Caitlin Talmadge
@proftalmadge.bsky.social
MIT professor, Brookings senior fellow, series editor at Cornell Press ⎮ Foreign policy, military operations, civil-military relations, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Views are my own ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army https://www.caitlintalmadge.com/
“Chances are this MOU is both the first and last deal that Trump and Iran ever sign" www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Trump Pledged No Forever Wars. Now He Risks Forever Talks With Iran.
Tehran has a well-worn playbook for drawing out negotiations and putting off concessions that cross its redlines.
wsj.com
More evidence that US-Iran agreement has not effectively addressed Iran's continuing ability to interfere with traffic in the Strait-- a source of Iranian strategic leverage that did not exist before the war. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/w...
After Attacking Cargo Ship, Iran Presses Its Claim to Authority Over Strait
nytimes.com
Iranian long-range precision strike in the Gulf is a harbinger of serious threats to U.S. power projection not only there but also in the Indo-Pacific. Mara Karlin and I wrote a piece on this a couple weeks ago @brookings.edu linked below. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
How Iran Devastated an American Naval Base—and Caused a U.S. Recalculation
Satellite imagery reveals for the first time the extent of what Iran destroyed at Naval Support Activity Bahrain.
wsj.com
Nothing new for Presidents and Secretaries to fire generals-- that is entirely their right. But doing so en masse without explanation is unprecedented and corrosive, as Admiral McRaven perfectly explains in this piece. www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
Americans Deserve Answers From Hegseth
The president and the secretary of defense have a right to remove officers, but also an obligation to explain their actions.
theatlantic.com
"A senior administration official said Iran knows U.S. is unwilling to return to war, raising possibility that Tehran could close the Strait again for its own diplomatic leverage. The official said the agreement is likely to be less restrictive than the 2015 deal." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
The Race to Land an Iran Deal Loomed Large Behind Trump’s UFC Birthday
In one weekend, Trump veered from threatening the “ultimate alternative” against Iran to celebrating what he called a “great deal” to end the war.
wsj.com
There is a lot we don’t know about the MOU US and Iran apparently plan to sign later this week, but a few things stand out based on reports we are seeing: 1/4
Some questions about the purported US-Iran MOU: - Why was war necessary to achieve what is in this agreement? - How does this agreement improve on the JCPOA that Trump abandoned in 2018 even though US certified Iran as being in compliance? 1/2
THIS: "Even if the ceasefire holds, the strategic landscape has shifted in ways that cannot be undone. Iran’s months‑long blockade shattered a decades‑old taboo and demonstrated its ability to weaponise the strait at will." www.lloydslist.com/LL1157463/A-...
A fragile thaw in Hormuz but timing and sequence now matter
A 60‑day US–Iran ceasefire promises to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, triggering rapid market reactions, but the maritime sector remains cautious amid unclear rules, unresolved nuclear negotiations and fears of reclosure
lloydslist.com
Delighted to share this @brookings.edu piece with Mara Karlin on the long-term military implications of the Iran war. www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
The end of the American way of war? | Brookings
The Iran war has demonstrated that U.S. forward-deployed forces in the Middle East no longer enjoy sanctuary from attack.
brookings.edu
“Iran’s decisions show they believe they have the upper hand, with Trump deterred from renewing the fighting." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Iran’s Attack on Israel Reveals New and Aggressive Regional Ambitions
The move to protect Hezbollah shows an appetite for risk that didn’t exist before the war.
wsj.com
Clearest sign yet that Iran doesn't believe it lost this war. Bodes very poorly for any deal-making with US. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/w...
Why Iran Risked an Attack on Israel
nytimes.com
Iran appears to be entering the extended deterrence business. "Where it once used allies such as Hezbollah to insulate itself from conflict with Israel, it is now fighting Israel directly to defend its allies, Citrinowicz said." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Trump and Netanyahu’s Rift Over Lebanon Is Deepening
The exchange of fire between Israel and Iran has brought new urgency to a simmering disagreement.
wsj.com
👀 "Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing Project Freedom. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort." www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...
Trump’s abrupt U-turn on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies
Saudi Arabia, a key Gulf ally, suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, sources say.
nbcnews.com
None of the Iran War's stated strategic objectives have been achieved. Highly repressive regime still in Tehran, nuclear program still intact, missiles & drones still launching. And US now suddenly pausing effort to re-open Hormuz-- a problem that did not exist before the war. It's mind-boggling.
Lots of care at this morning's Hegseth-Caine presser to emphasize that Project Freedom is distinct from Epic Fury, and that exchanges of fire yesterday remained low level. They sure don't want anyone bringing up the War Powers Resolution....
"European security officials say they are worried Tehran might later retaliate for the killing of senior Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by targeting a western leader or military asset." www.ft.com/content/63dd...
Iran’s covert war on opponents abroad
Experts say Tehran is likely to eventually seek retaliation against senior figures over the US-Israeli war
ft.com
US decision to send warships into the Strait still carries significant risk. Not something you do if you think your blockade is about to produce coercive success from afar.
"U.S. military forces including warships and aircraft actively protected several commercial vessels from Iranian attacks Monday" www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Fighting Flares Up in Iran War as U.A.E. and Ships Are Attacked
The Emirates accused Iran of its first attack during the cease-fire as the U.S. deployed warships and jets to protect vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
wsj.com
I would love to be wrong, but this feels like a nothing burger. Essentially a coordination cell. Reinforces that Iran still controls the Strait and US is reluctant to regularly send in warships. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Trump Says U.S. Will Guide Stranded Ships Through Strait of Hormuz
The plan is an arm’s-length effort to unblock the vital supply waterway that doesn’t involve escorts by U.S. warships.
wsj.com
"If we’re running low after a few weeks of fighting Iran, we’re nowhere near where we need to be for Russia and China" www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/u...
Trump’s Plans to Boost Weapons Production Might Not Deliver for Years
nytimes.com
"Vance has repeatedly questioned the Defense Department’s depiction of the war in Iran and whether the Pentagon has understated what appears to be the drastic depletion of U.S. missile stockpiles." www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
The Pentagon May Not Be Telling Trump the Full Picture About the War
Vice President Vance is worried that the U.S. is running low on weapons.
theatlantic.com
It is stunning that the US apparently did not take Iran’s threats to close the Strait seriously, nor does the campaign seem to have recognized the specific military importance of mines as a tool for asymmetric Iranian leverage. Quick thread 1/ www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/u...
Iran Unable to Find Mines It Planted in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says
nytimes.com
The trope is that the US achieves its military objectives but fails to translate them into strategic success. In this war even the first part isn't true. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
First rule of TACO is don't talk about TACO. The President has found a way to climb down from a disastrously ill-conceived war that was not achieving U.S. objectives. Let him.
I am all in favor of this de-escalation. But if Iran gets even some of what it is asking for in its peace plan, it will clearly end this war in a stronger position than it was in beforehand.
"The war-planning group had been kept so tight that the two key officials who would need to manage the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, were excluded." www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...
How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran
nytimes.com
Yes, a lunatic controlling nuclear weapons would be very scary.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 4mo agoTrump: "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. They are lunatics, and you can't put nuclear weapons in the hands of a lunatic."
The Iran War has gobbled up a breathtaking amount of U.S. military capability vital for deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Deploys Bulk of Stealthy Long-Range Missile for Iran War
The next steps in the US military campaign against Iran will commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles, drawing them from stockpiles devoted to other regions.
bloomberg.com
