Omar Chaudhuri

@omarchaudhuri.bsky.social

Chief Intelligence Officer at Twenty First Group

... and to what extent that is portable to Man United. Our research shows that a manager's previous record is less predictive of how he will perform in a new role than how the previous coach performed at that club. (5/5)

Pretty astonishing result in the NWSL today: Kansas City Current knocked out at home in the first round of the playoffs by 8th seed Gotham FC having put in - by far - the most dominant regular season record in the league’s history. US sports fans accept it, European men’s football fans would never…

How pre-season expectations for clubs have varied since 2015: - Puts in context NEW & AVL's quick rise - MCI forecast for 78 points, their lowest since 16/17 - Expectations up at EVE, but below pre-2022 - Market's view of BRE has been pretty consistent over time, save for going into 23/24

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My hot take on the England-India series is that it was a great series but nowhere near as good as the 2023 Ashes for consistent drama and see-sawing. There were some pretty slow days (by admittedly high modern standards) and only one genuinely good pitch in the whole series. But an epic finish.

Amazingly weird odds scenarios playing out here because of the skewed draw - England winning but their odds of reaching the final per our model has gone from 47% before Netherlands were ahead, to 26% now, while France have gone from 16% to 33% after falling behind.

By my maths, Alcaraz was a minimum of 41 points from victory when Sinner was 1 point away. The only other sport that can parallel these scenarios (I think) is test cricket - a last-wicket pair needing over 50 to win. Makes for such great sport

Not seen this parallel drawn, but United’s win yesterday reminded me of Liverpool’s against Dortmund in 2016. Europa League quarter final, new manager, centre back with the winner. Liverpool’s perhaps more dramatic thanks to the away goals rule.

My first sight of Grand Slam Track this evening. Love MJ and attempts at new things in sport. But first impressions matter, and all a bit amateurish: 1) Empty stadium 2) Sound issues on broadcast 3) Really poor explanation video on format On the plus side: Steve Cram

I missed this last week - Barcelona hadn’t lost a league game that wasn’t a dead rubber in six years. They hadn’t dropped a single point in 12 months. And then they lose, at home, to a team in the relegation zone. Hard to think of many bigger upsets in any league, anywhere.

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Of all the takes on the UCL, I thought this was the most perceptive. It wasn’t as good as I’d hoped it would be, but it was better than before. And I think the likes of the EFL and groups of European leagues should think about how lots of games at once can make for fun TV for (informed) fans

Rory Smith@rorysmith.bsky.social · 2y ago

Think what's especially interesting (and this theory is a joint production with @migueldelaney.bsky.social) is that this is a different sort of made-for-TV spectacle. It's not television showing the product. It's that television itself is the product.

Comparing Leicester 15/16 and Forest 24/25: Pre-season betting market: LEI - 6th-favourites for relegation, projected 39 points FOR - 4th-favourites for relegation, projected 38 points By gameweek 10: LEI - 5th, 19 points, projected 10th & 52 points FOR - 3rd, 19 points, projected 11th & 51 points

Some potentially interesting MD8 narratives emerging. PSV at home to Liverpool, who may be guaranteed 1st - a PSV win would put pressure on City/PSG, maybe Real. And Stuttgart host PSG, who have City next - could be winner takes all. Though currently not looking like much competition for 24th.

Norway, Japan and Brazil’s leagues an advert for competitive balance. Bodo/Glimt are champions on just 2 points per game, the lead switching in the 2nd-last week. J League has 3 teams in the title race on the last day, with leaders Vissel on 1.9 PPG. Botafogo haven’t won since 1995 & may trip up yet

Striking parallel with the league table after Liverpool beat City at home in November 2019, en route to winning the league. Back then, the same points as today but from one fewer game, and a point smaller lead over second.

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Putting India's comeback win in Australia into context: - 8% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in the first innings in test cricket history, and 5% (13/244) since 1900. - 14% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in Australia in the first innings, and 9% (3/34) since 1900.