Dan Neidle

@danneidle.bsky.social

Founder of Tax Policy Associates Ltd. Tax realist. @danneidle on Twitter

Unregulated landlord tax firm Property118 just surprisingly won against HMRC in a tax tribunal. Unsurprisingly, they're using it to resume marketing their very dubious scheme. Our analysis of what this means, and HMRC's chances on any appeal: taxpolicy.org.uk/2026/08/05/p...

Property118 v HMRC: the tribunal win that changes nothing

Property 118 won its DOTAS appeal, but the tribunal only decided its schemes needn’t be disclosed - not that they work. Clients remain under HMRC enquiry.

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Iain Clifford Stamp ripped off thousands of people, charging £m for fake schemes to wipe out their debts. He was found in contempt of court, sentenced to 12 months, and told followers he'd fled to North Cyprus. His latest US court filing is dated 9 July. From Portsmouth, UK.

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For the last 25 years, the courts have struck down just about every tax avoidance scheme they've seen. Except business rates, where the law remained stuck in the 1970s.

It's being reported that Andy Burnham might replace council tax and stamp duty with a 0.48% annual property tax. We'll have a complete report on this tomorrow, including an interactive map showing the impact across the country.

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Scotland raised its top income tax rate to 48% to make the rich pay more. New HMRC data suggests the result may have been the opposite: Scotland collected about £22m less. We can't be sure, but Scotland may have fallen over the Laffer curve. 🧵:

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Turns out working out who's in charge of the tax system is almost as complicated as the tax system. Dan Tomlinson retains his title as Exchequer Secretary but is no longer responsible for tax. James Murray remains Financial Secretary to the Treasury and takes over tax.

Seen that opinion poll in which millionaires say they're in favour of a wealth tax on millionaires? It's an absolute masterclass in how to get the polling result that you want. And the detail shows the opposite of what we're told it shows. Thread:

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Exciting news! 1. Tax Policy Associates HQ will now be serving beer. 2. Our vape shop will sadly be shutting down. In its place will be an American candy store. It will incidentally sell vapes.

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I have great news. When I wrote about Zack Polanski I was merely a white supremacist. But now I’ve suggested Nigel Farage has tax to pay, I’ve become a full blown NAZI. Tbh can’t wait to see where I’ll go next.

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In May we said Nigel Farage probably didn't owe tax on his £5m gift. The Guardian now reports the gift followed talks where Farage said he'd need £5m to return to frontline politics. *If* that's right, we think there's a high risk of a £3m tax bill - payable by Reform.

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Someone maliciously added Tax Policy Associates to the Block List Project malware list. Likely someone trying to bury one of our investigations. It worked.: some ISPs are now blocking our website. I filed a detailed false-positive request four days ago. No response.

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Andy Burnham is right not to rule out any taxes. Ruling stuff out is what got Labour into such a mess they ended up raising employer NICs (the Worst tax increase). Best to do this properly, and just not talk/leak about tax until the Budget.

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Stamp duty and council tax are terrible taxes. Land value tax could replace both - and Andy Burnham has backed it for 16 years. Who wins? Who loses? What happens to house prices? LVT could drive growth. But it isn’t easy. Our model shows its promise - and its problems.

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Andy Burnham's backed a land value tax for 16 years. This Sunday we'll be publishing an analysis of how an LVT would work in practice. Plus a model that lets you design an LVT and answer the key questions: Who'd win? Who'd lose? And the big question: can it be done at all?

a map of the UK showing that most of the additional burden of a land value tax falls on London and the South East

I don't usually write personal stuff, but a few words about my experience of being interviewed by Gary Stevenson. It started with a nice chat, comparing taste in hoodies... then the tone changed. He demanded to know why I'd deleted a tweet criticising him.

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Lots of people asking me about the Prosperity 2030 proposal to reform tax and raise £100bn/year. I love seeing ambitious tax reform proposals, but I struggle to understand this one. The document is very hard to follow (possibly because of the use of AI?)

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Last year's Budget introduced a “mansion tax” - an annual charge on homes worth £2m or more. The Mail on Sunday reported that Andy Burnham may lower the threshold to £1.5m. We've looked at how that could work, what it would raise, and which parts of the UK would pay the most.

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A British billionaire can move to Dubai and stop paying UK tax. An American billionaire can’t: the US taxes its citizens wherever they live. So should we copy America? No. There’s a reason only the US does this. A passport tax would be unfair, unworkable, & a huge mess. 🧵

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Andy Burnham is probably going to raise tax by at least £4.7bn, and maybe much more. Here's my list of 37 ways he might do it: every potential tax rise, how much it would raise, and what the downside would be. There's always a downside. Thread:

A chart showing every UK tax. By far the biggest ones are:
- Income tax
- National insurance
- VAT
- Corporation tax

What if Andy Burnham could raise £15bn – without a tax rise? There's one catch. He'd need to solve the UK’s biggest and least-discussed tax problem. Almost half of all small business corporation tax isn't being paid - and nobody knows why. Thread:

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