Paul Warburg

@paulwarburg.bsky.social

Paul Warburg is a geopolitical analyst and YouTuber. https://youtube.com/@pauljwarburg?si=SDnFSyzRBsVw5xl- https://youtube.com/@icarusproject?si=XdEHMMVz6XGOCqd1

The loss of Fedorov doesn’t mean the end of his successes. The reforms he was successful in instituting will continue. The areas where he accelerated success are still ongoing, even right now. His inability to make further reforms doesn’t mean the work he already accomplished goes down the drain.

Fedorov was crucial. But don’t forget, he only had his role for 6 months. For 3.5+ years before, Ukraine was still kicking Russia’s teeth in. Many of the successful strategies we’re seeing now began 2+ years ago, before Fedorov arrived. It’s a major blow to lose him. But it’s not the end of the war.

I keep seeing Russians post on YouTube about how life is still “totally normal.” The irony of having to illegally use a VPN to bypass government restrictions to post to the outside world about how normal life is…is stunning. For content directed INSIDE Russia, social media is full of complaining.

There’s a danger to thinking you know something you’ve never truly studied. We see this trend prevalently exploited in modern politics everywhere. Excerpt on “The Power of the Charlatan” from The 48 Laws of Power

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When Hitler decided to openly rearm Germany, he knew he was gambling with sanctions. Had sanctions been applied, Germany’s position would have been hopeless. World War II never would have happened. Instead, the western world decided “not to provoke Germany.” History repeats itself.

Much is made of Ukraine’s manpower shortage. Few mention that Ukraine has levers to pull that they haven’t pulled yet. They can lower the conscription age from 25 to 18 - the “normal” age in most western countries. That they haven’t done so yet shows they aren’t as desperate as is said.

The current media cycle on Ukraine has repeated itself many times. “Trump wants peace. He says it’s close. Nothing actually happens.” No surprise. I said it a year ago - Trump CAN’T end the war, because the U.S. does NOT have any leverage to force Ukraine to do anything. We are quick to forget.

If Trump is serious about ending the war in Ukraine, he needs to apply the sanctions he threatened against Russia…the same way he ripped away military support from Ukraine the moment a conversation didn’t go “his way.” Otherwise he is once again being fooled by the mere words of Vladimir Putin.

Everyone is nervous about how the war will go, but the reality is that Ukraine is simply repeating thousands of years of military history. We are witnessing history in the making. When we look back, the conclusion will seem obvious the whole time.

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By agreeing to meet with Trump to try to avoid his sanctions, Putin has inadvertently revealed that he IS VERY worried about them. It’s VITAL that Trump presses that advantage rather than caving in to Russia’s demands.

People keep saying there are “nuclear tensions.” That plays right into Russia’s hands. They’ve been threatening nuclear war for YEARS and nothing happens. Trump “positioning” nuclear subs isn’t sending a message to Russia. The subs were already accounted for. It’s about looking strong at home.

These are good developments. I just wish people would have listened sooner. I’ve been called every name possible by people on the right, for trying to encourage the right to do exactly what they’re finally starting to do now. We wasted a lot of lives playing politics. apple.news/AJ08cTq6NQhC...

After Trump’s Ukraine pivot, Senate panel moves to fund more military aid — The Washington Post

Bipartisan groups in Congress are attempting to preserve a weapons procurement program for Ukraine that the Trump administration proposed eliminating.

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Russia’s naval base WAS damaged by the tsunami. A pier snapped in half. That’s just the apparent damage we can see from satellite, but it confirms large waves did hit the base and cause damage…likely much more extensive than we can know. Any ships at dock would have been slammed into piers.

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I always invite Russian trolls to poke actual holes in my discussions. They never do. The best they can say is “This is delusional propaganda” or “Take your meds” or “Go back to the asylum”…without ever clarifying why my analysis is actually wrong. That’s how you know you’re over the target.

Russian TV began threatening Alaska again. Around the same time, an 8.8 earthquake (6th largest recorded in history) struck RIGHT outside Russia’s ONLY naval base in that area. A tsunami has hit the naval base, and now a volcano is erupting to its north. Irony sucks if you’re Russian.