Asia’s imports of crude oil in August are estimated at a touch over 23 million bpd, roughly the same as July, and down almost 4 million bpd from prior to the Iran war. This challenges claims by the US that Middle East oil exports are almost at pre-conflict levels. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Asia's crude oil imports stay soft in August, challenging US Hormuz claims

Asia's imports of crude oil in August are still well short of levels prior to the start of the Iran conflict, raising further questions as to just how much crude is actually leaving the Middle East.

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The new U.S. sanctions against Iran are more of a threat than an imminent reality, but they do signal the ladder of escalation is once again being climbed. The risk is the more success in inflicting economic pain on Iran, the more they incentivise Tehran to hit back. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Bessent's D-Day sanctions are more Anzio, but Iran response is key

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent invoked the famous D-Day landing of Allied troops in France in 1944 when announcing new sanctions against Iran.

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The debate between US Energy Sec Wright and most of the rest of the oil market over how much crude is exiting the Strait of Hormuz is an interesting distraction. The pressing issue is the real contraction in Asia’s imports of refined fuels such as diesel and gasoline. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

China is lifting imports of seaborne Russian crude in August, partly because Iranian oil availability is being hampered by the US blockade. Buying more Russian oil means less is available for India, which had been buying record volumes from Russia. #crude #oil #energy www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

China boosts imports of Russian crude, stymieing India's refiners

One of the balancing acts that has prevented crude oil prices from spiking higher during the Iran war has been India buying record volumes of Russian crude.

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China’s steel output dropped to the lowest so far this year in July, but the picture isn’t quite as grim as the headline number suggests. While #steel for construction is still in the doldrums, demand for vehicles and technology goods is solid and likely to rise. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

China's easing steel output reflects divergent demand drivers

The drop in China's steel output to the lowest this year in July fits the narrative that the world's second-biggest economy is struggling for growth momentum.

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Given the dramatic drop in China’s crude oil imports in July the market would have been expecting a 3rd monthly draw on inventories. Except this didn’t happen, as refinery processing fell sharply, meaning there was a surplus of about 210,000 bpd available for storage. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

China surprises oil markets again with a return to stockpiling in July

China managed to add a small volume of crude oil to inventories in July, as weak refinery processing outweighed a sharp drop in imports.

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US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed almost 9 million bpd of crude oil left via the Strait of Hormuz in the past week, and total Middle East shipments were about 15 million bpd. This is well above the highest estimates by various tracking services. Who is right? www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

The US says more oil is leaving the Middle East, but is it really?

Just how much crude oil is leaving the Strait of Hormuz?

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China coal imports have had their two strongest months this year in July and June, driven by lower domestic output caused by safety checks after a major mining accident in May. But with mining returning to normal levels, imports are likely to start easing from August. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Surge in China's coal imports may start to taper off

China's coal imports surged to the highest this year in July but the strength is deceiving and built on short-term factors that are unlikely to persist.

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The drop in Asia’s total crude oil imports in July almost exactly matches the decline in China’s imports, some 4 million bpd from pre-Iran conflict levels. This means China is adjusting the fallout from the Iran war by itself, but how long can this persist? #energy www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

China is balancing Asia's crude oil demand by itself

China is singlehandedly doing the heavy lifting of cutting crude oil demand in Asia to compensate for reduced shipments from the Middle East as a result of the Iran war.

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The Iran war has once again highlighted the need for energy security, especially for fuel-importing nations. Australia, the world’s largest diesel importer, is looking at a building its first crude oil refinery in about 60 years, but consumers are switching to EVs. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Everybody wants energy security post the Iran war, but how?

The lasting legacy of the Iran war will likely be a renewed impetus for energy-importing nations to lessen their dependence on fossil fuels. The big question for these countries is how to accomplish t...

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Asia’s July imports of crude oil and refined fuels rose to the most since the start of the Iran war, but remain some 4 million bpd below pre-conflict levels. July also reflects cargoes that escaped the Strait of Hormuz during the brief ceasefire in June. #energy www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Asia crude and fuel imports recover, still shy of pre-Iran war levels

Asia's crude oil imports climbed to the highest in July since the Iran war started, but were still 15% below pre-conflict levels.

