Zoltan Miklosi
@zmiklosi.bsky.social
political philosopher, Central European University
I keep telling people around me that it is not going to be a permanent street party. But so far, it sort of is… If you still hear me saying this six months from now, I should probably stop.
Palma Polyak@palmapolyak.bsky.social · 3mo agoOne month ago today ❤️🇭🇺
By way of illustration, fascinating report from a village of 220 (mostly Roma) inhabitants in Northeast Hungary where Fidesz went from 82% in '22 to 24% in '26. A gift link, but you should support independent HU media, they are doing great work! 444.hu/2026/05/01/8...
82 százalékos Fideszből 71 százalékos Tisza – fenekestül forgatta fel a felsőgagyiak pártpreferenciáit a falubuszaffér
A csereháti Felsőgagy fideszes fellegvárból lett tiszás bástya. A fordulat mértéke még a település prominens lakóit is meglepte.
444.hu
Zoltan Miklosi@zmiklosi.bsky.social · 3mo agoThe most shocking detail is that Tisza won in every settlement category over a population of 1,000, and lost the under-1,000 category only by around 5%. Fidesz used to dominate that category by 30-40%. Stunningly, it is in the smallest villages where O's relative decline was largest. Tisza narrowly
With the full results finally in hand, we can draw a fuller picture of the scale of Orbán's devastating defeat. First, a seemingly technical detail: in most media accounts, you will see the final tally to be 53.2 (Tisza) vs 38.6 (Fidesz). But that is misleading! That count includes mail ballots ...
Zoltan Miklosi@zmiklosi.bsky.social · 4mo agoFor years, but especially in the last few months, I have been trying hard to imagine what it will feel like seeing Orban decisively defeated. I just couldn't. And yet here we are: it is truly and well over. I have more reservations about Peter Magyar than I could say in 300 characters or a thread...
The coolest city in the world in its moment of pure joy. As one reporter wrote, the most telling thing about the crowd was that most people barely bothered to even mention Fidesz. Emotionally, it is as if they have already moved on. Ofc, that won't be so easy, but it was nice to see.
The Atlantic@theatlantic.com · 4mo agoSee supporters of Hungary’s Tisza party and its lead candidate, Péter Magyar, celebrating in the streets of Budapest after soundly defeating Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party in a general election. See more images at the link: theatln.tc/GzuYDsSH
Lots of really great things to think about in this thread...
Zoltan Miklosi@zmiklosi.bsky.social · 4mo agoFor years, but especially in the last few months, I have been trying hard to imagine what it will feel like seeing Orban decisively defeated. I just couldn't. And yet here we are: it is truly and well over. I have more reservations about Peter Magyar than I could say in 300 characters or a thread...
The incoming health minister of the future Magyar government, upon learning of the election results last night (From Instagram)
I hope Georgia's and Serbia's demoralized, disorganized opposition parties take some lessons from this. Find a leader, get out of the capitals, talk to rural voters, build an organization, keep the infighting to the group chats.
Zoltan Miklosi@zmiklosi.bsky.social · 4mo agoFor starters, he barnstormed the whole country six times in the two years that he entered the political stage in the spring of 2024. Here is a visualization by the invaluable Vox populi blog of his last campaign tour, broken down by the 106 electoral districts:
An explainer on how this happened from the mobilization side. : bsky.app/profile/zmik...
Zoltan Miklosi@zmiklosi.bsky.social · 4mo agoFor years, but especially in the last few months, I have been trying hard to imagine what it will feel like seeing Orban decisively defeated. I just couldn't. And yet here we are: it is truly and well over. I have more reservations about Peter Magyar than I could say in 300 characters or a thread...
Very good account of what's just happened
Zoltan Miklosi@zmiklosi.bsky.social · 4mo agoFor years, but especially in the last few months, I have been trying hard to imagine what it will feel like seeing Orban decisively defeated. I just couldn't. And yet here we are: it is truly and well over. I have more reservations about Peter Magyar than I could say in 300 characters or a thread...
For years, but especially in the last few months, I have been trying hard to imagine what it will feel like seeing Orban decisively defeated. I just couldn't. And yet here we are: it is truly and well over. I have more reservations about Peter Magyar than I could say in 300 characters or a thread...
Zoltan Miklosi@zmiklosi.bsky.social · 4mo agoWhat a night
It's weird that all these accounts I follow for other reasons (US politics, international politics, UK, etc.) are posting about Hungary. You gotta give it to Orban, he made HU "interesting" -- in a bad way. I am looking forward to HU going back being an obscure, boring, normal country.
