AI is the biggest risk everyone already knows about It checks all the boxes: Capex cycle, debt, concentration, speculation These are also the biggest companies in history making this happen If anyone tells you they know how this ends they are delusional awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/the-...

Why is consumer sentiment at all-time lows with the stock market at all-time highs? Inflation? Housing? Wealth inequality? Politics? Social media? Surveys? All of the above? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/why-...

Animal Spirits: Sudden Wealth Syndrome Speedball capitalism What stops the hyperscalers The top 0.1% is really rich The stock mkt doesn't care about higher rates It's a high beta decade Everyone hates inflation but keeps spending $$$ & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/anim...

The 10 year Treasury yield has gone from just under 4% to 5.3% this year Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 14% in 2026 Why aren't rising bond yields hurting the stock market? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/wher...

Nike is now back to 2013 price levels 81% off the highs It feels like a piece of my youth is dying with this stock price

The Agg dates back to 1976 On an inflation-adjusted basis this cycle is the first time in history bonds had negative 10 year real return This is the most brutal bond market of all-time b/c: 1. Rates were too low 2. They rose too fast 3. Inflation awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/a-br...

End of February right before the war started: Inflation 2.4% 10 year Treasury 3.9% Mortgage Rates 6% Oil $67 Gas $3.10 Now: Inflation 3.4% 10 year Treasury 5.2% Mortgage Rates 7.6% Oil $90 Gas $4.43

The day before the Iran war started mortgage rates were 5.99% Now they're 7.58%

Animal Spirits: Will Higher Rates Kill the Stock Market? Rates are ripping Why isn't the stock market going down? Bond yields are attractive The wealth effect is real When will housing bottom? AI personal assistants The best TV shows & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/anim...

The S&P 500 is up ~13% YTD Just 35% of stocks are outperforming the S&P 40% of stocks are down on the year One-quarter of S&P 500 companies are down 10% or worse in 2026 Most stocks are losers awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/most...

10 year Treasury yields bottomed in March 2020 at 0.5% They're now at 5.2% During this period of rapidly rising interest rates the S&P 500 is up 18.8% annualized High rates + high inflation and we still got ~15% real annual returns Strange times awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/stra...

I know all the film geeks love Michael Clayton but this is actually George Clooney’s best serious movie performance (I might be on an island w/this take but I’m ok w/that)

There's a narrative that public market investors are missing out b/c so many companies are staying private for longer Over the past 15 years the Nasdaq 100 is up 20% per year How many VC funds beat that bogey? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/can-...

Housing prices rose ~50% in a few years A LOT of ppl predicted this was another housing bubble and a crash was sure to come It never happened So why didn't we get another housing bubble? Some thoughts: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/why-...

The 3 best shows on TV no one ever talks about: 1. Slow Horses 2. The Agency 3. Silo

So the Fed is probably gonna keep hiking rates Which won't end the war in Iran And probably won't slow down AI hyperscaler spending So consumers get hurt by higher borrowing costs but inflation won't really go lower?

Mortgage rates hit 7.2% today Not great

7% mortgage rates 4% unemployment 5% bond yields 4% cash yields $100 oil $5 gas prices 3.4% inflation Basically all-time highs in the stock market Basically all-time lows in consumer sentiment Something for everyone right now Strange times

Animal Spirits: The Wobbly House of Cards What if there is no AI crash? The chart of the year Why buy and hold is impossible 10 year return projections Why did the Fed raise rates? $30 billion for the Lakers? The best 1980s movie & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/anim...

Crazy but true stat of the day: From 1800 to 1940 the annual inflation rate was just 0.2% per year Prices were just 28% higher in a 140 year time frame Since 1940 it's 3.7% annually or >2,200% in total awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/the-...

23 million US households are worth $1 million or more Yet just 1.5% of the world's population are millionaires Consider yourself lucky if you're this rich There are more rich people than ever today but it’s still a tiny fraction of the world’s population awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/mill...

Question from a reader: I don’t totally understand bonds. Is the yield on the Agg the equivalent of a near guaranteed 5.2% annual return? Some thoughts on 5% yields and why bonds are more governed by math than the stock market: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/5-bo...

This year: Mortgage rates have gone from 6% to 7% 10 year Treasury yields: 4% to 5%. Inflation: 2.4% to 3.4%. Oil prices from less than $60/barrel in Jan to >$100/barrel And the stock market is up double digits but valuations are falling Why? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/why-...

I get why ppl think the Fed should raise rates w/inflation being where it's at but how exactly is forcing higher borrowing costs on households going to help stop the war with Iran?

I don’t know if anyone actually watches this show b/c it’s on Apple but S3 was surprisingly great The first 2 seasons were intriguing but just OK The payoff in S3 was totally worth it Really well done

The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now make up ~40% of the index Every company in the top 10 has a market cap of $1 trillion or more 3 things: 1. This is a bull market phenomenon 2. Almost every other country is worse 3. The fundamentals back it up awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/its-...

Homeownership rates at age 28: Baby boomers - 44% Gen X - 43% Gen Z - 38% At age 36: Baby boomers - 64% Gen X - 61% Millennials - 57% Young ppl were dealt a bad hand in housing But Gen Z will be homeowners too awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/will...

Animal Spirits: Everywhere Millionaires The bull market in wealth The next financial crisis A buying opportunity in bonds? AI is crowding out bonds & construction spending The American Dream is still alive Is college still worth the cost? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/anim...

Good question about having a mid-life crisis w/your investments It's harder to sit through stock market losses w/a bigger portfolio The next stock market crash will be a lot more painful for a new group of wealthier investors w/more $$$ at stake awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/how-...

Some questions: Would inflation be even worse if we weren’t in a housing recession? Are private markets the perfect place to hide fraud? Are colleges screwed? Is NVDA the anti-bubble? How important is the wealth effect to the economy? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/14-q...