Our final fringe of the 2026 conference season here in Aberdeen with the SNP. 17.00 in the conference centre today! New polling on perceptions of the Government, independence and where the SNP goes next. Join us later!

In PMQs Burnham praised Badenoch's conference speech criticism of some Reform politicians definition of Englishness. We played that speech clip to half our sample. Among those who saw it Badenoch's net favourability jumps 13 to +21 Farage's drops 11 to -35 Burnham's flat at +14

The Conservatives seem to be enjoying a conference bounce as they jump to second in our voting intention, while Labour lead by 4. 🌹 LAB 28% (-1) 🌳 CON 24% (+3) ⏩ REF 21% (-3) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟢 GREEN 7% (-) ⚫ RES: 5% (+1) N = 2,101 | Fieldwork 9-12/10 | Changes w 5/10

Think strongly in PM’s interest to nip in the bud the idea rejoin needn’t involve a second referendum. Public think it needs one, and risk for rejoin side is debate about mechanism for consent bleeds into debate about merits reinforcing arguments that rejoin is anti democratic

More in Common reconfirm the commin sense consensus that this is not an especially contested question between generations or political tribes (to the apparent surprise of some media + political elites, on right + left)

Wider context to the Holborn result: this chart shows the proportion of Labour’s 2024 vote going to different parties. Post Gorton over 1 in 10 Labour 24 voters were going to the Greens - that number has more than halved as Labour’s retention improved, particularly on the left.

3000+ majority for Labour, comfortable and a sign of Burnham’s gains on the left. Labour vote barely drops. Green vote significantly up from 2024, but less impressive if you assume lots of Feinstein 2024 voters went to the Greens. Bad result for the Greens but not at worst end

Kemi Badenoch wants a left-right argument about the economy. She sees an opportunity on identity "against the identity politics of the left and the right" to oppose ethno-nationalism on the right, with a conservative case for high expectations on integration that migrants + minorities can pass

Think that’s the toughest I’ve seen Tory leadership on Reform since their emergence as a serious political force, directly taking on claims about Englishness and identity from some Reform politicians. Feels a significant change in approach.

In our latest voting intention, Labour hit 29% their highest since 2024, Reform move to 2nd & Greens fall to lowest since August 2025 🌹 LAB 29% (+2) ⏩ REF 24% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟢 GREEN 7% (-2) ⚫ RES: 4% (-2) N 2,088 | Dates 3-5/10 | Change w 29/09

As during the 2019-24 period, it is worth keeping in mind *where* focus groups are sampled from. 2024 Labour voters *should* be positive about the party/PM - even if they have drifted away since the election... this sort of discussion should only partially reassure Labour.

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · 2w ago

🧵On Thursday eve we held a focus group of 2024 Labour voters many of whom had become disillusioned under Starmer to find out how Burnham's speech had gone down. Have written it for @theguardian.com it was the most positive feedback for a politician in a long time www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Challenge for Tory conference in one graph. This year has seen the Tory leader significantly improve her public perception - having trailed last year Badenoch is now much more popular than her party. But Tory voting intention is only v.marginally up. Can she drag up that navy blue line?

🧵On Thursday eve we held a focus group of 2024 Labour voters many of whom had become disillusioned under Starmer to find out how Burnham's speech had gone down. Have written it for @theguardian.com it was the most positive feedback for a politician in a long time www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

In this week’s voting intention, Labour's lead widens as Reform fall to their lowest in over 18 months. 🌹 LAB 27% (+1) 🌳 CON 22% (-1) ⏩ REF 21% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-) 🟢 GREEN 9% (+1) ⚫ RES: 6% (-) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1) ⚪️ OTH 1% (-) N = 2,041 | Fieldwork 25-29/9 | Changes w 18/09

🧵Ahead of Burnham’s speech our latest research looks at the state of Labour and the 3 tests by which public will judge this gov’t. Burnham’s earned his party a rehearing, but has yet to detoxify Labour brand. Only ½ of those who think Burnham is doing a good job would vote Lab

Wonder if the shift to main fiscal event being in Autumn not Spring has made Party Conference a bit of a nightmare for governing parties. Given Budget is weeks away speculation ends up dominating, but you can't answer lots of it so look either evasive or unable to answer big Qs

Special edition of The Opinion Brief podcast from Labour conference. What does our MRP say about the Burnham bounce, a snap election, fragmentation and the battle for the right? Listen below linktr.ee/OpinionBrief...

