George Magnus
@george17.bsky.social
China watcher, ex Chief Economist UBS, now at China Centre, Oxford and at SOAS, London. Rock&Indie music lover. Also golden retriever owner and fan.
My comments on Trump’s 50% EU and 25% Apple tariff moment youtu.be/UnHVr66OMoo
What consequences a new EU-Trump tariff war could have | DW News
YouTube video by DW News
youtu.be
The problem here is you’re not comparing like with like. There must be other reasons why such a high % of people are claiming out of work benefits when we have more of less full employment. It’s an anomaly which requires explanation.
Librarian Capital@librariancapital.bsky.social · last yr.Fraser Nelson: "¼ of Birmingham, UK's 2nd city, now on out-of-work benefits" This is a conclusion he drew from his own analysis An IFS analysis shows much lower nationwide numbers "In England and Wales ... 10.0% – now claim either incapacity or disability benefit" cc: @george17.bsky.social
Thanks to Deutsche Welle for an extended interview on the US China trade war -> embargo -> de-escalation for now and strategically , what it all means youtube.com/watch?v=-4PO...
Trade War: game over or next round? | DW News
YouTube video by DW News
youtube.com
Trump says China trade tslks in Switz ‘total reset’. No stranger to hyperbole, him, but total reset is precisely what’s going on in world trade and much related to it, as I explain here: youtube.com/watch?v=7gEk...
The Global Trade Reset Was Inevitable | George Magnus
YouTube video by The Monetary Matters Network
youtube.com
Through the looking glass folks, abs ridiculous - Woman wins £30,000 compensation for being compared to Darth Vader
While the U.S. and China jostle, too many politicians and commentators have naively concluded the answer to trade more with the biggest mercantilist that only wants to export more to them. Dumb. Talk of cosying up to China is a dangerous fantasy www.thetimes.com/article/018b...
Talk of cosying up to China is a dangerous fantasy
China’s export orders hit their lowest level since 2022. A closer trade relationship is a perilous illusion
thetimes.com
I think we are learning something rather different. That large structural surplus economies, by imposing -ve welfare consequences on own population, force deficits and welfare losses on other countries. Which is why so many are raising ‘trade defence measures’ against the same surplus country.
Tomas Hirst@tomashirstecon.bsky.social · last yr.We are learning, once again, that attempting to force economic rebalancing on other countries requires both the deficit country’s willingness to impose negative welfare consequences on its own population *and* the surplus country’s willingness to mitigate the domestic welfare consequences.
Bbg’s Natthew Brooker on the UK Treasury and finance sectir interesrs naivete and weak acumen in setting the Lab Govt’s china policy www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
UK's China Policy Is Based on Magical Thinking
Labour’s economic engagement policy is mired in misconceptions about the nature of the Communist system.
bloomberg.com
When you write an article like this, it helps to know something about the political economy of the country you’re writing about, and how it works and what doesn’t. AndrewMarr comes up short here 1/2 www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
Why China is winning
In the struggle with the US for dominance, which superpower’s patriotic determination is stronger?
newstatesman.com
Good piece. I think Hatzius is right. US$ depreciation is not the same as loss of reserve currency status. It’s a bear market, not a bare market.
Tony Tassell@tonytassell.bsky.social · last yr.The dollar has further to fall - strong oped here from Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius www.ft.com/content/976e...
Can’t see Trump firing him, myself. Even if he did, Powell is just one vote on the FOMC, and while you’d have been laughed out for saying this when he was appointed, he’s a pretty imp dude in scheme of things now
Tony Tassell@tonytassell.bsky.social · last yr.👇👇Jay Powell is defiant in the face of Trump’s threats - oped by Gillian Tett who writes the Fed chair is determined to see out his term, and lawyers at the central bank think he has good grounds to do so www.ft.com/content/e714...
Interview w/ ‘The Market’s Mark Ditti on the US China trade war, or more like, embargo. many topics but in a nutshell, cajoling one another into talks still seems likely, but nothing can thrn clock back or reset this fractured relationship. themarket.ch/interview/ge...
George Magnus: Nobody Can Win This Trade War
George Magnus, the former chief economist of UBS Investment Bank and author of the book «Red Flags», talks about the trade war between the US and China, the Trump administration’s approach and the que...
themarket.ch
Technically a serious and content heavy research paper. But there’s also a far simpler political explanation which is rooted in CCP historical narratives, the embrace of unprecedented industrial scale industrial policy after 2005, and Leninist thinking and ambition carried to new levels by Xi.
Henry Farrell@himself.bsky.social · last yr.1. Now that China is cutting economic ties, new research on why China opted for technological self-reliance. The good stuff discussed below is down to my co-authors rather than me - but it _is_ good stuff. We have lots of NLP data that helps us map out China's debates about technological dependence.
