Werner Krause
@krausewe.bsky.social
Political Scientist @unipotsdam.bsky.social - Comparative Politics, Political Parties & Voting Behavior - Quantitative Methods & R Prev. Uni Vienna, Humboldt Uni & WZB Berlin https://krausewe.github.io
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...
OSF
osf.io
Danke @irisbonavida.bsky.social für das Gespräch! Kurz gesagt: Für Parteien an der Vier-Prozent-Hürde macht es einen Unterschied, ob eine Umfrage sie knapp darunter oder knapp darüber zeigt. 📊🗳️ Wer mehr Details wissen möchte – das Paper mit @krausewe.bsky.social gibt es hier: doi.org/10.1086/742632
Iris Bonavida@irisbonavida.bsky.social · 2w agoSonntagsfragen sorgen wieder für Schlagzeilen. Aber wieviel Einfluss haben Umfragen auf das Wahlergebnis? @christinagahn.bsky.social und Werner Krause haben 25 Länder verglichen und in Österreich ein Experiment gestartet. Welche Lehren können Medien und Bevölkerung daraus ziehen? www.sn.at/663088
New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]
New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]
Now out: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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Eelco Harteveld@eelcoharteveld.bsky.social · 11mo agoWhat do citizens imagine their political opponents to be like? Polarization is real, but it also lives in our heads, fueled by stereotypes. We asked people in 🇧🇷, 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪 & 🇵🇱 to describe opponents in their own words. With @jnareal.bsky.social, @markuswagner.bsky.social & @piotrmarczynski.bsky.social 👇
New paper, with Patrick Fournier & @zeynsom.bsky.social, out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social! 🔗 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... a brief 🧵
Do Citizens Perceive an empty Left-Authoritarian Quadrant? Citizen Perceptions of Parties’ Positions in a Multi-Dimensional Space - Ruth Dassonneville, Patrick Fournier, Zeynep Somer-Topcu, 2026
Given that there are few parties in the left-authoritarian quadrant of a two-dimensional ideological space, citizens that combine economically left and sociocul...
journals.sagepub.com
Heading to the #EPSSBelfast conference next week? The EPSS Diversity Committee has organized several events to make this a welcoming space for everyone. Quick thread on what's happening and when 👇
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
One of the most intriguing papers I read during the last years 👇
Werner Krause@krausewe.bsky.social · 2mo agoNew paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Excited to share our new paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @krausewe.bsky.social! Parties polling just below an electoral threshold are far less likely to clear it: a self-fulfilling prophecy that diminishes when polls communicate uncertainty. 🗳️📊 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Werner Krause@krausewe.bsky.social · 2mo agoNew paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
🚨 What happens with voters when politicians use simpler language? New @thejop.bsky.social paper with @rsenninger.bsky.social: simple language changes not just what citizens understand, but who they think politicians are. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Can Simple Language Affect Voters’ Political Knowledge and Their Beliefs About Politicians? | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No 0
How does the level of sophistication in political messages affect citizens? While research has examined how politicians use this element to distinguish themselves, little is known about how it resonat...
journals.uchicago.edu
Less than 1 week left to apply for this exciting postdoc opportunity ⬇️ @kathleenbeckers.bsky.social & I look forward to receiving applications 😀
Katjana Gattermann@kgattermann.bsky.social · 3mo ago🚨New PolCom Postdoc Vacancy🚨@kathleenbeckers.bsky.social & I are hiring on project "Media, Inequality, and Democratic Support" as part of the Horizon Europe project EDGE ⬇️ Start: 1 Oct 2026, length: 30 months, location: @ascor.bsky.social 🤩, DL: 7 June 2026! More info & apply: tinyurl.com/23zdmjhe
Voters for extreme right protest parties have lower levels of subjective well-being, @stevendekeyser.bsky.social, @dieterstiers.bsky.social and I show in a new article in Journal of Happiness Studies @isqols.bsky.social . The effect, however, is almost fully mediated by anti-immigrant sentimens.
New paper w/ @lstoetze.bsky.social "Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls" out in @polanalysis.bsky.social 👀 When your outcomes are compositional (such as vote shares), applying synthetic controls separately to each part can break the math. We show how to fix it: 🧵
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 3mo ago#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social - Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls - https://cup.org/4nInIjU - @bogatyrev.bsky.social & @lstoetze.bsky.social #FirstView
📣 New paper out in BJPolS 📣
British Journal of Political Science@bjpols.bsky.social · 3mo agoNEW - Who Do Parties Speak To? Introducing the PSoGA: A New Comprehensive Database of Parties’ Social Group Appeals https://cup.org/43fmXFj - @alonadolinsky.com, @lenamariahuber.bsky.social & @rwillh11.bsky.social #FirstView
A reminder that applications for this 3-year fully funded PhD position close at the end of next week (May 17). This is a great opportunity to work on climate politics comparative politics in a vibrant environment, with loads of freedom to develop your own project. www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...