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The essential weekly update on what the British public thinks and why. A fresh politics podcast brought to you by More in Common UK and Luke Tryl.

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NEW: More in Common's September MRP finds the electoral map has changed dramatically since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister. The model estimates Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, but 76 short of a majority.

From political PoV a key question of Labour conference is can Burnham translate his personal support into a boost for Labour. Starmer’s approval rating was consistently slightly below Labour’s VI. Burnham’s is way above. Question then is which brand drags in which direction.

This table also contradicts the conventional wisdom that Labour lost more votes to left than to right

Pattern of results like this amp pressure on Holborn for Greens. It’s fine for Greens to lose votes in some more rural areas if they start concentrating them in urban centres where they might win more parliamentary seats.Lib Dem efficiency 19->24 a model. But if they lose at both ends it’s a problem

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 3w ago

Blockley (Cotswold) Council By-Election Result: 🌳 CON: 54.7% (+11.0) 🔶 LDM: 29.2% (New) ➡️ RFM: 7.5% (New) 🌍 GRN: 6.9% (-49.5) 🌹 LAB: 1.8% (New) Conservative GAIN from Green. Changes w/ 2022.

We’re off to Liverpool for a series of events at Labour Party Conference. Our main event, ‘Will Burnham rebuild Labour’s coalition?’, is 3pm on Monday. With a fantastic panel, we’re sharing exclusive polling on Burnham’s first months, and what could win back Labour’s lost voters.

Brand new episode of the Opinion Brief including a fantastic conversation with @anooshc.bsky.social of @newstatesman1913.bsky.social on why people think Britain is Broken and ways out of it. tr.ee/fIpTTTZNAV

The Opinion Brief Podcast Official: Instagram, X | Linktree

The essential weekly update on what the British public thinks and why. A fresh politics podcast brought to you by More in Common UK and Luke Tryl.

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Gender split in this poll particularly pronounced. Labour have a big 6 point lead among men over Reform. Whereas among women it's a close Tory-Labour race with Tories just edging ahead in this poll.

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · 3w ago

V.small changes in voting intention as Tories nudge into second & Greens hit joint lowest since October 2025. Lab lead of 3 🌹 LAB 26% (+1)
🌳 CON 23% (+1)
⏩ REF 22% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 11% (+1)
🟢 GREEN 8% (-1)
⚫ RES: 6% (-)
 N = 2,133 | Fieldwork 18-21/9 | Changes w 15/09

V.small changes in voting intention as Tories nudge into second & Greens hit joint lowest since October 2025. Lab lead of 3 🌹 LAB 26% (+1)
🌳 CON 23% (+1)
⏩ REF 22% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 11% (+1)
🟢 GREEN 8% (-1)
⚫ RES: 6% (-)
 N = 2,133 | Fieldwork 18-21/9 | Changes w 15/09

Unsurprising but striking to see how the salience of climate and environment on our issue tracker matches the weather, salience of climate as an issue climbed over the summer through successive heatwaves and has now started to dip a little.

Starting in 20 minutes if you’re at Lib Dem Conference come join us!

Where are Liberal Democrat 2024 voters going? In August they were retaining about 2/3 of them, but losing close to 1 in 10 to Labour & Tories. The former maybe tactical unwind that reverses, the latter more an electoral challenge. Though since March they lose fewer votes to Greens

As Liberal Democrat conference gets properly underway our new polling finds that the “Gail’s test” continues to hold true. Lib Dems over perform their national polling by 7 points among those who say they have a Gail’s on their high street, same with Pret!

On my train to Brighton for the Liberal Democrat Party Conference, where we’ll be holding a series of events! Coming up first. We’ll be releasing new polling and discussing with our panel who and what the Liberal Democrat’s are for! 13.45 tomorrow