Now we know
Zoltan Miklosi@zmiklosi.bsky.social · 4mo agoAt 18:30, turnout is at 77.8%, a stunning record. There will be no update for a while, but the final number will be just short of 80% or just over. As @palmapolyak.bsky.social wrote, what we saw is either a brutally effective autocratic mobilization or an uprising against autocracy. We find out soon
At 18:30, turnout is at 77.8%, a stunning record. There will be no update for a while, but the final number will be just short of 80% or just over. As @palmapolyak.bsky.social wrote, what we saw is either a brutally effective autocratic mobilization or an uprising against autocracy. We find out soon
Zoltan Miklosi@zmiklosi.bsky.social · 4mo agoAnd at 17h with turnout at 74%, the record is broken with two hours to go until polls close. The dynamics has slowed, though. Final turnout more likely to be around 80% than 82-83%.
Important to keep in mind: no votes have been counted yet.
Palma Polyak@palmapolyak.bsky.social · 4mo agoPeriodic reminder: this isn’t just an election. It’s either a popular uprising against Orbán or an authoritarian mobilization to keep him in power. (And it can absolutely be both.)
And at 17h with turnout at 74%, the record is broken with two hours to go until polls close. The dynamics has slowed, though. Final turnout more likely to be around 80% than 82-83%.
Zoltan Miklosi@zmiklosi.bsky.social · 4mo agoAt 15h, turnout is at 66%. At this pace, the record will be broken by 17h, the next update. 82-83% final turnout is not unthinkable now. Note, however, that not a single vote has been counted yet, and those who know better than me worn against making inferences from turnout data.
At 15h, turnout is at 66%. At this pace, the record will be broken by 17h, the next update. 82-83% final turnout is not unthinkable now. Note, however, that not a single vote has been counted yet, and those who know better than me worn against making inferences from turnout data.
Zoltan Miklosi@zmiklosi.bsky.social · 4mo agoTruly insane turnout. Something unimaginable has to happen in the afternoon for overall turnout not to break the record. 80% is now imaginable. Perhaps people were not lying when 80+% told pollsters they are certain to vote, yet we dismissed those numbers as unrealistic.
Truly insane turnout. Something unimaginable has to happen in the afternoon for overall turnout not to break the record. 80% is now imaginable. Perhaps people were not lying when 80+% told pollsters they are certain to vote, yet we dismissed those numbers as unrealistic.
I don’t know what will happen tomorrow. But it feels like the streets of Budapest are ready for change. I just wish we didn’t have to fight for it again every few decades. 🇭🇺❤️
Still record level. At this rate, 75% final turnout would not be surprising.
Europe Elects@europeelects.bsky.social · 4mo agoHungary: National parliament election Turnout at 9:00 AM EET 2010: 10.23% 2014: 9.50% 2018: 13.17% 2022: 10.31% 2026: 16.89% Nemzeti Választási Iroda ➤ europeelects.eu/hungary #Hungary
I could not resist to write a thread on the HU elections this Sunday. All the non-Orbán-aligned polls show a sizable lead for the main opposition, Tisza, ranging from the very high single digits to over 20%. What's more, by most account, the lead has been increasing in the last three weeks.
If you have Hungarian friends, please check in on them. Netflix has nothing on this election campaign: a twisting spy scandal, Russian meddling, Orbán off the rails. And we still have four days left. I wrote a (still slightly incredulous) rundown 👇 brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/inside-hun...
Inside Hungary’s Election Meltdown
If you have Hungarian friends, check in on them. These past few weeks have been bonkers.
brettoninthewoods.substack.com
If you read only one piece about the HU elections on April 12, it should be this one by @palmapolyak.bsky.social. Each of her points on caution are well-taken, and yet I am a bit more hopeful. Why? Because many of the regime advantages are already baked in the polls, and yet they show Magyar ahead.
Palma Polyak@palmapolyak.bsky.social · 5mo agoCan Péter Magyar win a deeply rigged election? Would Orbán leave power—and would anything change even if he did? How did we even get here, and why, against all odds, do we still cling to hope? I wrote up my (admittedly messy) thoughts ahead of April 12 brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/can-hungar...
Good thread on the upcoming HU elections. I agree with most of the points made. Gerrymander/malapportoinment is the biggest factor. It is estimated to give Orbán a 3-4% edge, meaning he can win a majority of seats even if he loses the popular vote by that margin. If he is down by 7-8%, he is toast.
Gabriela Greilinger@gabrielagreilinger.com · 5mo agoI've been asked over the last few days/weeks what I think will happen on April 12th in Orbán's 🇭🇺 (and the aftermath), so here's my assessment, looking at everything as it stands now 🧵 tldr: It's complicated, and no one really knows (and those who say they do are either lying or overly confident) 1/
