Josh Wolfe

@wolfejosh.bsky.social

Co-Founder @Lux Capital | Trustee @SfiScience Santa Fe Inst | Chair @CiPrep Coney Island Prep (Brooklyn) | Co-Founder of Carson, Quinn & Bodhi w/ @ltwolfe

4/ Headlines herald HANGOVER of what was or HARBINGER of what will be low rates brought future returns forward pushed past risks out now reverting what worked in recent past, won’t work in near future MASSIVE misallocations + excess indebtedness built up Markets may FALL 30%+

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3/ Everyone wants to be invested TODAY––where they ought’ve been 5yrs ago EXPECT -widespread surprises -large layoffs -big LP pullback (OVERcalled/overallocated) -GP stress (UNDER-reserved; under duress) -punishing pay2pays + hi structured terms -small funds = existential risk

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2/ from STRIFE to STRIVE -Lux top 10 co’s have warchests nearly $5B of cash -PAST prudence ought lead to powerful FUTURE potential -new rounds 50-80% LOWER -ownership (entry price) x outcome (exit price) x positiong sizing (based on incremental returns on incremental capital)

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1/ Just released. New Lux LP letter. Q4 2022… (a few LPs have said it has ome of our boldest calls + positioning in a decade––based on what we believe happens next in MARKETS + MACRO—even as cutting-edge science + technology marches ahead…)

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1/ Just released. New Lux LP letter. Q4 2022… (a few LPs have said it has ome of our boldest calls + positioning in a decade––based on what we believe happens next in MARKETS + MACRO—even as cutting-edge science + technology marches ahead…)

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