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It’s all becoming a matter of timing for crude oil markets. The OPEC+ decision to increase September output quotas by 188,000 bpd is meaningless as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. But solve this sustainably and it points to a flood of #crude. #OPEC www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

OPEC+ oil output hike is irrelevant for now, not for later

It's easy to dismiss the decision by the core members of OPEC+ to increase their crude oil production quotas for September as a meaningless gesture in the face of disruptions caused by the Iran confli...

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For the past two decades BHP and Rio Tinto have been synonymous with iron ore and feeding the rise of China as a steel powerhouse. But the main driver of profits is now copper and it’s likely the mining giants will increasingly be seen as copper plays in coming years. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Iron ore giants BHP and Rio are morphing into copper plays

At what point should major iron ore miners BHP Group and Rio Tinto shift to being described in terms of their copper portfolios rather than their contribution to steel making?

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The recovery in Asia’s seaborne thermal coal imports continued apace in July, led by China, which is still seeing constrained domestic output after a mining accident. Japan and South Korea also picked up imports amid surging spot LNG prices caused by the Iran war. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Asia's thermal coal imports continue to rebound, except for India

Asia boosted imports of thermal coal for a third straight month in July as major buyers such as China, Japan and South Korea bought more of the fuel to meet peak summer demand.

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Are crude oil futures mispricing the risks from the ongoing Iran conflict, or are they reflecting a justified optimism that the market will adapt to loss of cargoes from the Middle East? Adaptability may trump optimism or pessimism when determining the price of Brent. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Crude oil futures are pricing market adaptability, not hopeful Iran peace

One of the debates since the start of the Iran war has been whether crude oil futures are accurately reflecting the stresses in physical markets for both oil and refined products, or if they are blind...

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India may be doing the same for Asia’s refined products that China did for crude, ie helping ease the Iran conflict shock. But rather than cutting oil imports, India is buying Russian #crude and ramping up fuel exports, thus capturing high diesel, gasoline margins. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

India's surging refined product exports ease Asia fuel crisis

Can India perform a rescue act for Asia's refined fuels market similar to what China did for crude oil?

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China’s steel sector looks weak with 1H output dropping. In contrast iron ore looks robust with rising imports. But the outlook for the two may reverse, with #steel a potential beneficiary from any new stimulus, while iron ore prices may ease amid plentiful supply. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

China's steel sector looks weaker than it is, reverse for iron ore

China's steel sector presents something of a dilemma in trying to work out if it is soft and likely to continue to weaken, or whether it is actually performing quite strongly given the subdued state o...

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China’s dramatic cut to both crude oil imports and refinery runs have been market surprises, mainly because of how large they were. What’s the next surprise? China may decide to lift product exports to allow refiners to capture the high margins for diesel, gasoline. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

What is China's next surprise for oil markets? Lower imports, higher fuel exports?

If there is a surprise to China's response to the Iran conflict, it's not that the world's biggest crude importer cut back on oil imports and refinery processing, it's the extent to which it did.

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Efforts to eradicate large flightless birds and the current Iran war would seem to have little in common, but Australia’s defeat by emus 100 years ago despite having machine guns shows the limits to superior technology and firepower that Donald Trump is now learning. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Trump could get a lesson on Iran from an unlikely source — emus

For U.S. President Donald Trump, Australia's failed "Great Emu War" nearly a century ago offers a highly relevant lesson: technological superiority does not guarantee victory against a dispersed and r...

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The real pressure point from the ongoing Iran conflict is in refined fuels, with Asia’s trade still well below pre-war levels. China did much to soften the loss of crude through Hormuz by cutting imports, but can it now do the same for products by exporting more? www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

China blunted Iran war oil shock, but can it do the same for fuels?

China's dramatic slashing of its crude oil imports has been credited with keeping prices from spiking during the Iran conflict.

