What do forecasters think will be the benefits of AI? Experts predict that rapid AI progress would have a large positive impact on health, longevity, and wealth. But these benefits would not be evenly distributed across the globe, and have little impact on life satisfaction. 🧵

What do experts and superforecasters predict about potential risks from AI? In the latest wave of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel, we asked for predictions on:   • Major harm from AI   • AI catastrophic risk   • Cybercrime   • Govt AI restrictions   • Democratic backsliding 🧵

How are experts and superforecasters updating their expectations of AI progress? In our latest round of Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) forecasts, we asked for predictions on AI progress timelines, including updated forecasts for a question we last asked nine months ago. 🧵 Read on for more:

We completed the largest study of economist forecasts on AI's economic effects. They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from trends. However, when asked to consider a world with extremely rapid progress in AI capabilities by 2030, they predict significant economic impacts by 2050. 🧵

Today we’re launching the most rigorous, ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP). 339 top experts across AI, CS, economics, and policy will forecast AI’s trajectory monthly for 3 years. 🧵👇

Is AI on track to match top human forecasters at predicting the future? Today, FRI is releasing an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark that tracks how accurate large language models (LLMs) are at forecasting real-world events. Here’s what you need to know: 🧵

🎙️ Our CEO, Josh Rosenberg, went on @deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future. They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more. Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...

Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research

"In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"

tellingthefuture.substack.com

In 2022, we convened 169 experts and superforecasters for the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT). We collected thousands of forecasts in 172 questions across time horizons. We now have answers for 38 questions covering AI, climate tech, bioweapons and more. Here’s what we found out: 🧵

Great to see our report on LLM-enabled biorisk covered in the latest issue of The Economist: www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Our new study finds: recent AI capabilities could increase the risk of a human-caused epidemic by 2-5x. One AI threshold that most experts said wouldn't be hit until 2030 was actually crossed in early 2025. But forecasters predict that enacting mitigations could reduce risk close to baseline. 🧵