Reactions like this show EU's slide towards what Le Pen's RN approvingly calls a "double border" regime: external Schengen borders AND more common (in some cases de-facto permanent, infrastructural) controls on frontiers within the zone. A recipe for fragmentation. www.reuters.com/world/italy-...

Italy reimposes border controls on Spain after Ceuta migrant surge

Italy's government said the measure would not ​affect Spanish or other EU citizens traveling to Italy and would instead involve targeted checks ​on non-EU nationals arriving from Spain by air or sea.

reuters.com

Poland’s political divide is no longer a simple contest between two dominant parties. As the right fragments, debates over Europe, security and Ukraine are becoming increasingly central to the country’s political future Read full text: https://bit.ly/4fIzjM1

How splits on the right may threaten Poland’s pro-European camp – European Council on Foreign Relations

More than 40 MPs have walked out of Law and Justice, Poland’s largest opposition party, and will court centre-right voters who put Donald Tusk in power in 2023.

bit.ly

The European response to the #Ceuta crisis will go down in history as an own goal that emboldened Europe’s adversaries. Instead of showing solidarity, Italy & co sought to punish it. Now, with the vast majority of arrivals already returned, the failure wasn’t border control but European solidarity.

The Ceuta border chaos isn't just a random meltdown. It involves policy decisions made in Morocco - courted by Spain, the EU generally, AND the Trump administration - following a visit by Spanish PM Sánchez to its rival Algeria. This is about diplomacy more than border security.

In #Ankara #NATO agreed on digital modernisation and interoperability. That is good. But the devil is in the detail: on whom's standards do you standardise? Can we avoid digital dependency on 🇺🇸? My comment for @ecfr.eu 👇 ecfr.eu/article/nato...

NATO’s digital arsenal: How Europe can avoid a new dependence on America – European Council on Foreign Relations

AI-powered command systems are becoming the backbone of modern warfare. NATO needs shared standards, but if those rest on American software, interoperability wi

ecfr.eu

Yemen may shape the next phase of the Iran war. As Houthi attacks increase, Saudi Arabia faces a stark choice between restraint and escalation—with implications far beyond the Gulf Read full article: https://bit.ly/4pJGxUT

The Saudi dilemma: How Yemen could shape the next phase of the Iran war – European Council on Foreign Relations

As the Houthis attack Saudi ships and infrastructure, Riyadh faces an increasingly difficult choice: absorb the blows to stay out of the Iran war or retaliate a

bit.ly

++BREAKING++ The UK and Spanish governments have issued a joint statement overnight: "[We] agreed that this summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life." www.gov.uk/government/n...

"Multipolarity... creates a chance to build an order less dependent on one power’s virtue, less compromised by selective enforcement, and less vulnerable to the nostalgia that mistakes yesterday’s hypocrisies for lost law." www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

What should replace the American-led world order? | Aslı Bâli and Samuel Moyn

The task now is to stop mourning the old order and build the foundations of the new multipolar world

theguardian.com

Just how volatile are European politics today? In the past 10 days we have seen: - UK government overhauled 2 years after a landslide - PiS split and reordering of Polish right - Rising Italian far-right scramble Meloni's strategy - Merz's CDU enter a spiral of self-destruction

Heartbreaking. The woman killed in the attack at Berlin’s Pride march was a 65-year-old who had traveled from Warsaw to attend the LGBTQ+ event with her daughter. May the earth rest lightly upon her 💔

Nach Anschlag beim CSD Berlin: Todesopfer ist Mutter aus Polen – Justiz verteidigt Aufhebung von Haftbefehl gegen Ballout

Mutmaßlicher Attentäter Abdul Ballout erschossen + Zweiter Tatverdächtiger wieder frei + CDU-Politiker fordern härteren Kurs gegen Gefährder + Alle Entwicklungen im Newsblog.

tagesspiegel.de

🚨 New paper! For @carnegieendowment.org, I argue that uncertainties about 🇩🇪's geopolitical position (west-v-east) and size (middle-v-great power) fundamentally mark its foreign-policy debates, and thus explain why AfD is so aloof among other far-right parties. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

The Alternative für Deutschland and Germany’s Unsettled Place in the World

Unresolved tensions within the AfD may ultimately constrain the its potential as a leader among European and global populist forces.

carnegieendowment.org

🚨 New paper! For @carnegieendowment.org, I argue that uncertainties about 🇩🇪's geopolitical position (west-v-east) and size (middle-v-great power) fundamentally mark its foreign-policy debates, and thus explain why AfD is so aloof among other far-right parties. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

The Alternative für Deutschland and Germany’s Unsettled Place in the World

Unresolved tensions within the AfD may ultimately constrain the its potential as a leader among European and global populist forces.

carnegieendowment.org

Innovation and cohesion are key for EU climate policy to succeed, not deregulation and lowering of ambitions, I argue in this piece for Handelsblatt. www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/glob... #ETS @ecfr.eu

