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The Cook Political Report

@cookpolitical.com

Non-partisan analysis featuring the trusted voices of Amy Walter, David Wasserman, Carrie Dann, Jessica Taylor, and Erin Covey. The right analysis for getting it right. Learn more: cookpolitical.com/subscribe

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · 6h ago

A new poll from The Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision of likely Hispanic voters in Texas finds Trump’s support among Hispanics has collapsed since winning them by 10 points in 2024.

Exclusive New Poll of Hispanic Texas Voters Shows a Collapse of the GOP’s 2024 Coalition in the State

A new survey of Texas Hispanic likely voters, conducted for The Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision, finds the Democratic candidates in the state’s Senate and gubernatorial contests leading th...

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · yesterday

How will we know if 2026 is a wave election in the House? For Amy Walter, the real sign of a wave year won’t be how many seats Republicans lose, but rather the types of seats that change hands.

How Will We Know if 2026 Is a Wave Election? Look to Rural America.

How will we know if 2026 is a wave election in the House? To me, the real sign of a wave year won’t be how many seats Republicans lose, but rather the types of seats that change hands.

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · 7d ago

Hispanic voters, who swung right in 2024 but have moved away from Republicans in the past year and a half, will play a major role in determining control of the House this cycle. Read @erincovey.bsky.social's latest on AZ-06, CA-22 and CO-08:

As Trump Loses Support From Hispanic Voters, Can These Republican Members Hold Their Seats?

Hispanic voters, who swung right in 2024 but have moved away from Republicans in the past year and a half, will play a major role in determining control of the House this cycle.

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · last wk.

Polls close in Massachusetts at 8.p.m. EST. Here’s what we’re watching in today's primary.

What We're Watching in the Massachusetts Primary

Two Massachusetts Democrats face primaries from much younger challengers in Tuesday’s primaries, which will be the last test of Democratic voters’ hunger for a new generation of leadership. But the outcomes may not render a clean narrative.Polls close in Massachusetts at 8.p.m. EST. Here’s what we’re watching.

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · last wk.

Could a blue tsunami really put a state like Mississippi in play? What about South Carolina or Florida? Here's what you need to know about the Senate map from @jessicataylor.bsky.social:

The Senate Map Has Already Expanded. How Much Bigger Could It Get? (Not Much)

With Republicans facing massive headwinds this fall, some Democrats are beginning to dream big — not just about flipping the core competitive states needed to attain a slim majority, but about reachin...

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · last wk.

With 64 days before Election Day, Republicans should brace themselves: The three most plausible outcomes are that it will be bad, really bad, or truly horrible. Read Charlie Cook's latest column:

When a Nightmare Scenario Becomes the Most Likely Scenario

With 64 days before Election Day (although the first mail-in ballots will go out in a matter of days), Republicans should brace themselves: The three most plausible outcomes are that it will be bad, r...

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · 2w ago

The Cook Political Report is changing its rating in the Florida governor's race, moving the contest from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Read @jessicataylor.bsky.social's analysis.

Florida Governor Moves From Solid to Likely Republican

Florida has been a mirage for Democrats during the era of President Donald Trump. Some in the party hoped the Senate race could come online thanks to Alex Vindman’s massive fundraising hauls, but his ...

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · 2w ago

The difference between a bad Election Night and a catastrophic one for Republicans hinges on whether the currently moribund GOP base shows up to vote.

Republicans Have an Enthusiasm Problem. Trump's Solution Won't Fix It.

The difference between a bad Election Night and a catastrophic one for Republicans hinges on whether the currently moribund GOP base shows up to vote.“The enthusiasm gap,” one Republican strategist sa...

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · 3w ago

🚨 Cook Political Report is shifting 4 key statewide race ratings: #TXSEN: Lean R → Toss Up
 #IASEN: Lean R → Toss Up #TXGOV: Solid R → Likely R #IAGOV: Toss Up → Lean D Read our latest: www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/gov...

Texas and Iowa Senate Races Move to Toss Up; Races for Governor Also Move in Democrats’ Direction

The battle for the Senate is about to intensify ahead of the traditional Labor Day starting gun. Republicans still retain a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map, and Democrats still need almost every key race to break their way. But as we recently wrote, in a wave election akin to 2006, even states that President Donald Trump won by double digits could move within Democrats’ reach.

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · 3w ago

One of the best ways to understand the issues driving a midterm election is to follow what the candidates are highlighting in their campaign ads. Read the latest by Amy and Carrie: www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/nat...

This Cycle's Primary Ads Featured One Star, Regardless of Party: Donald Trump

One of the best ways to understand the issues driving a midterm election is to follow what the candidates are highlighting in their campaign ads.Since January, The Cook Political Report, in partnership with AdImpact, has been tracking broadcast TV ads run in every competitive House and Senate race (those rated Toss Up and Lean) and ranking the top issues that Democratic and Republican campaigns are featuring in their advertising.

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · 3w ago

"This is an unusually vexing election. Political history and President Trump’s unpopularity argue for one set of outcomes, but geography and the gravitational pull of partisanship make the opposite case." Read Charlie Cook's latest column: www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/nat...

Can Democrats Find Enough Defectors to Vote Their Way?

This is an unusually vexing election. Political history and President Trump’s unpopularity argue for one set of outcomes, but geography and the gravitational pull of partisanship make the opposite case.

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · 3w ago

Primary voters will have their say in Florida, Wyoming and Alaska today, setting up clashes in November that could be determinative for control of both the House and the Senate. Don't miss our hour-by-hour watch guide: www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/202...

What We're Watching in Primaries in Florida, Alaska and Wyoming

Primary voters will have their say in Florida, Wyoming and Alaska on Tuesday, setting up clashes in November that could be determinative for control of both the House and the Senate.

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · 4w ago

In today’s polarized electorate, asking Senate candidates to outrun their party’s presidential performance by double digits isn’t easy, even with the strong recruits Democrats have landed. But it isn’t unprecedented. Read this from @jessicataylor.bsky.social:

Democrats’ Playbook To Win Back the Senate Isn’t 2018 — It’s 2006.

Senate Democrats’ path to the majority runs through decidedly Republican territory. They need to win in at least two states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits — and potentially more ...

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The Cook Political Report@cookpolitical.com · last mo.

GOP Rep. Max Miller, who is facing allegations of domestic abuse toward his ex-wife and two-year-old daughter, is still running for reelection. We are moving his race from Likely Republican to Toss Up. Read @erincovey.bsky.social's analysis.

Ohio Rep. Max Miller’s District Moves From Likely Republican to Toss Up

GOP Rep. Max Miller, who is facing allegations of domestic abuse toward his ex-wife and two-year-old daughter, is still running for reelection despite mounting pressure from leaders in his party to le...

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