About time the governors there et al developed a spine. Let’s hope they stand firm against all intimidation
Prof Dynarski@dynarski.bsky.social · last yr.Harvard stands up Letter to the Harvard community from President Garber
Well….. I’m struggling to think of anything Ed Miliband has done or plotted that didn’t end up toxic or snafu’d….
No question that politicians and markets (now just fear) were not braced for China's escalatory response. But this doesn't mean, despite awful optics now, that there wont be a deal at some point. Interesting q is who, by then, will hold the stronger cards 1/4 www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
China intends to crush the trade war
Beijing has retaliated against Donald Trump's tariffs — and the response was far stronger than expected.
newstatesman.com
Spokecwith @Deutsche Welle about Trump’s tariffs and China’s escalatory riposte youtu.be/bC3jZWm4pEI?...
Trump tariffs: China hits back with 34% tariff on US goods | DW News
YouTube video by DW News
youtu.be
Time to move on from ‘asinine and inept’ which it is, and try to get to grips with implications. Check out the Asian tariff changes eg vs Latam etc. Trump is setting out to break up the China/Asia supply chains laboriously created in the last 20 odd years 1/4
In which I set out the reasons that 65% tariffs would hurt China, even though the exports affected are not that big as % GDP, and what China might do about it, including try for a deal with Trump. How Trump’s tariffs will hurt China www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-...
How Trump’s tariffs will hurt China
China has been hit hard by President Trump’s tariff list, which he unveiled yesterday in the White House rose garden. As part of his ‘Liberation Day’, Trump imposed new 34 per cent tariffs on China. T...
spectator.co.uk
This, as usual, is a well written but it’s not without weaknesses. Here are 3. 1/4
David Henig@davidheniguk.bsky.social · last yr.And Martin Wolf has been in China, where they recognise Trump's Cultural Revolution as an opportunity for others as the US reputation is heavily damaged. www.ft.com/content/80ab...
🇨🇳 ‘The government is certainly not planning to change its mercantilist economic model away from the emphasis on industrial policies and exports, despite new measures to appear more consumer-focused,’ writes @george17.bsky.social, in a new #Investigator #ObservingChina
China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis
How achievable are Beijing’s economic goals for 2025?
observingchina.org.uk
In this piece, I take an in-depth look at the CCP's economic deliberations at the NPC earlier this month. Plenty of rhetoric about the need to boost consumption. A few takeaways here 1/3 China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis open.substack.com/pub/chinaobs...
China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis
How achievable are Beijing’s economic goals for 2025?
open.substack.com
Globalisation as we knew it may be over says HSBC, which doesn’t blink twice in cozying up to Beijing which is a prime instigator of the breakdown in globalisation as we knew it
Financial Times@financialtimes.com · last yr.‘Globalisation as we knew it’ may be over, says HSBC chair Mark Tucker https://www.ft.com/content/ce7d678a-2499-4867-b152-2c3470c44c84
So true. Lots of students have been not taken care of well by the university. Appalling governance standards
Filipe Campante@filipecampante.bsky.social · last yr.Reading this appalling story, I don't see how anyone can in good conscience send their kids to Columbia -- not even as a political statement, but from a basic "will they take care of my kid?" standpoint...
Interesting Eichengreen essay and even for those of us who think the $ is a reserve asset like no other predecessor, the arguments that it’s mainly the USA that can puncture its own currency’s global role rings true. With a caveat 1/2
Financial Times@financialtimes.com · last yr.Can the dollar remain king of currencies? https://www.ft.com/content/8a71dceb-806f-4681-80f9-416aa4c366ca
Prof Steve Tsang and I podcast on China pst the National People's Congress. Will, could even, China boost consumption finally, as promised? How will China mange Trump's tariffs? Steve also considers Xi, subject of recent book, and Chinese politics. soas-china-institute.buzzsprout.com/1669327/epis...
Planning China's Future — Boosting Consumption, Enterprise and Defence - China In Context
At this month’s legislative session China announced policies to maintain GDP growth at 5%, boost consumption and the private sector and promote AI and high tech industry, from quantum computing to the...
soas-china-institute.buzzsprout.com
Author writes here that Beijing is angsty about the 'reverse Kissinger' , ie the US cozying up to Russia to put blue water btw China and Russia. While this is a scenario, it seems unlikely 1/4 China’s partnership with Russia needs to have limits www.ft.com/content/880b...
China’s partnership with Russia needs to have limits
As Moscow’s top trading partner, Beijing wields substantial economic leverage over the Kremlin
ft.com
I actually titled this 'Breaking up is hard to do'. Not impossible, obv, but thinking systemically rather than about individuals, and about the world's major US-China faultline , id say there are Atlantic ties and binds that will ebdure somehow. 1/2 engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...
The transatlantic alliance is fractured, not broken
Despite the severe strains that are being placed on the transatlantic alliance by the Trump Administration, Europe and the United States are bound by economic and security ties that are highly integra...
engelsbergideas.com