Call for applications for a 3 years doctoral contract
For the ERC GREENLOSS Project - Application deadline: May 17, 2026
sciencespo.fr
Very happy to share that I am going to be the new Director of the Democracy unit at the @wzb.bsky.social Berlin Social Science Center. I am excited to form a new research unit on democratic politics and to engage with people in Berlin and elsewhere to make liberal democracy more resilient.
@zeit.de (@tilsteff.bsky.social) mit einem einordnenden Beitrag zum Landesparteitag der AfD in Magdeburg, zu dem auch ich einige Sätze beitragen durfte. > Die AfD ist in Sachsen-Anhalt nicht nur normalisiert und etabliert, sondern auch in sich selbst gewöhnlicher geworden. tinyurl.com/2j4b96ey
AfD-Wahlprogramm Sachsen-Anhalt: Sanfter Ton, radikale Pläne
Zur Wahl im September nimmt die AfD in Sachsen-Anhalt Anlauf auf die absolute Mehrheit. Wie wahrscheinlich ist, dass es dazu kommt? Besuch des Parteitags
zeit.de
🚨 New paper accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social: we were in the field while Brexit dominated British politics. Do MPs respond differently when constituents disagree with the party line? What we find surprised us: a null! url: osf.io/preprints/os...
Popular attitudes are often seen as a safeguard against democratic backsliding: if citizens don’t oppose lib democracy, politicians have little incentive to erode it. In @cpsjournal.bsky.social I argue that, while intuitive, this reasoning conflates two states of the world: doi.org/10.1177/0010...
The standard model of liberal, representative democracy is increasingly being challenged from the bottom and the top. In a new paper @Party Politics, Gidi Rahat and I seek to explain why political parties differ in the conception of democracy they advance. doi.org/10.1177/1354...
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🌀 📊 How powerful are polls in influencing election outcomes? 🗳️ @krausewe.bsky.social & @christinagahn.bsky.social examine how election polls can shape voter behaviour, from bandwagon effects to strategic voting, and why their influence is more complex than it first appears 🤔
How powerful are polls in influencing election outcomes?
Werner Krause and Christina Gahn argue that we need to pay more attention to how the media communicates the results of opinion polls to the public. Reporting methodological details, such as margins…
buff.ly
Very happy to share that our paper "Political socialization and immigrants' support for progressive politics: the case of green parties" with @antvalentim.bsky.social is now published in @psrm.bsky.social! Link to paper: doi.org/10.1017/psrm... Short summary in 🧵below: (1/5)
EPSS Travel Grants for 2026 Belfast conference: PhD students & junior scholars @ institutions in European countries that are often underrepresented, can apply for full fee waiver & £500 stipend Apply: lnkd.in/ehXjhCgf Deadline: March 8, 11:59pm GMT. More details: lnkd.in/eZTP5sWR
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
lnkd.in
🗳️ Neue Prognose: Landtagswahlen in Baden-Württemberg (8. März) und Rheinland-Pfalz (22. März) BW: Kopf-an-Kopf CDU vs. Grüne. RP: CDU und SPD fast gleichauf. Unsere Modellvorhersage mit 5/6-Kredibilitätsintervallen und Szenario-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 👇 zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/f...
🚨 TADA Speaker Series Spring 2026 schedule is here! 🚨 We've assembled a fantastic lineup of researchers exploring the future of survey research in the age of LLMs. Mar 18 - May 27, online at 17:00 CEST. Join us! More info & signup: tada.cool
🧵on my new paper "Synthetic personas distort the structure of human belief systems" w Roberto Cerina I'm v excited about... 🚨 Do synthetic samples look like human samples? We compare 28 LLMs to the 2024 General Social Survey (GSS) to find out + develop host of diagnostics...
Very happy to see our new article “Reference groups and electoral behavior” (coauthored with Rune Stubager, Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard & Michael Lewis-Beck) published! Using ANES, DNES and AUTNES data, we show that liking or disliking social groups shapes vote choice.
Reference groups and electoral behavior | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Reference groups and electoral behavior
doi.org
Ich durfte in der @taz.de ein bisschen was zu Umfragen erzählen, und was soll ich sagen - Berichte über den Tod von Umfragen sind stark übertrieben...
Yannik Achternbosch@yannikacht.bsky.social · 6mo agoIn fünf Bundesländern wird 2026 gewählt, mindestens wöchentlich gibt es neue Umfragen. Mit @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social habe ich in der @taz.de drüber gesprochen, warum wir überhaupt Umfragen machen und welche Stärken und Schwächen die haben: taz.de/Vor-den-Wahl...