Marko Rummelsburg
@markorummelsburg.bsky.social
Space Weather Enthusiast, Berlin ☞ spacewx.org ☞ raumwetter.de #AuDHD 🏳️🌈
A ton of magnetic flux is emerging near a trans-equatorial coronal hole in the centre of the visible solar disk. The resulting anemone-shaped sunspot group 4493 recently produced an M2.5-class solar flare.
Solar Synoptic Map - quiet sun, flare activity near/behind the SE limb only 👀 - quite large trans-equatorial coronal hole to the east, its fast wind may arrive in 4-7 days
Stunning plasma ballet during a long-duration flare event near the south-eastern↙︎ limb of the Sun (7 hours of SDO AIA 171, AIA 211, AIA 131)
Solar flares and CMEs (solar storms) near the southeastern limb of the sun ↙︎ [GOES SUVI 131, 195 + 284/195/171 base difference]
The eruption of a core filament (sunspot group 4485) lets the surrounding filaments wiggle. A CME (solar storm) towards SW↘︎, a Type II and a Type IV radio burst as well as a long duration C6.0 flare (again) have been observed. A coronal wave is visible, moving from SW↘︎ to NE↖︎.
Synoptic drawing of the solar disk - Many small fragmented coronal holes make the solar wind forecast difficult - Sunspot group 4485 is about to leave the visible disk - Minor growth of sunspots NW of the central meridian - Severe decay of former X-flare player 4482
CME from sunspot group 4485 in the SW of the Sun. Its shock (but probably not the core) may reach us around 13 July. It's possible that this CME amplifies the preceding CME with potentially Earth-directed components. The eruption was accompanied by a C6.0 Long Duration flare. (1/2)
Massive filament eruption near the NE limb of the Sun caused a large coronal mass ejection (CME). A type II radio burst was detected and energetic electrons shortly after the eruption. The CME could enhance the intensity of the approaching fast wind stream from coronal hole 73–
Complex sunspot group 4482 in the southeast of the Sun has produced an impulsive moderate-strong M4.5 solar flare. A filament erupted spectacularly, however large parts of it have been reabsorbed.
☀️ Solar Synoptic Map 🔴 Active regions 4479 and 4478 are leaving the visible disk, strong flares are still possible. 🔴 Active region 4482 near the east limb is an x-flare player, let's see if it survives. 🔴 Fast solar wind from coronal hole CH73– can be expected in 1-4 days.
10 days of an active, flaring Sun (SDO AIA 94 + AIA 131)
I suppose one of the eruptions seen in this animation was responsible for the recent G3 geomagnetic storm. (SDO AIA 94, AIA 131, AIA 131 Running Difference, AIA 211 Base Difference)
Two strong solar flares (M6.7 and M6.3) from regions 4479 and 4478. The first flare triggered the second one. The latter is associated with a strong microwave radio burst up to 18 GHz. A coronal wave circulating around the red field lines is visible and two CMEs towards west and southwest. (1/2)
All about the 5 CMEs that are heading more or less towards the Earth (charts, videos, text) spacewx.org/flare-firewo...
Flare Fireworks and CME Parade - spaceWX.org
Several CMEs expected to arrive from 3 July; chances of aurora in the mid-latitudes; very active Sun; further flares and CMEs still possible
spacewx.org
The coronal mass ejections of the past three days in GOES CCOR-1 and SOHO LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery. None of them has significant parts that clip the Sun-Earth axis. How hard we get hit by them will remain unclear until they passed. I'm not super excited.
Solar Synoptic Map - high chance/risk for M-class flares and CMEs - elevated chance/risk for X-class flares and fast CMEs - elevated risk for a Solar Energetic Particle event All sunspot groups are magnetically connected, one event can trigger another one elsewhere
X-1.1 flare from region 4479 N of the solar centre with type II and IV radio emissions, and a CME strongly deflected NNE. An almost full halo is visible in CCOR-1 coronagraph - the shock and some minor ejecta could hit earth in 2-3 days, the bulk of the CME will likely miss us. (1/3)
☀️ Current sunspot groups on the visible solar disk: A lot of growth and magnetic flux emergence everywhere as if they were preparing for the big explosion.
CME arrived with a nice shock-like feature; interplanetary magnetic field is not that strong (below 10 nT), let's see if there's more to come…
Marko Rummelsburg@markorummelsburg.bsky.social · last mo.Whatever that structure was, it has disappeared and did not arrive at earth.
Whatever that structure was, it has disappeared and did not arrive at earth.
Marko Rummelsburg@markorummelsburg.bsky.social · last mo.The CMEs from 26 June might arrive earlier (and stronger) than predicted. Extrapolated trajectory suggests that an arrival on 29 June is possible.
Solar Synoptic Map - Elevated risk/chance for stronger flares, CMEs and fast CMEs by any of the sunspot groups on the visible solar disk
The CMEs from 26 June might arrive earlier (and stronger) than predicted. Extrapolated trajectory suggests that an arrival on 29 June is possible.
Sunspot group 4478 – currently a relatively stable bipolar region, with some magnetic flux emerging in its intermediate section. As soon as the polarities begin to mix or move closer together, the likelihood of stronger eruptions increases.
Solar Synoptic Map - The whale-shaped trans-equatorial coronal hole CH71– is currently bringing us fast solar wind and elevated geomagnetic activity – Most significant sunspot group is complex and large 4478 in the east, it seems to be growing - elevated risk for stronger flares or CMEs
Solar activity: Elevated risk/chance for M/X-class flares and CMEs from complex sunspot groups 4473 (3 subgroups) and 4472. Recent CMEs have been minor because the cluster is trapped between two coronal holes of opposite polarity with a lot of 'closed' magnetic field lines above (streamer belt).
Solar Synoptic Map A large trans-equatorial coronal hole could bring fast solar wind in a week, maybe linear increase of the solar wind's speed due to its shape (SWPC sees 3 C.H.s). A cluster of sunspot groups in the SE is producing M-class flares and small CMEs. Potential for more activity.
