/sKPeIWt

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Are we terminally risk-averse for throwing away a 50% chance of winning £1 million (with an expected value of £500,000) in return for a puny £50k? No, we’re not. We are all gamblers up to a point, and we sensibly decide where that point is: buff.ly/9UnDT6M

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George Akerlof’s classic “Market for Lemons” paper, showing how incompletely informed buyers, who offer an average price for all products irrespective of their (actual, yet unknown to them) quality, can cause market collapse—annotated by Fermat's Library: buff.ly/VAew7hl

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Nieuw inhaalstukje, net gepubliceerd op Is dat niet vreemd? Het idee dat intrinsieke motivatie nobel is, en niet mag worden besmet met materieel gewin, is misplaatst. We verlangen naar erkenning, ook wanneer onze motivatie intrinsiek is: buff.ly/1SW7OhR

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Data, facts and figures are necessary but to make people take notice you need Impact, Communication and Persuasion they’re of little use, writes Dave Trott—and for that, you need visuals. The lady with the lamp showed the way: buff.ly/R1fF2Gc

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Toxic nature Plant-induced itches and insect-originated painful stings are among the perils of an otherwise pleasant late summer walk. Two toxicologists explain a couple of examples of nature’s chemical warfare—poison ivy and bee stings: buff.ly/vo0n1A8

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Some TikTok adverts are more engaging than others. A new study identifies and rates 4 distinguishing characteristics (informality of speech, rise and fall of sound, colourfulness, and visual prominence), and examined the link with user engagement: buff.ly/855Q8P0

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AI seems abundant, but that is because we don’t see the resources and energy used to answer queries, whether seeking a cure for cancer or creating a cat video. What are the hard limits on AI use, and how will tradeoffs be made? New research explores: buff.ly/ZetDZfl

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Research by Guido et al suggests face and pareidolian adverts attract greater attention than others—when exposure times are short, people instinctively seek faces in advertising, but attention wanes for longer exposure times: buff.ly/nzUy8sU

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AIs may be sycophantic, but that doesn’t stop them nudging users away from initial polarized leanings in decisions across moral/non-moral, objective/subjective, strategic non-strategic, and complex/simple tasks, research by Conlon & Schwardmann suggests: buff.ly/xka8VX2

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We kunnen best wel een en ander uitrekenen (soms met wat mechanische hulp 😎), maar als het erop aankomt te kiezen tussen een gok wagen of veilig spelen, dan gebruiken we onze intuïtie. Is dat niet vreemd? ICYMI, Gokkers tot op zekere hoogte: buff.ly/T2iA7tj

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