Hi, I'm a snake in the grass on the rim of the Ngorongoro Crater.

Suzy Jackson@suzyj.net · yesterday

Introduce yourself as what almost killed you. Hi, I’m Steal a Car and Roll it Half a Dozen Times.

Here are the trends for COVID-19, influenza and RSV in SA. Influenza has been growing steadily in a relatively late wave. It's still roughly 80% below last year's first peak. RSV appears to have peaked, although rates remain elevated. COVID-19 remains roughly flat, at a very low level.

Here are the trends for COVID-19, influenza and RSV in NSW. Influenza has been growing steadily in a relatively late wave. It's still roughly 50% below last year's first peak. RSV appears to have peaked as usual and rates have been falling for a couple of weeks now. COVID-19 remains roughly flat.

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-July. XFG.* "Stratus" remained dominant but fell as low as 33% before rebounding to finish at 52%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-July. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" continued to dominate, finishing at 45%. Several new lineages were defined this week - I’ll go some highlights on this thread. 🧵

Here are the SA trends for COVID-19, Influenza and RSV over the last 18 months. RSV looks to have peaked, but indeed a very late influenza wave is clearly underway, with no peak yet in sight. Last year's freakish influenza double-wave is stark, with a huge area under the curve.

How it started ⬆️ How its going: www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

‘Not enough air traffic controllers’: safety concerns at Sydney airport after Jetstar and Qatar planes involved in near-miss

Planes narrowly avoid collision on tarmac with Jetstar A320 forced to ‘brake firmly’ as Qatar Boeing 777 towed into its path

theguardian.com

It seems a bit premature for the ACDC to be rolling out the "Mission Accomplished" banner on our Diphtheria outbreak? Cases are still growing quite steadily in the NT, and accelerated again in WA during the last week. The picture in SA is also concerning, with more cases detected.

Diphtheria case growth continues to slow in both the NT and WA. The second chart uses a log scale to help compare the growth rates, which are tracking quite closely. 2 more cases have been reported from SA.

In Australia, the growth in measles cases has flattened out for the most part, with low recent growth in NSW, VIC and QLD. NSW has reported the highest rates for 2026, on a per-capita basis. It seems certain that more introductions will continue, from the countries with ongoing outbreaks.

The growth rates of Ebola cases and deaths look quite steady - if anything, they are accelerating.

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-July. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" continued to dominate, but fell in recent samples to 48%. The JN.1.* + DeFLuQE group began to grow, finishing at 3%. This was driven by the new PJ.2.1 lineage, more details below. 🧵

Here’s the July 2026 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors. I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms mike-honey.github.io/sponsors/Git... 🧵

Australian athletes like to win. How it started:

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early July. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" continued to dominate, growing to 51%. XFG.* "Stratus" fell to 18%. 🧵

Here’s the latest picture of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the DRC, up to July 23 (SitRep 70). Confirmed cases jumped recently, mostly from Ituri province. The total by Health Zone is 2,972, with 1 case unassigned. Confirmed deaths were also revised sharply upwards, now at 1,309. 🧵

Here’s the latest picture of the Diphtheria wave in Australia. The growth in diphtheria cases seems to be slowing in the Northern Territory and Western Australia. There has been quite sharp growth reported in South Australia, but there have been no updates since 9 July. 🧵

Thanks for the heads-up Fede! Here's my usual charts for Thailand. The mutation scatter confirms that D420N is very significant. Hopefully they can increase the sequencing volume - a bit hard to be sure from such a small dataset.

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to early July. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" was been dominant during June, but fell to finish at 26%. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" rebounded to 53% in early July. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to the end of June. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" remained dominant, but fell to 45%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to the end of June. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" continued to dominate, growing to 47%. XFG.* "Stratus" fell to 25%. 🧵

Here's what I'm getting at the lineage level for NSW. The picture had been dominated by RK.1 (NB.1.8.1.* Nimbus), but there was an interesting late surge in the new QF.7.2 (XFG.* Stratus), featuring the Spike I197V mutation.

Here's the latest mutation picture from the global clinical samples, zoomed into the bottom-left quadrant. D420N is moving to the centre as it becomes more "mainstream", but still a long way NW of the split line, so still growing. K417T+D253G are mostly SV.2.*. L441R+A457V are mostly RF.5.*.

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to late June. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" remained dominant, finishing at 60%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" was roughly flat at 23%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late June. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was roughly flat at 50%. JN.1.* + FLiRT (led by RF.5.*) grew to take over second spot from XFG.* "Stratus" at 18%. 🧵

Here’s the latest picture of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the DRC, up to June 8 (SitRep 55). Confirmed cases have continued growing at a roughly steady pace. The total by Health Zone is 1,789, with 3 cases unassigned. 🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-June. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" grew slightly to 54%. XFG.* "Stratus" fell further to 16%. BA.3.2.* "Cicada" was roughly flat at 15%. 🧵

Here’s the June 2026 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors. New this month was the project tracking Ebola in the DRC. I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms mike-honey.github.io/sponsors/Git... 🧵

An amazing scenario of convergent evolution Fede! S:D420N continues to star in the "fresh and blazing" sub-quadrant of my mutation scatter (from recent GISAID clinical samples, globally).

The genomic sequencing data from Thailand is still super thin and patchy. But it looks increasingly like the culprits are the new JN.1.* + FLiRT sub-lineages: RF.5.*. RF.5. features the Spike K478T (reversion) mutation. Those lineages are also common among International Travellers into the US.