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Burnham seems to be commanding the battle for the attention economy 36% have seen content from Burnham - including over half of 18-24 year olds. 16% have seen Farage content, no one else cracks 10%. Some of this will be the prime ministerial pulpit; but it’s lodging with people.

🆕 Voting intention, small changes as Labour lead Reform by 3. But the Liberal Democrats fall to their lowest since the Election

🌹 LAB 27% (-1)
⏩ REF 24% (nc)
🌳 CON 22% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 10% (-2)
🟢 GREEN 9% (+1)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1) N = 3,384 | 31/7-2/8 | Changes w 27/7

Lots of analysis about threat of the Greens usurping Labour on the left. Reform usurping the Tories on the right. But none about how Binface has completely usurped the Monster Raging Looney Party for the joke vote. Another party that just couldn’t adapt to the attention economy

Interesting to see the changes in borough results. Wigan (partly Makerfield effect) and Tameside particularly good Labour recovery on their right flank from May. Manchester City on the left. Stockport Lib Dem squeeze; Tories probably most disappointed going backwards in Trafford.

Both practically and psychologically coming 5th in GM a bad result for the Conservatives. In manchester focus groups heard from a series of voters who liked Badenoch but thought party had blown it in office, simply unwilling to look at the Tories yet after Partygate/mini budget/migration failures.

How do the results in Greater Manchester Mayorality compare to previous elections? While Labour is well down on its 2024 vote it was significantly up on the locals in Greater Manchester, while both Reform and the Greens are down, with Restore Britain not far off 1 in 10 votes.

🆕⚽️ Over 70% of Britons think that FIFA is at least somewhat corrupt, and 4 in 10 that it is very corrupt. Green and Reform voters are the most likely to say that Fifa is very corrupt.

Latest leader approvals 🌹Burnham bumps up to +19, 8 higher than Keir’s high of 11. 🌳Badenoch down slightly to break even 🔶Davey drops back to -11 💚Polanski is at -24 ➡️Farage drops to another low, by far his lowest since the election at -32

Shift in nature of Burnham announcements between week 1/2. Week 1 felt like it was trying to demonstrate (what I think of as) “politics of trying”, small things to make a difference showing govt is trying to help. Week 2 feels like trying to do a more ambitious “politics of can”

🧵Looked quite a bit over past week at appeal of Burnham, what about Badenoch, whose approvals have risen significantly since a low last Autumn, when barely 10% of voters gave her a gross positive approval, to over 30% and higher net approval than Farage, Polanski & Davey.

Our polling of Greater Manchester ahead of Thursday’s by-election shows Bev Craig holding a clear lead. First preference results: 🌹 LAB 39%
⏩ REF 19%
🟢 GREEN 14%
🌳 CON 12%
🔶 LIB DEM 8%
🔵 RESTORE 8%
⚪️ IND 1% N = 1,003 | Fieldwork 11-23/7

Our latest voting intention sees cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24 🌹 LAB 28% (+4)
⏩ REF 24% (-2)
🌳 CON 22% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1)
🟢 GREEN 8% (-3)
🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7

This Poll Q gives good reason to be sceptical about southern backlash against Burnham’s focus on the North of England. Overall a majority say the North gets less than its fair share of attention, and a plurality say the South gets more than its fair share and feelings are asymmetric.

A horrific attack on what is supposed to be a celebration of free expression, community and equality. Defence of those values in the face of hatred/extremism clearly more important than ever.

The Associated Press@apnews.com · 2w ago

German authorities issued a wanted notice for a fugitive suspect in the van ramming near Berlin’s Pride festival that left one person dead and injured at least 16 others. Police had said earlier that they had identified a suspect who has ties to Islamic groups.

How do Brits say they feel about Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister. The top word is hopeful, followed by good and optimistic, though others aren't sure or are indifferent. A smaller number say worried.

Am struck from focus groups this week how much the lack of lectern for Burnham’s No10 speech has cut through and as a Starmer contrast, psychologically seems to have landed as bolder/removing a barrier.

With the World Cup over Thomas Tuchel drops off our approval tracker. But we got a final data point on how England's loss to Argentina affected his rating. While he fell way back from his +36 high, he remained positive at +12 despite criticism of his approach last Wednesday.

A tale of two types of business in Burnham's announcement and where they fit into public opinion. Firstly it does not surprise me vape shops have been targeted - they came up repeatedly in Makerfield focus groups and our previous research found people overwhelmingly want fewer.

Latest episode of Opinion Brief Podcast out now 🌹 Britons’ hopes from Burnham 🏋️ What is a politics of trying? 🥵 Do heatwaves affect public opinion on climate? Listen here tr.ee/KasOq-wGy2

First voting intention of Burnham’s premiership. Labour narrow the gap with Reform to 2 points, the closest since April 2025. ⏩ REF 26% (nc)
🌹 LAB 24% (+2)
🌳 CON 22% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-1)
🟢 GREEN 11% (-1)
🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 3,118 | 21-22/7 | Changes w 12/7

🧵 Welfare reform is going to be top of the agenda for the new govt. How do you avoid the trap last govt into? Our research for @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @trusselluk.bsky.social shows how Burnham might land his pledge of a 'fair and sustainable' approach with the public.

My colleague Anouschka has done some brilliant work with @theguardian.com using our latest MRP and some new polling to work out how different electoral systems would change the composition of Parliament. www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-...

How could Britain look under proportional representation? See the results for your area

These visualisations from exclusive polling modelling show how the UK parliament could change under different voting systems

theguardian.com

🧵Burnham announcements on bills/bus fares have a very 'bread/butter' feel & reprioritise from long term to now. Truth is lots of public are frustrated with 18 years of language around 'tough choices for long term change' that never comes & want govt to show it can help in here/now

Two objections to energy VAT cut I think are misplaced in public opinion terms. Objection 1. So much of cost of living is out of govts hands and international why raise salience and say you can deal with it? Well first salience is already there it’s number 1 driver of misery we hear

Seen a few people saying rough sleeping policy isn’t aimed at median public concern. Quite apart from any policy/moral imperative it really is - rough sleeping comes up time again in focus groups as one of the most visible signs of Broken Britain and community decline!

To call Britain ungovernable is to give up... It suggests that on the issues the public care most about... the government is powerless to deliver. It risks becoming self-fulfilling. The new PM Andy Burnham must embrace the politics of trying, writes @luketryl.bsky.social

Burnham must embrace the politics of trying

To call Britain ungovernable is to give up.

politicshome.com

Most interesting thing from that speech was both in terms of content but also delivery it gave a sense of real urgency that I think better matches the public mood than trying to pitch 'dignified statesman' like previous entrances to Number 10.

Dear Prime Minister, I'm afraid there are no lecterns left, kind regards and good luck.

🆕 Our final MRP of the Starmer Premiership and state of play of parties heading into new govt. Reform are estimated to be by far the largest party though drop back from majority territory from previous models. (Reposted as last post copied previous MRP map)