Foreign Affairs
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To promote stability and economic growth in a post-aid world, developing countries must “shift their international attention away from the rich and powerful and toward governments closer to home,” argues Eghosa Osaghae.
The Path to Development in a Post-Aid World
How fragile states can fortify themselves.
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China is turning its “inability to produce the food it needs” into a source of geopolitical leverage, write Caitlin Welsh and @brianthart.bsky.social. “By exploiting its importance to food-producing countries, Beijing has found growing opportunities to pressure its rivals.”
China’s Hunger Games
How Beijing turned its food insecurity into geopolitical leverage.
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“AI exists not in a moral universe but in an optimization matrix.” Sebastian Mallaby reviews the first encyclical of Pope Leo XIV’s pontificate, “Magnifica Humanitas”:
God From the Machine
AI and the future of humanity.
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“With global uncertainty on the rise, China hopes that closer contact and clearer communication with North Korea can serve its most important goal—keeping its immediate neighborhood calm,” writes Zheng Jiyong.
Why China Worries About North Korea
Beijing’s plans to manage an assertive Pyongyang.
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“Regime succession in Russia is more than just a question of Putin himself,” writes Julian Waller. “It is also about the eventual passing of an entire generation of elites who surround the Russian autocrat and still cling to most of the highest positions in the state.”
After Putin
Russia’s coming succession crisis.
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“The United States still enjoys dominant legal power, and as things stand, China will be slow to catch up,” writes Mark Jia. “But even as China seeks to grow its legal power, the United States is willfully eroding its own.”
China’s Legal Weapon
Beijing’s quest to challenge America’s legal hegemony.
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In a new episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” Jen Easterly discusses what cyberwarfare could look like in the age of AI—and how the United States can shore up its defenses. Start listening here: https://bit.ly/3UhuVwp
Ignoring the precepts of the Powell Doctrine left Trump’s Iran operation “vulnerable to many different forms of failure,” writes @kschake.bsky.social. “Far from discovering a new way of war, Trump has merely discovered new ways to lose.”
Why We Should Fight
And where Trump went wrong.
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“It is long past time for the United States to withdraw its forces from the Middle East, stop arming governments that violate U.S. and international law, and end its role as guarantor of regional order,” argues Michael Fuchs.
America Must Let Go of the Middle East
The Failed Iran war should spur a long-overdue withdrawal.
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“Neither the neoliberal order nor Trump’s second-term pandemonium offers a way forward.” Read @wallachlori.bsky.social on the case for a new U.S. approach to trade:
The Right Way to Balance Trade
What Comes after the neoliberal order.
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To limit the threat posed by Iran and its allies, the United States needs a regional strategy that addresses “the complex international military, financial, and knowledge networks that now sustains Iranian power,” argue @peterjsalisbury.bsky.social, Wolf-Christian Paes, and Henry Thompson.
How the Axis of Resistance Recovered
The Iranian-led network Is more dangerous than ever.
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Hal Brands examines the United States’ options for approaching artificial superintelligence—and argues that Washington should position itself to “take advantage of a variety of possible futures.”
America’s Superintelligence Dilemma
How to avoid an AI catastrophe.
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To avoid getting mired in its allies’ fights, Washington must use its leverage “at the beginning of a conflict rather than wait for an opportunity that may never come,” argues Dafna Rand.
The New Forever Wars
How America gets stuck in its allies’ fights.
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To prepare for a possibility of a Chinese blockade by fire, “Taiwan should stockpile essential items, including the parts and materials needed to repair port infrastructure,” argue Eugene Gholz and Kerby Davis.
The War China Might Choose
A new Taiwan option.
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Meet with representatives from top graduate programs in public policy, diplomacy, and international studies at Foreign Affairs’ virtual graduate school fair on August 5. Register for free here: https://bit.ly/3Ub7k0o
To “satisfy Riyadh’s quest for nuclear power” without creating new risks in the Middle East, Washington should “reframe enrichment not as a national right but as a regional, internationally controlled service,” argues Yoel Guzansky.
