Tessera

Emanuel Ornelas

@emanuelornelas.bsky.social

Professor of Economics @ Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV Research on International Trade; Torcedor do/Fan of CAM; 🇧🇷🇬🇧 https://sites.google.com/site/emanuelornelaseo/

8 Posts147 Follower 123 Folgt

Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · 7mo ago

and yet some escalation would actually be positive, or else the threats (and actions) will get worse. That's how bullies operate. We (@julianhi.nz @ckhead.bsky.social @schularick.bsky.social & I. Méjean) made this point in July, and it only got worse since then: www.kielinstitut.de/publications...

An Alliance for Open Trade: How to Counter Trump’s Tariffs - Kiel Institute

kielinstitut.de

The Guardian@theguardian.com · 7mo ago

Trump tariff threats risk triggering ‘spiral of escalation’ in world economy, says IMF

Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Thank you for coming, Christian. Any great session on export promotion ought to have you included!

Christian Volpe Martincus@christianvolpem.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Last week, I had the pleasure to participate in a session on export promotion with two great colleagues, @ericverhoogen.bsky.social and @emanuelornelas.bsky.social, who are conducting fascinating and policy-relevant research in this area.

Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · 12mo ago

Service Offshoring and Export Experience url: academic.oup.com/ej/article-a... Experienced exporters are more likely to source services at destination. Once offshoring, they exhibit reduced volatility and are less likely to exit foreign markets. @gberlingieri.bsky.social

Service Offshoring and Export Experience

Abstract. Service inputs significantly influence export costs and firm internationalisation. A new dataset on French firms’ participation in global value c

academic.oup.com

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · last yr.

J Hinz, @schularick.bsky.social, @ckhead.bsky.social, I Mejean, & @emanuelornelas.bsky.social‬ argue the only effective response to Trump's #tariffs is a united one. Unified retaliation by the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, & South Korea would be impossible to ignore. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Chart of short-run changes in real production under different tariff scenarios for Germany, France, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the US and the EU.

The US administration’s latest threat to impose sweeping new tariffs on many of its closest allies signals a renewed embrace of aggressive unilateralism and misunderstood economics. This column argues that the only effective response is a coordinated one. Unified retaliation by a coalition of like-minded countries made up of the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea – which together account for more than 50% of all US goods exports – would be impossible for Washington to ignore and would send a powerful message that the rules-based global trading system is worth defending.

Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · last yr.

Let’s not lose sight of the big picture. Appeasement won’t work. Instead of rushing to minimize short-term costs, we should stick to WTO principles and pursue a coordinated, proportional, multi-country retaliatory response against rule-breakers

Kiel Institut@kiel.institute · last yr.

Simulations with the KITE Model show a joint response would raise US costs by 34% vs. no retaliation—reaching ~60% of the effect of a global reaction. In contrast, going it alone is less effective and riskier, esp. for integrated economies like 🇨🇦 & 🇲🇽 👇 @emanuelornelas.bsky.social @ckhead.bsky.social

Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · last yr.

A picture is (sometimes) worth just as the paper:

VoxEU @ CEPR@voxeu.org · last yr.

The 2018-19 US-China #trade war failed to generate #employment gains in either the #US or #China. However, it did boost employment in #Brazil, showing that the clash created regional winners. Tiago Cavalcanti, Pedro Ogeda, @emanuelornelas.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Graph of the US-China trade war and Brazilian local labour markets: Formal employment.

In June 2016, Donald Trump justified the protectionist policies during his first administration as “the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country”. This column shows that while the trade war with China failed to create jobs at home, it did boost employment in Brazil. Regions in the country specialised in industries targeted by China’s trade policy towards the US experiencing a relative increase in formal employment and wage bills between 2016 and 2021. With tensions between major economies rising, policymakers in third countries should be aware not only of the risks of global fragmentation, but also of the opportunities it can create.

Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · last yr.

An example of the intricate consequences of a trade war between large countries (and this was the “mild” trade war of 2018-2020…)

Centre for Economic Performance@cep-lse.bsky.social · last yr.

The 2018-2019 US-China trade war failed to create jobs at home, but did boost employment in Brazil. Tiago Cavalcanti, Pedro Ogeda and @emanuelornelas.bsky.social‬ cepr.org/voxeu/colum...

The Review of Economic Studies (REStud)@reveconstudies.bsky.social · last yr.

"This study estimates the carbon-efficient forest cover in the Brazilian Amazon. A $10/ton carbon tax could preserve 95% of the efficient carbon stock, avoiding 42B tons of CO2 & yielding $1.6T in welfare gains." From @araujocrrafael.bsky.social , @franciscocosta.bsky.social & Sant'Anna #EconSky 👇

Emanuel Ornelas @emanuelornelas.bsky.social · last yr.

Trump justifies his protectionist policies as “the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country.” We show that the first US–China trade war indeed created jobs — in Brazil.

CESifo@cesifo.org · last yr.

🚨Working Paper Alert! “The US-China Trade War Creates Jobs (Elsewhere)” ✒️ Tiago Cavalcanti, Pedro Molina Ogeda & Emanuel Ornelas 💼 Can a Trade War create new Jobs? Find out: www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...