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Asia’s LNG imports are poised to reach a 6-month high in July, but Europe’s will drop to the lowest in nearly 2 years. The contrast emphasises that Europe is now far behind on building natural gas inventories ahead of its peak demand in winter. #LNG #energy #natgas www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Asia's LNG imports recover, drawing cargoes from needy Europe

Asia's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are poised to hit a six-month high in July while Europe's imports plunge to their lowest in nearly two years.

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Making up Mexican food acronyms to help explain US President Donald Trump has been a fun way of dealing with a serious situation. In this spirit I offer my contribution of TAMALES, standing for Trump Always Messes Around, Leaves Everyone Shafted. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Forget TACO. Trump's best Mexican food acronym is TAMALES

One of the clever ways to deal with the unprecedented and disruptive U.S. presidency of Donald Trump is to make up acronyms using Mexican foods.

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Making up Mexican food acronyms to help explain US President Donald Trump has been a fun way of dealing with a serious situation. In this spirit I offer my contribution of TAMALES, standing for Trump Always Messes Around, Leaves Everyone Shafted. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Forget TACO. Trump's best Mexican food acronym is TAMALES

One of the clever ways to deal with the unprecedented and disruptive U.S. presidency of Donald Trump is to make up acronyms using Mexican foods.

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At first glance Saudi Aramco’s massive cut to its crude oil prices to Asia for August cargoes looks like the opening salvo in a volume/price war. But the problem is that other producers like the UAE and Kuwait are already offering even steeper discounts. #crude www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Saudi Arabia slices crude oil prices, but is it enough?

Saudi Aramco has slashed its crude oil prices for Asia for August-loading cargoes, in a move that appeared to signal intent to regain market share and recover volumes after the Iran war.

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OPEC+ agreed to a 5th straight monthly production increase for August and the 7 members with voluntary cuts have almost unwound 1.65 million bpd of cuts agreed in 2023. The questions now are can they actually deliver the oil, and if they can, who will buy it. #OPEC www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

OPEC+ to boost crude output, but can it deliver and who will buy?

The decision by OPEC+ to increase crude oil production quotas for a fifth straight month from August raises two questions.

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Coking coal miners in top exporter Australia face a dilemma, with demand for the steel-making #coal expected to surge as India more than doubles steel output in the next 10 years, but any upside on prices means paying greater royalties to the Queensland government. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Coking coal miners caught between India's surging demand and Australia's taxes

Miners of coking coal in top exporter Australia face the dilemma of balancing expectations of strong demand growth from top buyer India against a royalty tax system they view as rapacious and punishin...

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The crude futures market is priced as if the Iran crisis is fully resolved and oil flows are back to normal. But the data shows Asia’s June imports were only barely above May’s and still around 5 million bpd below pre-war levels. #crude #Hormuz www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Asia's crude oil imports tick up in June but uncertainty reigns

Asia's seaborne imports of crude oil lifted slightly in June but stayed near their lowest in more than a decade as the impact of Iran conflict crimped shipments from the Middle East.

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China is an example of being both the solution and the problem. The latest 5-year plan shows China remains the world leader in renewables. But peak coal won’t happen before 2030, and even as it drops in the power sector, its use as a chemicals feedstock is surging. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

China will lead both renewable energy and coal consumption

China's latest five-year energy plan confirms two seemingly contradictory positions: it will continue to be the world's leader in both renewable energy and coal.

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Asia’s imports of seaborne thermal coal have rebounded since the Iran conflict started, with June arrivals some 22% higher than June 2025. The surge is being driven by major buyers China, Japan and South Korea. India hasn’t boosted buying amid higher prices. #coal www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Asia's thermal coal imports jump on China, Japan, S.Korea buying

Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal are rebounding as China boosts purchases to compensate for soft domestic output and Japan and South Korea seek energy security amid the fallout from the U.S.-Is...

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One of the countries that had been reliant on the Middle East for much of its crude is India. But a sharp swing to buying Russian oil kept it well supplied during the Iran conflict. The same is true for coal, with imports from Russia rising to the most in a year. www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

India pivots to Russian crude and coal to mitigate Iran war fallout

India has swung to buying Russian crude oil and coal to bolster its energy supplies after flows were disrupted and prices rose during the Iran conflict.

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