Kevin Cunningham
@kevcunningham.bsky.social
Lecturer in Politics | Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society | Fmr Targeting & Analysis @uklabour | @OULightweights | Chair MA Journalism @wearetudublin |
Interesting the role of young men on Twitter and TikTok here. Much more research required into precise pathways. Appears to be a similar group to those who are anti immigrant and believe conspiracies in previous research
Kevin Cunningham@kevcunningham.bsky.social · 10mo agoI've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future. kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election. @kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations. ➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...
Kevin Cunningham@kevcunningham.bsky.social · 10mo agoI've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future. kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future. kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
Who are the people who spoiled their ballot and why?
An initial analysis
kevcunningham.substack.com
Reasons for vote choice according to the Ireland Thinks polling day poll ⤵️ #Aras25 analysis.irelandthinks.ie/polling-day-... @kevcunningham.bsky.social
Stefan Müller@stefanmueller.bsky.social · 10mo ago📊 @kevcunningham.bsky.social is publishing findings from the Ireland Thinks polling day poll at analysis.irelandthinks.ie
Kevin Cunningham: Catherine Connolly likeliest to be seen as ‘Continuity Michael D’ in presidential race www.independent.ie/opinion/anal...
Kevin Cunningham: Catherine Connolly likeliest to be seen as ‘Continuity Michael D’ in presidential race
What began as a fragmented field is rapidly resolving into a clearer contest and a potential fault line in Irish politics.
independent.ie
It is with profound sadness that RTÉ announces the death of radio presenter and actor Seán Rocks. Seán died last night following a brief illness at the age of 63. Seán is survived by his beloved Catherine and sons Christian and Morgan. May he rest in peace.
New piece for @dublininquirer.com about Dublin City Council's well-regarded Neighbour Transport Scheme, that quietly went away.
Councillors wonder what’s become of those transport schemes to make neighbourhoods safer
They recite schemes that were promised, or piloted, but seem to have gone nowhere. A council spokesperson said similar initiatives still exist.
dublininquirer.com
Given that it is topical, from April's Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent 'Should Ireland withdraw from the Eurovision Song Contest in protest against the inclusion of Israel in the contest?' Yes 55 No 37 Don't know 8
Nearly 800 wards/divisions in now. Reform are still doing better in areas with fewer university graduates, higher levels of employment in manufacturing and primary industries, and where UKIP did well in 2017. The evidence for a big age gradient in the Reform vote looks weak now. @news.sky.com
Will Jennings📉🗳️@drjennings.bsky.social · last yr.We now have >250 wards/divisions reported and an increasingly clear picture of the Reform vote. It is higher in areas with fewer graduates, more people with no qualifications, areas where more people are employed in primary industries (e.g. manufacturing) and areas with more older people.
The key chart right now: Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers. This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified.
Turns out a lot of people who claimed to care about freedom of speech actually don’t.
One of the many problems with having plain clothes secret police kidnapping people off the street in broad daylight is that nobody can tell the difference from criminals doing exactly the same thing. It makes everyone in society less safe.
Hi there @repjournal.bsky.social I've been wading through some of the earliest issues of your Journal and thought you might like this pic of your very first issue from 1908
My latest analysis in the Sunday Independent on where the median Irish voter stands on defence and housing issues. Covering the Triple Lock, NATO, Defence spending, Neutrality, EU Army, Log cabins & one-off-housing planning, tax cuts, derelict buildings... www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...
Kevin Cunningham: Poll shows transactional voters like the idea of back-garden cabins – and more defence spending
A prerequisite of a viable new policy is popularity — if it’s woefully unpopular with the public, it will struggle to be implemented. That’s why governments tend to “fly a kite” on some policy ideas: ...
independent.ie
Hard to say it but, notwithstanding one's position Zelenskyy really f**ked up today and in a way in which I'm not sure we'll recover.
I may be wrong here (and I have been!) but I will guess that this will be among the more popular initiatives. 'NIMBYism' by contrast is very much a minority sport rather than a reflection of popular opinion even in a given locality. A miniscule number of people are blocking developments these.
Exploring the decline of immigration as an issue in Irish politics: analysis.irelandthinks.ie/drop-in-asyl...
Immigration: the dog that didn't bark?
Immigration was the emerging issue throughout 2023 and much of 2024, yet it was perceived to be "the dog that didn't bark" in the general election. Candidates during the election reported that they di...
analysis.irelandthinks.ie
In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election: The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️
Opining again as the gov get winner's bump. m.independent.ie/irish-news/f...
FF and FG did well in our poll but stumbling blocks loom
The major winner of this poll is Fianna Fáil. It will be buoyed by hitting its highest poll in the Ireland Thinks series since January 2020. The party has benefited from a “winners’ bounce”. This is a...
m.independent.ie
Interesting job: Applications to be the next Political Editor of the Irish Independent and Sunday Independent... mediahuis.staging.krakatoa.eu-2.volcanic.cloud/job/politica...
Political Editor
Role Title: Political Editor Department: Editorial Reporting to: Group Head News Role Purpose The Political Editor will be a key leader within the Mediahuis Ireland newsroom. They will oversee ...
mediahuis.staging.krakatoa.eu-2.volcanic.cloud
For your post-Xmas #rstats reading: idealstan now has an updated vignette showing ideal point marginal effects: a new way of understanding how covariates ➡️ latent variables with noisy indicators. + an easter egg about old vs. young Democrats in the Senate 😁 saudiwin.github.io/idealstan/vi...
Everything You Didn’t Really Want To Know, And Therefore Didn’t Really Care To Ask, About The Seanad Elections! (🧵)
In relation to turnout and polling. The register is unreliable of course: lots of duplication (multiple registrations, people who are deceased or abroad) on the register so this isn't necessarily a good baseline for measuring turnout.
