Japan’s latest annual Defence of Japan document has just been released. This is always a useful document on how Japan is thinking about the global security environment, regional security dynamics, insights from modern war, and Japan’s national response. www.mod.go.jp/en/publ/w_pa...

“Changes in leadership often boil down to war weariness as, over time, the strategic picture fails to change. President Zelensky should not, as we must not, lose sight of the eventual aim, which is victory.“ @engelsbergideas.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/essays/what-...

What Zelensky must learn from war leaders past

The history of modern warfare suggests that leaders who are ruthless towards failing ministers and generals are best able to keep their armed forces innovative on the battlefield.

engelsbergideas.com

My latest explores why Ukraine chose to formalise its long-range strike architecture, assesses how the new command can add to Ukraine’s strategic and political endeavours, and what Western militaries should learn from Ukraine’s example. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-l...

Ukraine's Long-Range Strike Command: Institutionalising Deep Strike

After years of technical and tactical innovation, as well collaboration between Ukrainian organisations and foreign agencies, Ukraine takes the next step in its long-range strike endeavours.

mickryan.substack.com

Is Russia helping Iran? Duh Is China helping Russia? Duh Is it possible for too many western analysts to live in the delusion that China Russia and Iran can be separated/played against each other? Duh www.reuters.com/world/middle...

EXCLUSIVE: Iran strikes on CIA facilities prompt questions about possible Russian role

Iranian drone attacks on CIA facilities in the Gulf have prompted U.S. intelligence analysts to investigate whether Russia assisted by providing targeting information or ​advanced drone technology, sa...

reuters.com

“Kyiv may be in the best position in the war since 2022, but the Kremlin believes it will crush the will of Ukraine & its friends this winter. Russia may be struggling, but Putin has not exhausted his options. He still wants to fight for as long as possible.” www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-...

Why a Weaker Russia Keeps Fighting

Putin sees little need to negotiate.

foreignaffairs.com

My new article examines why the Ukrainian government chose to formalise its long-range strike architecture, assesses how the new command can add to Ukraine’s strategic and political endeavours, and what Western militaries should learn from Ukraine’s example. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-l...

Ukraine's Long-Range Strike Command: Institutionalising Deep Strike

After years of technical and tactical innovation, as well collaboration between Ukrainian organisations and foreign agencies, Ukraine takes the next step in its long-range strike endeavours.

mickryan.substack.com

Years ago, I read Ken Alibek’s book on Russia’s secret Cold War bio-warfare program. It is a scary book. This new book from @AnnieJacobsen, which I have just begun, is genuinely spine-tingling and is an important prompt to review whole-of-society bio-war defences.

A terrific article on potential Russian mobilisation later this year from @ldfreedman.bsky.social samf.substack.com/p/will-putin...

Will Putin be forced to announce another mobilisation?

Like many people trying to follow the Russo-Ukraine War I spend a lot of time staring at maps of the front line.

samf.substack.com

A Pacific War battle on the eastern tip of New Guinea can teach today's military leaders much about intelligence, air-land integration, and the discipline of Commanders holding their nerve under a pressure. mickryan.substack.com/p/first-bloo...

First Blood: How the Battle of Milne Bay Broke the Spell of Japanese Invincibility

What a battle on the eastern tip of New Guinea can teach today's military leaders about intelligence, air-land integration, and the discipline of Commanders holding their nerve under a pressure.

mickryan.substack.com

Positive - but the real shame is that these legislators could have acted much sooner to help Ukraine. www.politico.com/news/2026/07...

Momentum shifts for Zelenskyy in Washington

Senators who attended a closed door meeting with the Ukrainian leader said his pitch is starting to have an impact.

politico.com

In my latest article, I explore what the 1942 Battle of Milne Bay on the eastern tip of New Guinea can teach today's military leaders about intelligence, air-land integration, and the discipline of Commanders holding their nerve under a pressure. mickryan.substack.com/p/first-bloo...

First Blood: How the Battle of Milne Bay Broke the Spell of Japanese Invincibility

What a battle on the eastern tip of New Guinea can teach today's military leaders about intelligence, air-land integration, and the discipline of Commanders holding their nerve under a pressure.

mickryan.substack.com

China has run online influence campaigns against Taiwan since 2018. A new internal journal article shows those ideas maturing into an actual operational plan for capturing a city. warontherocks.com/total-war-on...

Total War on Taipei: China Explores Elevating Cognitive Effects into Its Vision of Warfare

In March 2025, China’s military researchers published a concept describing how to rapidly capture and subdue the city of Taipei. Distributed in restricted

warontherocks.com

Afternoon walk.

"We are doomed to Victory. It cannot be otherwise, and there can be no talk of any compromises or concessions." The words of the new Ukrainian commander-in-chief, General Drapatyi, begin my weekly update. mickryan.substack.com/p/deepening-...

Deepening Dilemmas: Ukraine's New Commands, Drapatyi's Priorities, Long Range Strike & Russia's War Math. The Big Five, 26 July.

This week: The new Ukrainian military leadership, Drapatyi's priorities, Ukraine's new military commands, Russia's deepening dilemma in its war against Ukraine, and my Big 5 reading recommendations.

mickryan.substack.com

My latest conversation with @Nataly_Lutsenko for War & Politics 24. This week, we discussed the new command arrangements for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukrainian strikes on Russian Wildberries warehouses and the impact of Ukraine’s mid range strikes. youtu.be/Cp1jnbGCO6I?...

