Alaska Senate Polling Average (DDHQ): 🟦 Mary Peltola: 50% 🟥 Dan Sullivan: 48% The DDHQ Forecast gives Peltola just over a 3 in 5 shot of winning, making Alaska the Democrats' second-most likely Senate flip after North Carolina. #AKSen

DDHQ Forecast Update (9/25): Democrats now have a 72% chance of flipping the House, and are forecasted to win 232 seats. In the DDHQ Forecast, Democrats are favored to gain seats from coast to coast, including two seats in Iowa and three in Pennsylvania.

New Jersey's 7th congressional district is rated as Likely Democratic in the latest DDHQ Forecast. Democrat Rebecca Bennett has an 80% chance of unseating incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr. Democrats only need to net three seats to secure a majority in the House.

DDHQ Governor Forecast (9/23): Our latest Governor Forecast has Dems favored to flip three states, and Republicans favored to flip one. Democrats are favored in a majority of states overall. Georgia:🟥>🟦 Iowa:🟥>🟦 Kansas:🟦>🟥 Ohio: 🟥>🟦

Leans Republican -> Toss Up In our gubernatorial forecast update, Florida's gubernatorial race has shifted into the Toss Up column. Byron Donalds now has a 60% win probability, down from 68% at the start of September.

ELECTION Night: Local elections in Alabama, Iowa, and South Carolina. Polls close at 7:00 eastern in South Carolina, 8:00 eastern in Alabama, and 9:00 eastern in Iowa.

DDHQ Forecast Update (9/22) The most competitive Senate races in our forecast: Holds: Iowa: 50% R Michigan: 68% D Florida: 78% R Flips: Maine: 53% D (🟥>🟦) Ohio: 54% D(🟥>🟦) Texas: 55% D (🟥>🟦) Alaska: 61% D (🟥>🟦) North Carolina: 79% D (🟥>🟦)

Toss Up -> Leans Democratic In today's DDHQ Forecast update, Alaska's Senate race is out of the Toss Up column. Democrat Mary Peltola has a 61% win probability, up from 51% in late July.

Not since 1992 has this much of Congress headed for the exits before an election. 100 members — 84 House, 16 Senate — have left or announced departures since January 2025. That's 18% of the 119th Congress.

House Forecast Update (9/21) In the DDHQ Forecast, Democrats are favored in 231 House seats, while Republicans are favored in 204. Only seven seats are rated as Toss Ups. Democrats have a 70% chance of flipping the House.

DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (9/21) Our latest forecast update gives Democrats a 70% chance of flipping the House, and a 52% chance of flipping the Senate. Democrats have a 49% to flip both chambers, and are favored in 231 House seats and 51 Senate seats.

Likely Republican -> Leans Republican Republican Darline Graham remains the favorite in South Carolina's Senate race, but her odds have slipped from 87% last month to 74% now.

DDHQ POLLING UPDATE: Maine Senate 🟦 Troy Jackson (D): 47% 🟥 Susan Collins (R): 45% Jackson leads, but the DDHQ Forecast gives each candidate about a 1 in 2 shot. Collins has outrun her polling before. #MESen Read DDHQ's latest polling memo:

📈 Can Susan Collins outrun the polls in Maine again?

The Republican incumbent narrowly trails Democrat Troy Jackson in the Pine Tree State’s critical Senate contest

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Polling remains close in Michigan's Senate race. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed currently holds a lead of 2.5% over Republican Mike Rogers. In the DDHQ Forecast, the race is listed as Lean Democratic, with El-Sayed having a 67% probability of winning.

DDHQ POLLING UPDATE: President Donald Trump's approval rating is down to 39.7%, with 58.9% disapproving. This net approval of -19.2% is Trump's lowest since June 2026. Meanwhile, Democrats lead by 7.2% in the generic ballot, their largest lead since May 2026.

Leans Democrat > Likely Democrat The DDHQ Forecast now has Rebecca Bennett as likely to win in #NJ07, with a 76% win probability and a projected margin of five points. Trump carried this seat by one point in the 2024 presidential election.

DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: #NC11 has moved from Leans Republican to Toss Up. Republican Jennifer Balkcom now has a 58% win probability over Democrat Jamie Ager. Donald Trump carried this western North Carolina-based seat by 9.5% in 2024.

68% → 61%. That's how far Republican Byron Donalds' win probability has slipped in DDHQ's Florida governor forecast this month, as Democrat David Jolly gains ground each week. The race is nearing the range where it would become a Toss Up.

DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: Governor Races Democrats are favored in 19 of 36 races this cycle, and 11 races are in the competitive Leans or Toss Up categories. Forecasted Flips: Georgia:🟥>🟦(63% D) Iowa:🟥>🟦(61% D) Kansas:🟦>🟥(73% R)

Decision Desk HQ projects Joseph Arminio wins the DE US House At-Large Republican Primary #DecisionMade: 9:11 PM EDT

Chris Coons has a commanding lead, but among the challengers making up the remaining ~17 of the vote, Eric Hansen, listed on the ballot as "E. No-Trump Hansen", is in last with only 3% of the vote. Hansen was the 2024 Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware.

Decision Desk HQ projects Michael Katz wins the DE US Senate Republican Primary #DecisionMade: 8:29 PM EDT

DDHQ Race Update (est. 28% in): Delaware US House At-Large Republican Primary Joseph Arminio (R): 4,397 (43.1%) John Whalen III (R): 3,411 (33.4%) Earl Cooper (R): 2,398 (23.5%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/293194

DDHQ Race Update (est. 29% in): Delaware US Senate Republican Primary Michael Katz (R): 7,718 (74.1%) John Shulli (R): 2,698 (25.9%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/293192

Decision Desk HQ projects Kathy Jennings wins the DE Attorney General Democratic Primary #DecisionMade: 8:15 PM EDT

Decision Desk HQ projects Chris Coons wins the DE US Senate Democratic Primary #DecisionMade: 8:14 PM EDT

LIVE: Coverage of tonight's Delaware primaries with Geoffrey Skelley and Grace Panetta. www.youtube.com/watch?v=uANY...

Decision Desk 2026: Delaware Primary Livestream

YouTube video by Decision Desk HQ

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ELECTION NIGHT: Primary season concludes in Delaware; minor elections in three other states. Polls close at 8:00 eastern in Delaware.

2026 Delaware US Senate Live Election Results

Live election results, analytics, polling, and prediction market data for the 2026 Delaware US Senate election featuring John Shulli, Michael Katz.

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DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: In the last week, the DDHQ Forecast for Iowa's Senate race has shifted 7 points towards the Democrats. Republican Ashley Hinson is now at a 52% probability to win, and the race is listed as a Toss Up.