Global Challenges: Klimapolitik ist wichtig für Europas Wettbewerbsfähigkeit

China macht rasante Fortschritte bei sauberen Technologien. Europa darf sich nicht abhängen lassen und sollte deshalb aktiv die Nachfrage fördern, meint Klima-Experte Mats Engstrom.

handelsblatt.com

Leaving Santander after Spanish MFA's "España en el mundo" conference. Fine company (@jmalbares.bsky.social, @ilketoygur.bsky.social, @brunomacaes.bsky.social, @caminomortera.bsky.social, @ecfrmadrid.bsky.social, @himself.bsky.social + others) and discussions that really challenge old orthodoxies 🇪🇸🇪🇺

Zelensky’s outgoing defence minister did not hold back in his criticism of military commanders—and his allegations deserve proper scrutiny, writes @jkobzova.bsky.social. @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/the-...

The fallout of the fallout: Zelensky’s reshuffle and protests in Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations

Zelensky’s outgoing defence minister did not hold back in his criticism of military commanders—and his allegations deserve proper scrutiny

ecfr.eu

Five foreign policy principles for UK's new Burnham government:

'A state that outsources its artificial-intelligence capability to foreign companies with organic ties to a foreign government is not sovereign, however firmly its leadership asserts autonomy in multilateral forums; it is a digital protectorate' writes Francisco Carneiro in RUSI Newsbrief.

The Algorithmic Deterrent

Palantir's manifesto and the sovereignty question for states without algorithmic independence.

rusi.org

🗳️ Electoral Reform Alert 🗳️ Yesterday, the Italian Lower House approved a new electoral reform, now headed to the Senate. This would be the fifth major reform of the electoral system in Italy since 1993, and it could bring an even more radical right-wing party into the next government coalition. (1)

🧵US-Iran MoU is unravelling over Hormuz. In @foreignpolicy.com @ecfr.eu's Ellie Geranmayeh argues Tehran+Trump risk being bogged down in endless conflict despite having same strategic goal to reopen Strait. Here's how mediators could bridge the Hormuz gap foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/15/h...

How the United States and Iran Can Solve Hormuz

Fees for passage through the strait are likely inevitable.

foreignpolicy.com

US state department offers $3mn grants to Maga-aligned groups in Europe ft.trib.al/sjYHKHE

US state department offers $3mn grants to Maga-aligned groups in Europe

Agency seeks to repurpose foreign aid funds to help organisations that support Trump administration policies

ft.trib.al

Nymphenburg twilight

That European defence fragmentation costs as much as €57bn annually (~France’s defence budget) illustrates the vacuity of % spending targets blind to capabilities, integration, value for money and industrial sovereignty www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Macron calls go-it-alone defence strategies in Europe an 'absurdity'

French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday warned European countries against go-it-alone national defence policies, as governments ramp up military spending in response to Russia's threat and pressure...

reuters.com

“München leuchtete. Über den festlichen Plätzen und weißen Säulentempeln, den antikisierenden Monumenten und Barockkirchen, den springenden Brunnen, Palästen und Gartenanlagen der Residenz spannte sich strahlend ein Himmel von blauer Seide”

It's early days, and France's election is still wide open, but still: European policymakers should start thinking and planning now for the eventuality of a President Le Pen. Some initial thoughts from @celiabelin.bsky.social and me: ecfr.eu/article/how-...

How to think about a Le Pen presidency of France – European Council on Foreign Relations

Le Pen is racing into the French presidential election, even with a fraud conviction hanging over her campaign. Europeans should begin preparing for the rupture

ecfr.eu

Think of it: A NATO summit at which the American president called for taking control of an ally's territory is deemed a success.

It's early days, and France's election is still wide open, but still: European policymakers should start thinking and planning now for the eventuality of a President Le Pen. Some initial thoughts from @celiabelin.bsky.social and me: ecfr.eu/article/how-...

How to think about a Le Pen presidency of France – European Council on Foreign Relations

Le Pen is racing into the French presidential election, even with a fraud conviction hanging over her campaign. Europeans should begin preparing for the rupture

ecfr.eu

Marine Le Pen is running for the French presidency after all. What does this mean for the campaign and France's future? 🇫🇷 @celiabelin.bsky.social and I discuss with @markhleonard.bsky.social on @ecfr.eu's World in 30 Minutes podcast. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

Marine Le Pen’s comeback – European Council on Foreign Relations

Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jeremy Cliffe to discuss Marine Le Pen’s return to the French presidential race

ecfr.eu

New French polling: Marine Le Pen would very narrowly beat the best-polling mainstream candidate Édouard Philippe. But it it very early days. The race is wide open.

There are two ways the rest of the EU can respond to this fundamentally pragmatic and necessary idea from the Spanish government: 1) embrace it now in an orderly and negotiated way, 2) reject it now then grab for it in a wild panic during the next major European crisis.

POLITICO Europe@politico.eu · 4w ago

EXCLUSIVE: Spain is pushing the European Commission to break a long-standing taboo and borrow an additional €850 billion per year on behalf of EU countries.