Stephen Roach
@ssruschina.bsky.social
Author, Yale faculty, former Chief Economist Morgan Stanley. US-China Substack. Last book: Accidental Conflict
The contagion of red-line inflation — from Xi Jinping to Donald Trump. Game theory warns about the loss of credibility associated with multiple red lines. First TACO, now Iran, Trump’s multiple red line tactics are a classic example of a dealmaker who is clueless about strategy.
Trump's Red Line Inflation Problem
Something he has in common with Xi Jinping
open.substack.com
The Taiwan red line was given much greater emphasis at the Beijing summit than in the past. Coupled with China’s other red lines, the risk of increasing red line inflation needs to be taken seriously.
China's Red Line Inflation Problem
Taiwan is only one of China's mutiple red lines.
open.substack.com
Podcast with John Ellis. Covers my views on China, the US-China relationship, and the Summit — and a little about the path that brought me here. open.substack.com/pub/stephenr...
On China
Podcast with John Ellis
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My take on the just completed Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. Long on stagecraft but short on deliverables, this was a classic “place holding summit.” Both leaders went through the motions but didn’t do much else other than declare “mission accomplished” on stability. Time will tell…
A Place Holder Summit
Assessing the Trump-Xi Beijing Summit
open.substack.com
Jointly authored with Max Baucus, former US amb to China, and published by invitation of The Economist under the title, “The pact that could help America and China repair relations,” a BIT could make a real difference to next week’s Xi-Trump summit in Beijing.
The Case for a US-China Bilateral Investment Treaty
The Economist: May 7, 2026
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The possibility of scientific collaboration between the US and China, which is essential for the future of humankind, seems remote today. But if it could occur between two adversaries — USSR/ Russia and the US — there is hope for US-China collaboration. Lessons from the International Space Station.
From Russia With Love
The case for US-China scientific collaboration
open.substack.com
Amid a series of massive illegal policy blunders, US President Trump has set his sights on a triumphant mid-May summit with Chinese President Xi. It is likely to go poorly since Trump has no understanding of Chinese strategy that goes back to Sun Tzu (6th century BC).
Sun Tzu's Advice for Donald Trump
Project Syndicate: April 28, 2026
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World economic growth is barely hovering above the 2.5% to 3.0% danger zone. Facing war, massive global supply disruptions, and Trump’s repeated foreign policy blunders, global recession is likely later this year or early 2027. Don’t be lulled into complacency by frothy equity markets. See attached
Global Recession Alert
Unlike last year's false alarm, the global economy is now in serious trouble.
open.substack.com
Just back from a week in China. K-shaped contrast between Xi-speak and sagging spirits of workers. AI is everywhere except in the diminished sentiment of the Chinese labor market. At odds with resilience in official GDP stats just released for 1Q.
The Spirit of China?
Back in China, I found a growing sense of resignation setting in
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The IMF has just pre-released one of the analytical chapters of its upcoming World Economic Outlook (due out April 14). It is packed with fantastic macro research on wars and postwar recoveries. With the Iranian War now in its 44th day and counting, this is a must read.
The Economics of War
Fantastic new IMF research on the macroeconomics of conflict
open.substack.com
China does strategy. Trump does not. He claims he “will feel it in his bones” when the war with Iran is over. Little wonder he failed to grasp the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz. Obliteration is not strategy, as Trump threatens Iran with another deadline. Sun Tzu explains why.
Donald Trump, Meet Sun Tzu
Chinese strategy vs. Trumpian bombast
open.substack.com
The China Development Forum, long China’s pre-eminent conference of frank and open exchange as conceived brilliantly by Zhu Rongji, has lost its soul. Sad to see after 25 consecutive years as the longest attending foreign delegate — and being disinvited this year.
The Sad Demise of China's Economic Debate
Project Syndicate: March 30, 2026
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Both the US and China, which claim to be fixated on stability, in reality, are flirting with unstable policy and political models. This has heightened uncertainty, taking a toll on their real economies, and further damaged the relationship between them.
The US-China Stability Wildcard
The perils of myopic stability fixations
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First time in 26 years that I was disinvited to the China Development Forum. My analysis of a pirated copy of the agenda shows 117 speakers were given about 6 mins each to opine during 10 seminars over the last two days. Lip service to debate after the rollout of the new 15th Five-year Plan.
