Latest article for the House magazine, in which I wonder if I have wasted my life learning about leadership elections rules... www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

The Professor Will See You Now: Defenestration

Lessons in political science. This week: defenestration

politicshome.com

More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll: Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats. This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...

Reform, Tories and Greens to hammer Labour with 'loss of up to 18 London MPs'

Tories could gain eight seats, the Greens four and Reform three from Labour

standard.co.uk

Our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll leads the Standard this morning, Labour have a solid lead in the next London mayoral race. The Tories and Reform scrapping for second. www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...

Sadiq Khan may face Laila Cunningham in London mayor race run-off, shock poll reveals

Nigel Farage’s party may beat the Conservatives in the battle for second place after first choice votes are counted in the next London mayoral contest

standard.co.uk

Andy Burnham is setting out to convince the public that ending rough sleeping is possible. He needs to: despite wide acceptance in commentary at the time of its announcement as being a feasible goal, voters think he is less likely to fulfil this pledge than any other – as I found in my polling 👇🏻

"Codifying the messy but broadly workable compromise that exists today would surely use up much of the precious political capital Burnham has managed to build up. So while he may be tempted in the long term to follow through, in the short-term he should probably leave well alone." Me, reluctantly.

Hands off the constitution, Andy

unherd.com

I appeared on CNBC at the crack of dawn this morning to offer some snap analysis of the Clacton by election. I also reflected on Burnham's first month. You can watch some of my comments below. www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

Clacton vote exposes Nigel Farage's polarizing nature: Professor

Nigel Farage is back in Parliament after regaining his Clacton seat, but could a standards probe mean his political comeback is short-lived? Colm Murphy, Senior Lecturer in British Politics at Queen M...

cnbc.com

I asked the public what they made of targets mentioned by/associated with Andy Burnham. Among these targets, their priorities were in the areas he emphasised in his first couple of weeks – but they are sceptical about the time it will take to achieve them. Write-up by @rmcunliffe.bsky.social

Tim Bale@timbale.bsky.social · 4w ago

Good news/bad news for Andy Burnham in @mbarnfield.bsky.social's new @qmulsse.bsky.social polling, nicely summarized by the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social's @rmcunliffe.bsky.social. He's picked the right things to prioritize but there's a lot of pessimism about whether he can make a real difference.

Good news/bad news for Andy Burnham in @mbarnfield.bsky.social's new @qmulsse.bsky.social polling, nicely summarized by the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social's @rmcunliffe.bsky.social. He's picked the right things to prioritize but there's a lot of pessimism about whether he can make a real difference.

Is Andy Burnham already doomed?

New polling suggests the Prime Minister understands what voters want – but has limited time to deliver it

newstatesman.com

➡️ New! MA in Political Theory @qmulsse.bsky.social @qmul.bsky.social Come and study with us 🙂 The MA focuses on justice, global & local; ethics; critical thinking; & much more @drjoehoover.bsky.social @elkeschwarz.bsky.social @georgeboss.bsky.social @bntrnr.bsky.social

Why do fewer people want the government to do more about climate change than five years ago? Maybe because the government is doing something about it. I wrote about how public opinion on net zero is (ironically?) like a thermostat: open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...

The Global Warming Thermostat

Why the public has stopped turning up the heat on climate policy action

open.substack.com

I had a go at exploring what Burnham could actually do, realistically, in the short term. (Always a dangerous choice for a historian...). Despite the structural challenges, on which I'm liable to focus, my answer is not 'nothing'. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp... @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social

What can Andy Burnham actually do? | LSE British Politics

Andy Burnham might be more charismatic than Keir Starmer but the problems he is inheriting go beyond personality. Can he really make a difference?

blogs.lse.ac.uk

What can Andy Burnham actually do? More charisma and better communication skills will be helpful, but what about the structural problems facing the Government? Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social reflects on what's in Burnham's power to do as the new Prime Minister. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

What can Andy Burnham actually do? | LSE British Politics

Andy Burnham might be more charismatic than Keir Starmer but the problems he is inheriting go beyond personality. Can he really make a difference?

blogs.lse.ac.uk

Me, on MP-constituent post. www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

The Professor Will See You Now: Post

Lessons in political science. This week: post

politicshome.com

Me, in the FT on the St Augustine transition in premiers. Also ft Harold Macmillan reading Pride and Prejudice and a reluctant Lord Melbourne. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Why is the Starmer to Burnham transition so long?