The Looming Nuclear Crisis in the Gulf
Overcoming the enrichment dilemma in the Saudi deal.
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In Latin America, China can make investments almost undetected, writes Natalia Cote-Muñoz. By cutting deals with municipal procurement offices and police academies, Beijing is quietly “making recipient states dependent on China.”
China’s Quiet Quest to Dominate Latin America
Small projects, big influence.
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In Ukraine, Putin’s Plan C is beginning to falter—and Russia’s war effort “is clearly floundering,” write @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Alexandra Prokopenko, and Tatiana Stanovaya. But the Kremlin remains unwilling “to consider a meaningful settlement.”
Why a Weaker Russia Keeps Fighting
Putin sees little need to negotiate.
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The United States needs to be clearer about its objectives in Iran, argues Erik Lin-Greenberg. “Otherwise, Tehran and Washington will continue to get their wires crossed—and the next cease-fire could again collapse.”
The Ambiguity Spiral in Iran
How Trump’s lack of clarity leads to escalation.
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China’s new ethnic unity law codifies, “under the guise of civic inclusion,” a requirement that Mongols, Tibetans, and Uyghurs “become part of a single, party-defined Chinese identity,” write James Leibold and Tenzin Dorjee.
The Next Phase of China’s Minority Crackdown
Forced assimilation is now the law.
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On the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” Robert Lighthizer argues that the free trade system should be thrown out and replaced with one that is more balanced, sovereign, and transparent. https://bit.ly/4fEp5wb
Even if the United States and Iran can reach a more sustainable cease-fire, “the countdown to the next war will have already begun,” argues F. Gregory Gause III in a new essay in the forthcoming issue of Foreign Affairs.
The New Old Middle East
Wars of sound and fury.
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Beijing has reduced head-on confrontations in the South China Sea, but its quieter acts in the region could still alter the strategic landscape in ways that weaken the rule of law and threaten U.S. objectives, writes Lynn Kuok.
Beijing’s Next Play for the South China Sea
How China is normalizing its control.
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“Regardless of what some leaders in Washington think about the changing climate, clean power is what other governments and corporations want,” write Joseph Aldy, Motoy Kuno-Lewis, and Dustin Tingley.
America’s Surprising Energy Advantage
How to beat China on clean power.
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“A strategic investment fund would ensure that the future is not only imagined in America, but made in America, too,” writes former U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
How to Reindustrialize America
The case for a strategic investment fund.
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Eyck Freymann’s new book, “Defending Taiwan,” argues that the United States must respond to China’s gray-zone tactics—or risk enabling Beijing to seize the island “through coercion alone.” Read Bonny Lin’s review:
The Loneliest Island
Will America truly defend Taiwan?
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“Put simply, it is impossible to mobilize for political change while people are starving and bombs are falling.” Read Nader Hashemi on how the end of the war in Iran could lay the groundwork for democratization:
The Hidden Path to Regime Change in Iran
Ending the war can strengthen the prospects for democracy.
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If the United States bolsters Africa’s green transition, it would not only expand the continent’s “access to reliable and affordable energy; it would shore up American economic and geopolitical interests,” writes Mohamed Adow.
Can Renewables Industrialize Africa?
The Iran war is driving the continent toward Chinese-backed green energy.
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“In a world increasingly shaped by Chinese power, the willingness of U.S. allies in Asia to deal with Washington is likely to make them stronger and more secure than European powers will be,” argues John Lee.
How Asia Learned to Live With “America First”
Why allies in Asia Are willing to work with Trump.
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“The United States has more potential economic leverage than China does,” write Ben Vagle and Stephen Brooks. “Still, to be able to use this leverage, Washington needs to act in concert with its Asian and European allies.”
America Still Has the Upper Hand Over China
Washington can win if it works with allies.
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