The End of Debate in China
The China Development Forum has lost its soul
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“Chinese consumer-led rebalancing was the focus of a popular course, “The Next China,” that I taught at Yale for 13 yrs (2010-22). For the 1,400 students who took that course, my sincere apologies for having misled you that this was close at hand. I still hope that day will come … eventually.”
China's Plan: From Iffy to Disappointing
Final readout on the new 15th Five-Year Plan
open.substack.com
I was holding out hope that the Chinese government might send an important message of its commitment to boost household consumption as a share of GDP. They hinted earlier at that possibility but in the end, they failed to deliver. Implications of this disappointment discussed in this latest piece.
China's Plan: From Iffy to Disappointing
Final readout on the new 15th Five-Year Plan
open.substack.com
I was holding out hope that the Chinese government might send an important message of its commitment to boost household consumption as a share of GDP. They hinted at that possibility in a draft of their new Plan. In the end, they failed to deliver. Implications discussed in my latest piece.
China's Plan: From Iffy to Disappointing
Final readout on the new 15th Five-Year Plan
open.substack.com
China’s new 15th Five-Year Plan purports to deliver on consumer-led growth. Yet too much emphasis on temporary trade-in allowances and not enough support from social safety net reforms. Still a chance for good news, that a consumption target will be released after the Two Sessions end March 12.
China's Iffy Plan
A pro-consumption 15th Five-Year Plan?
open.substack.com
Unlike the fictious war in Albania that was featured in the 1997 film, “Wag the Dog,” today’s war in Iran is very real. But the basic message of the movie endures — a president using war to deflect attention from political problems at home.
Wag the Dog
The relevance of a 1997 film?
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The Supreme Court has put America’s rule of law on the same page with Trump’s tariff policy blunder. This piece examines economic implications of the SCOTUS verdidict — both domestic and global. A victory for the US Constitution, a loss for executive overreach of a wannabe authoritarian.
SCOTUS Shoots Straight on Tariffs
Economics and the rule of law in close alignment
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Ten months ago, I highlighted my top ten reasons to dismiss Howard Lutnick’s “insights” on Trump’s misguided trade policy. Little did I know of the just-revealed character flaws that further discredit any remaining shreds of his credibility. Will he survive as Secretary of Commerce?
Lutnick Redux
Recasting an earlier piece I wrote about Howard Lutnick
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Kevin Warsh has much to gain from studying the real interest rate record of his predecessors. Bottom line: Avoid being Arthur Burns, avoid the “new paradigm” pitfalls of Alan Greenspan, and stay clear of the never-ending emergencies of Ben Bernanke. Study Volcker as a hero of political independence.
Fed Chairs — Past, Present, and Future
Lessons for Kevin Warsh from his predecessors
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“American Exceptionalism” has long been taken for granted. To the extent that leadership is an important aspect of such perceived supremacy, Donald Trump appears to be a disqualifying consideration. How exceptional are we now — especially compared with another country, another system, like China?
American or Chinese Exceptionalism?
Project Syndicate: January 28, 2026
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Donald Trump is heading to Davos having just threatened 8 European countries with coercive tariffs for their reluctance endorse his ridiculous land grab of Greenland. Does Europe have the spine to resist, when the American power structure has rolled over with gratuitous compliance?
Does Davos Have a Spine?
Tariff man goes to Europe
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Jerome Powell’s willingness to take on Donald Trump is an extraordinary act of political courage. It stands in sharp contrast to my personal experience with Arthur Burns in the early 1970s when a politically compliant Fed ushered in the Great Inflation.
Fed Integrity
Jerome Powell's tale of courage
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Contrary to widespread views by China hawks — which include almost everyone these days — America’s snatch of Maduro is unlikely to trigger a copycat operation by China in Taiwan. The most important of the three reasons I cite is strategy, which dates back to to Sun Tzu in the fifth century.
What Does Venezuela Imply for Taiwan?
Xi Jinping will not be tempted by a copycat military operation
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Although diplomacy has long been at the forefront of Sino-American engagement, the rise of politically constrained, egocentric leaders has rendered it ineffective. It is not too soon to start considering a new architecture of engagement for the post-Trump era.
America's Post-Trump China Strategy
Project Syndicate: December 29, 2025
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People are getting more upbeat on China. The IMF just nudged up its f’cst for 2026. Yet the data flow is weak, especially the consumer, capex, and an exploding current account surplus. This increases pressure on consumer-led rebalancing to avoid a further protracted shortfall in the Chinese economy
China's Brittle Economic Resileince
The clock is ticking louder on Chinese rebalancing
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