Apparently a STEVE was spotted about an hour ago (approx 248 am CDT on Sep 8 ) over North Dakota. Probably visible from neighboring states as well. Looked almost overhead from some shots I’ve seen. Did anyone else see it?

Voting is open for the June photo in my 2027 Awesome Auroras calendar! 41 photos made it in, and the one that comes out on top prints across the June page. Voting runs through Sunday, September 13. 1/5 theauroraguy.com/products/awe...

NOAA SWPC storm levels are useful, but they do not tell the whole story by themselves. When a space weather event results in a G2 or higher forecast, my free alert emails break down the aurora potential in more practical terms, without the jargon or guesswork. go.theauroraguy.com/alerts

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It looks like we are under the influence of the anticipated positive-polarity coronal hole high-speed stream. This has driven IMF field strengths (Bt) above 10 nT and wind speeds are now pushing 500 km/s. Some minor mid-latitude displays could be possible tonight (Monday).

It looks like instead of upgrading the G1 watch due to the direct-hit C5 CME in their ENLIL model, NOAA SWPC has simply extended it to cover Sep 9.

This model run is giving me a bit of cautious optimism... the C5 CME I reported on yesterday and which NASA M2M already modeled as a glancing blow has been modeled by NOAA SWPC as almost a DIRECT HIT, arriving around Sep 8 at 17 UT (12 pm CDT).

A preliminary model from NASA M2M has been ran for this CME: Impact slated for Sep 8 around 1840 UT (140 pm CDT; bad timing). The impact is a glancing blow and timing/severity of impact (if at all) will be complicated due to other CMEs in the path. #heliophysics

Vincent Ledvina@vincentledvina.bsky.social · 3d ago

This CME has not yet been modeled, but early coronagraph images look promising. A C5 flare occured around 1042 UT this morning (Sep 6). At least a partial halo is emerging in CCOR-1, maybe with some slower legs filling out soon. Images are still coming in. Another CME to watch! #heliophysics

Recent images from Maia's tour a couple nights ago! Despite a pretty quiet night of aurora and a long drive almost to Tok, Alaska for clear skies, Maia once again secured a nice aurora for our guests along with these beautiful portraits!

This CME has not yet been modeled, but early coronagraph images look promising. A C5 flare occured around 1042 UT this morning (Sep 6). At least a partial halo is emerging in CCOR-1, maybe with some slower legs filling out soon. Images are still coming in. Another CME to watch! #heliophysics

The HUXt model shows a few CME impacts possible over the coming days, a much better situation than just 24 hours ago as we now have had a couple CMEs with Earth-directed components.

CME extravaganza! Look at all the CMEs currently in the latest NOAA SWPC ENLIL run! There are perhaps 7 or 8 solar storms here. A couple of them may deliver glancing blows to Earth. The first may impact around Sep 7 8 UT (3 am CDT) with some more possible later around Sep 8 1 UT (Sep 7 8 pm CDT).

Being sick while on vacation is NOT fun. Good thing I brought an entire drugstore’s worth of meds just in case of this happening. Hoping this clears up fast so I can better enjoy my time in Europe!

Here is a short clip from SolarDemon showing the eruptive M1 flare from ex-AR 4520 which is technically now unnumbered. Despite not looking like ANYTHING, really, the CME was impressive, and the flare also resulted in an S1 radiation storm at Earth which is ongoing.

The M1 flare from ex-AR 4520 (now decayed but still alive and angry apparently) generated a nice CME which is unfortunately NOT Earth-directed (unsurprising to no one). Modeling by NASA M2M shows that not even the shock will graze Earth.

Just now: A small C8.5 flare from around AR 4524 with a definite yet narrow CME launched with a southern bias. Unsure if this will have any effect on Earth. We'll need to see coronagraph images + models to confirm.

Pip squeak M1 flare just now from a bright spot that does not have an AR designation. Funnily enough, it does look eruptive, so we'll see if the CME has enough eastward propagation to maybe give Earth a glancing blow in a few days.

Last call on my 2027 Awesome Auroras calendar photo contest. Submissions close Sunday, September 6 at 11:59 PM Alaska time. Two pages of the calendar come from your photos, and both winners get $100 and a free calendar. 1/5 theauroraguy.com/products/awe...

Wow... how unlucky have we been! Here is the last several days in CME activity according to the HUXt model. This is a top-down view with the Sun at the center and Earth at the right (black dot near gray triangle).

Last day in Prague today, Vienna tomorrow! Then off to Budapest. Unfortunately came down with a bad cold virus and having a hard time adjusting to the new time zone, so physically hurting a bit, but the views are great!

Two pages of my 2027 Awesome Auroras calendar are coming from you, and submissions close Sunday, September 6 at 11:59 PM Alaska time. Enter June, July, or both. Your photo has to be shot in that month, any year, so check what you already have. theauroraguy.com/products/awe...

2027 Awesome Auroras Calendar

2027 Calendar featuring aurora images from around the world, educational information, and moon-phase, meteor showers, eclipses, and other astronomical events.

theauroraguy.com

New paper out in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences! For a lot of people, an aurora app is the first place they ever see a geomagnetic index or an auroral oval map. We looked at how well those apps explain what they're actually showing you. www.frontiersin.org/journals/ast...

Frontiers | Aurora forecasting apps as communicators of space weather: an exploratory perspective

Aurora mobile applications (apps) have become a common way for aurora chasers and other members of the public to access space weather data. For many users, a...

frontiersin.org

Some nice aurora on Maia's recent tour in Fairbanks! Even though it was a quiet space weather night, the aurora did eventually come out around 245 am. This is why it pays to have a guide to wait up for these moments. Lots of people would have called it early...

Another major CME earlier today from the eastern limb, this one associated with a prominence lifting off the Sun. If the blast had occurred about a week later, we could be gearing up for major geomagnetic activity right now… alas, the Sun keeps firing away from us. This CME will not impact Earth.

New publication alert! "Aurora forecasting apps as communicators of space weather: an exploratory perspective" which I co first-authored with Tanya Melnik. Read here: www.frontiersin.org/journals/ast...

Just a heads up that the phto contest for my 2027 Awesome Auroras Calendar is still going on, but it will be closing in a few days so check your hard drives for photos of the aurora taken in either June or July and submit on my website: theauroraguy.com/products/awe...

2027 Awesome Auroras Calendar

2027 Calendar featuring aurora images from around the world, educational information, and moon-phase, meteor showers, eclipses, and other astronomical events.

theauroraguy.com

On my way to Prague, Vienna, and Budapest for a family vacation! Any favorite coffee lunch or dinner spots? Can’t wait to visit Prague since my family technically originated from the area before emigrating to the U.S. in the 1860s.

An M1.7 flare and rising is occuring right now from what looks to be a new region on the Sun's eastern limb... it doesn't have a number, yet and this is the first flare we have seen from it. The actual strength of the flare may be higher as some of the view is blocked by the limb.

If you are new to aurora chasing, start with the basics before diving into every chart and app. My free e-book explains the science, forecasting, timing, and expectations in a way readers have described as detailed and easy to understand for beginners as well. go.theauroraguy.com/ebook

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The sunspot number is about to fall off a cliff! Although we just saw a couple regions rotate over the eastern limb (they look quite decayed and frail), the SSN is projected to dip to around 40 or even lower soon as the Earth-facing disk dries up.

Since it's now September, we have the monthly average sunspot number for August, and it's the same story continued... down and to the right. In other words, we are continuing the expected march towards solar minimum which may be here as soon as 2029-2030.