Marco Petagna

@petagna.bsky.social

BSc MSc Media Advisor & Senior Operational Meteorologist UK Met Office Parent to 2 mini daxies Love running Views & opinions my own @Petagna on X

Very interesting output developing from the ECMWF/GFS models 10hpa 60N zonal mean zonal winds teetering on a reversal W to E To confirm how unusual an event that would be this time of yr, the bottom thin red line on the EC (left graphic) denotes the 10th percentile of climate

BildBild

Further line convection showing up on tonight's cold front sweeping eastwards across England and Wales tonight..timings below.. Line convection = narrow bands of rain embedded in the front with additional intensity, and gusty winds

BildBildBild

The jetstream (red arrow pic 1) left exit (pic2) engaging with storm Boelo helping it to strengthen The jet much further north now though than with storm Austen yesterday (pic3), hence its more northerly track & hence its impacts being felt more across the N of the UK this time

BildBildBild

1/2 Now that the El Nino seems to be having an influence on our later Autumn (into early winter) weather, bringing an increased chance of wet and windy +NAO patterns, it's interesting to have a look into the likely teleconnections for later winter.. See 2/2

The jetstream (red) cutting across Storm Austen this evening Cold, unstable air on the jet's northern side digging in from the NW, helping to create the vigorous hook cloud circulating around the storm centre, along with the strongest wind gusts which arrive in the coming hrs

Bild