⚡️Putin’s regime under fire! Wave of strikes rocks Moscow. Kremlin never expected this humiliation

YouTube video by War & Politics 24

youtu.be

“The Iran war is almost certainly the easiest drone war that America will ever fight. Countering this cheap and widely accessible technology will only get harder. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

The War Is Lost. Now Fix What It Broke.

America has to rethink how it moves resources, fights wars, and deters adversaries.

theatlantic.com

The adaptation battle continues. militarnyi.com/en/news/russ...

Russia Develops “Web” Protective Structure to Shield Oil Refineries From Drones

Russia has developed modular metal structures called “Web” to protect infrastructure facilities from drone attacks.RT-Project Technologies developed the product in partnership with Standard-Elektrik. ...

militarnyi.com

“There are only 3 positions in the country that, alongside the troops on the battlefield, actually shape the course of the war: the President, the Minister of Defense, and the Commander-in-Chief…That is why I will not accept any position other than Minister of Defense.” www.kyivpost.com/post/80925

Thanks No Thanks – Fedorov Turns Down Zelensky’s Offer to Become ‘Deputy PM for Military Innovations’

The former defense minister expressed his gratitude but said he is not accepting any offers other than positions that can allow him to make an actual impact.

kyivpost.com

“Corrupt leaders are not only rulers of weak institutions...They are mirrors. And what they reveal is often more disturbing than their corruption itself.” www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-pe...

Why People Worship Corrupt Leaders

The ancient world understood something we prefer to avoid: corrupt power does not survive only by deceiving people. It survives by giving them strength, revenge, belonging, and permission.

linkedin.com

On 21 July, after six days of protests, he dismissed General Syrskyi as Commander-in-Chief and has appointed General Drapatyi in his place. Along with the acting Defence Minister, Drapatyi has several challenges ahead which I explore in this article. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Ukraine’s new command team faces its first three tests

The general and the minister must work – and be seen – as a team.

lowyinstitute.org

“The same people who as recently as last autumn surrendered the initiative on the battlefield to Russia had convinced the president that winning the war required dismissing the minister under whom Ukraine regained that initiative.” A fascinating report. www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles...

The resignation of the year and appointment of a new Cabinet: why Zelenskyy is removing Fedorov from the Defence Ministry

On the evening of 15 July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived late for a meeting with the Servant of the People faction.

pravda.com.ua

Last week I had the opportunity to walk across the stage and receive my doctorate from The University of Queensland. It was a wonderful conclusion to a research and writing project that I greatly enjoyed. Thank you to my two amazing supervisors, Kim and Helen, and to my family for their support.

An interesting format - having senior military commanders face senior industry leaders across the table. Maybe something other western military institutions might try to speed up innovation? www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...

Zelenskyy holds first special Staff meeting with weapons manufacturers and corps commanders

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a special meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on 20 July that brought weapons manufacturers and army corps commanders together for the f...

pravda.com.ua

In my latest weekly update: Zelenskyy sacks his defence minister, protests in Ukraine for a 3rd night, Russia attacks Odesa amusement park, Ukraine's strike campaigns put Russia in a bind over Crimea and its shadow fleet, and a robotic amphibious landing. mickryan.substack.com/p/sacking-th...

Sacking the Reformer: Ukraine’s Civil-Military Crisis, Russia’s Widening Dilemma, and the Middle East on Edge. The Big Five, 19 July 2026

This week: A new Ukrainian civil-military crisis, protestors of the streets, Russia's big strategic defence dilemmas, the impact of the new phase of the Iran War, and Chinese coercion in the Pacific.

mickryan.substack.com

The Corsair strike, the LUCAS drone & Ukrainian air defence systems on American bases indicate that the US military can 'fast follow'. The bigger questions: why it took 3 years & how these are linked into a larger US strategy for the war. My latest. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-corsai...

The Corsair Strikes: Fast Followers at War

Corsair, LUCAS and the Ukraine Lessons America is Applying Against Iran

mickryan.substack.com

Under the new deal, the U.S. lifts its blockade, withdraws forces, and releases frozen assets before Iran has to concede on a single hard issue. warontherocks.com/07/2026/outg...

Outgunned, But Not Outplayed: Iran's Theory of Victory

Nineteen weeks ago, Iran faced the combined might of the most powerful country in the world and the most advanced military in the Middle East. Today, it

warontherocks.com

“Very irritating, dying. But I’m not afraid of it.” - Sam Neill Vale Sam Neill, a great Irish-born Kiwi Aussie.

Ukraine has "turned off" Crimea, and has Russia stuck between defending Crimea or defending itself. China just lobbed an ICBM into the South Pacific. My weekly update is now available. mickryan.substack.com/p/crimeas-sw...

Crimea's Switch Off, Ankara’s Outcomes, Russia’s Black Sea Shipping Apocalypse and Beijing's Pacific Signal. The Big Five, 12 July

Trump: "Would you go to Moscow (to meet Putin)?"

mickryan.substack.com

“We have completely eliminated the very idea of Russia having a strategic rear,” stated Zelenskyy in Ankara this week. This prompts a deeper question. Are we observing the decline, or collapse, of one of the oldest concepts in strategic thought: strategic depth? mickryan.substack.com/p/the-declin...

The Decline of Strategic Depth? Beyond Geography in Modern War

Examining the concept of strategic depth in the contemporary security environment, and what Western nations might do to enhance their individual and collective strategic depth.

mickryan.substack.com

“The world that these theorists foresaw half a century ago is now here. The literate era will prove to be a brief interlude between the oral and digital ages.” A fascinating read. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...

The End of Reading Is Here

Optimists once believed that universal literacy was inevitable. Now it seems that the age of reading might be a short anomaly in human history.

theatlantic.com