Like St Augustine, the assumed new Labour leader appears to want to be prime minister — but not yet

giftarticle.ft.com

Morning! Don't let this be the first face you see, mind. Me for @the-independent.com

There’s one thing that could revive Nigel Farage’s flagging fortunes

For years, I’ve watched the Reform leader’s remarkable political rise – and yet, says Professor Tim Bale, even after a string of poor by-election showings and the simmering scandal over a £5 million ‘...

independent.co.uk

My good colleague @philipjcowley.bsky.social speaking lots of sense (as usual) on Radio 4’s Today in Parliament, on the potential parliamentary management challenges facing an incoming Burnham premiership. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Today in Parliament - 26/06/2026 - BBC Sounds

Alicia McCarthy reports on what lies ahead for Parliament under a new prime minister.

bbc.co.uk

"All of this leaves Britain in a profoundly unstable, even dysfunctional state – unable to come to terms with the fact that it has ambitions and pretensions way beyond both its means and the capacity of its politicians to match them in the real world." Me, cheerful & chipper as ever this morning!

Migration, Brexit, and Starmer's exit: Inside Britain's political meltdown

Political instability leaves Britain in a profoundly dysfunctional state – unable to come to terms with the fact that it has ambitions and pretensions way beyond both its means and the capacity of its...

aa.com.tr

Interested in rebellions during the first session of the parliament - which, helpfully, almost perfectly coincides with the Starmer premiership? Here's a piece I wrote for @robfordmancs.bsky.social's substack, giving rebellion rates, lists of rebels, etc. swingometer.substack.com/p/rebel-rebel

Rebel Rebel

In a guest post, Philip Cowley takes a look at backbench rebellions during Keir Starmer's time as Prime Minister

swingometer.substack.com

How could the assisted dying bill be amended even if MPs seek to use the Parliament Acts (which requires them to pass an identical bill)? From my comments on Radio 4’s Today in Parliament. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

NEW: Andy Burnham’s path to Westminster: How could he become Prime Minister? We talk to @philipjcowley.bsky.social about the parliamentary choreography that could take him to No.10 Plus: Which Private Members’ Bills will be the focus of this parliamentary session? Link in next post.⬇️

I was on Radio 4’s Today in Parliament yesterday, discussing the assisted dying bill. We talked about how the Parliament Acts might be used to pass the bill, and how changes can still be made to it. Around 7:35 in: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

If the Lords does not pass it in the second session, this counts as rejecting the bill for Parliament Acts purposes. Essentially, we would know for sure at the end of the session.

With the news that @laurenedwardsmp.bsky.social will bring back the assisted dying bill, what are the chances of it now becoming law? Supporters face four key challenges - and they have now overcome the first. ⬇️

Absolutely crucial piece of research on misinformation in local news on Facebook, X and Nextdoor by @smfthinktank.bsky.social Full report is here (www.smf.co.uk/publications...) but these are some key findings:

"Bale said that there can be a tendency for political parties to be drawn to talking policies promoted by parties further to the fringes. Farage must resist the temptation to move closer to Restore Britain & Advance UK positions, as doing so would risk damaging his party's overall electoral appeal."

Are New Right-Wing Parties A Problem For Nigel Farage?

Last month, former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe launched a new party: Restore Britain. Some former Reform councillors have signed up. Another former co...

politicshome.com

Pleased to see this one, with @mbarnfield.bsky.social & @karlpike.bsky.social now out in print... onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

<em>Policy Studies Journal</em> | PSO Public Policy Journal | Wiley Online Library

Generating public support for long-term public investment may require understanding what citizens perceive as the “long term” in politics and how these perceptions shape their preferences. Across two...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

In case this week's record-breaking heatwave and/or criticism of net zero from Tony Blair have you thinking about the status of climate change in British politics, I did some polling: open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe... 1/4

Reform UK: the political home of climate scepticism in Britain

As Tony Blair challenges net zero amid a record-breaking May heatwave, new data on what British voters think about environmental policy

open.substack.com

🚨Could the Parliament Acts be used to pass assisted dying? As I say in this clip: 🔵 Never previously used on a PMB 🔵 But explicitly intended to apply to PMBs, not just govt bills 🔵 In practice, not straightforward to do, but possible

Grateful to be back on Radio 4’s Today in Parliament, discussing the assisted dying bill’s prospects following this week’s PMB ballot. Listen here: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

This is valuable work, partly because it counters the idea that you can easily nudge the public into supporting climate policy. A three-hour active workshop increased support from either a minority to... a slightly larger minority, or from a slight majority to... a slightly larger majority.

Susanna Garside@susannagarside.bsky.social · 4mo ago

🚨I have a new paper out in PNAS with my co-authors, @maxbradley.bsky.social @renschazottes.bsky.social and @ninalopezuroz.bsky.social: "Educational policies can strengthen climate coalitions." A thread on what we found (and a great story about doing ambitious research without funding!) [1/9]