War termination negotiations often seem chaotic, but there is an underlying structure to them. I’ve tried to capture developments step-by-step in my series on the U.S.-Israel-Iran War for Parley Policy. Here’s my latest⬇️ www.parleypolicy.com/post/the-whi...

With the White House stepping up its commentary on negotiations with Tehran, some folks may be wondering what to make of it all. Here is my explainer ⬇️ www.parleypolicy.com/post/breakin...

Breaking down the start of U.S.-Iran war termination negotiations

How did Washington and Tehran go from threats to talks? Parley Policy breaks down the conditions that contributed to the initiation of negotiations, the interests at play, how third parties can facili...

parleypolicy.com

How is it that the U.S. & Iran could go from escalating threats to potential war termination talks? My latest analysis breaks down the early dynamics of the negotiation cycle that's at play here and how third parties can help (or hurt). Read more here⬇️ www.parleypolicy.com/post/breakin...

Breaking down the start of U.S.-Iran war termination negotiations

How did Washington and Tehran go from threats to talks? Parley Policy breaks down the conditions that contributed to the initiation of negotiations, the interests at play, how third parties can facili...

parleypolicy.com

Trying to make sense of what we're seeing related to negotiations between the U.S. & Iran? Here's my breakdown of the state of play via Parley Policy⬇️ www.parleypolicy.com/post/breakin...

Breaking down the start of U.S.-Iran war termination negotiations

How did Washington and Tehran go from threats to talks? Parley Policy breaks down the conditions that contributed to the initiation of negotiations, the interests at play, how third parties can facili...

parleypolicy.com

This is pretty cool from One Piece's Eiichiro Oda: Tony Tony Chopper--doctor for the Straw Hat pirates crew--is now an "official supporter" of Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders).

What is the state of play in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations? The Iran war has changed the negotiating paradigm, and if twice-delayed trilateral negotiations don't happen soon, the whole process may be derailed. More from me here (via @kyivpost.com)⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/opinion/72142

Japan has long sought to position itself as a conflict mediator, albeit with mixed results. With renewed calls for Tokyo to step up diplomatically amidst the ongoing Iran War, it will have to face down familiar challenges. I explain (via @japantimes.co.jp)⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/03...

Japan’s push to mediate conflicts meets familiar limits

Tokyo's past efforts to broker peace have had mixed results, and questions remain about how Japan will handle the Iran war.

japantimes.co.jp

President Trump has specifically named Japan as a country that will "hopefully" send ships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. This will assuredly be a topic of discussion in the forthcoming summit between Trump and Sanae Takaichi.

My first deployment to Afghanistan taught me the costs of war. My second taught me the absurdity of it. Sometimes, war is necessary. But once you’ve seen it up close, you also see how often the policy logic underpinning it breaks down.

"War is war. Hell is hell. And of the two, war is a lot worse...There are no innocent bystanders in hell." My grandpa--a veteran of three wars--watched the program every night. I would watch it with him. This scene always stayed with me. Even more so when I experienced war firsthand.

From my analysis published four days ago: "The Netanyahu administration will continue pushing for what it sees as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for regime change in Iran. It will take active efforts from the United States to restrain Israel." Netanyahu today⬇️

Exercise FREEDOM SHIELD kicked off in earnest on the Korean Peninsula today. Some argue that these exercises raise tensions. Others maintain that they are necessary tools for readiness. I break down the debate in my latest for @nknewsorg.bsky.social ⬇️ www.nknews.org/pro/breaking...

Breaking down the debate over military exercises on the Korean Peninsula | NK PRO

U.S.-South Korea combined exercises are kicking off this week after some deliberation on the scale of the training by Seoul, based on the impact on potential inter-Korean engagement.  While the allies...

nknews.org

The Takaichi administration has demonstrated speed and effectiveness in the evacuation of Japanese nationals from countries affected by the U.S.-Israel-Iran War. My latest for @japantimes.co.jp explains more⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/03...

In Iran conflict, Japan shows improved evacuation readiness

Japan’s response underscores both Tokyo’s growing security role overseas and the diplomatic balancing act between Washington and Gulf states hosting Japanese nationals.

japantimes.co.jp

The Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations that were supposed to happen 5-6 March have been delayed due to the U.S.-Israel-Iran War. A few days ago, I wrote about the consequences of the principal mediator being embroiled in a separate conflict with Iran⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/opinion/71043

Many negotiations fail because people get locked into their positions at the expense of their interests. In the recent Iran nuclear negotiations, I identified five mistakes that practitioners should know & understand. Read the breakdown⬇️ www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-wh...

How the White House mishandled the Iran nuclear negotiations

Following the recent outbreak of hostilities with Iran, White House officials have engaged media outlets to explain the rationale behind the war. Among them was U.

linkedin.com

The collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks is a case study in negotiation failure. Based on Steve Witkoff’s own account, 5 mistakes stand out. The lessons here matter because wars can begin--and most often end--at the negotiating table. My analysis here⬇️ www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-wh...

How the White House mishandled the Iran nuclear negotiations

Following the recent outbreak of hostilities with Iran, White House officials have engaged media outlets to explain the rationale behind the war. Among them was U.

linkedin.com

A few weeks ago, PM Sanae Takaichi said she is willing to meet Kim Jong Un face-to-face for dialogue. Then the 9th Party Congress happened. So, where do things stand for Takaichi's North Korea policy now? I answer that question via @japantimes.co.jp ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

Takaichi, Trump and Japan-North Korea relations

North Korea has given no space for engagement on the issues most relevant to Japan — that is, the abductee issue and denuclearization.

japantimes.co.jp

"Kim Jong Un’s old mentors and advisors inside the regime have stepped aside–whether willingly or not–to make room for his allies and new prospects." Read more in my interim analysis of the 9th Party Congress via @thediplomat.com ⬇️ thediplomat.com/2026/02/kim-...

Kim Jong Un’s Ninth Party Congress Personnel Shakeup

The generational shift that the Ninth Party Congress signaled is noticeable: Kim’s old mentors and advisors inside the regime have stepped aside – whether willingly or not – to make room for his allie...

thediplomat.com

During six years at UNCMAC, I investigated numerous security incidents on the Korean Peninsula that could have escalated. These armistice investigations are little-understood tools of crisis management & peacebuilding. I break it down via @nknewsorg.bsky.social ⬇️ www.nknews.org/pro/how-the-...

How the UN Command can help avert conflict with North Korea over drones | NK PRO

When North Korea accused South Korea of flying multiple drones into its airspace last month, the episode had the potential to escalate into a broader confrontation.  The Lee Jae Myung administration m...

nknews.org

The Geneva round of peace negotiations demonstrated that the Kremlin is clinging to its maximalist negotiating strategy. Here's how to counter it⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/post/70376

"...the answer will not always be in procurement of new weapon systems, but rather in looking for ways to repurpose what’s already in its inventory." Quoted in the @japantimes.co.jp on how the GSDF will pursue requirements in the next Defense Buildup Program⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/02...

Japan’s push for long-range weapons draws interest from foreign firms

There is a growing need for a long-range weapon that can be used flexibly as Tokyo looks to boost its overall counterattack capabilities.

japantimes.co.jp

North Korean state media reported that 9th Party Congress proceedings are underway. Delegates quietly arrived on 16 February, and the Workers’ Party of Korea held a credentialing ceremony and visit to Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on 17 February. More below⬇️

Sanae Takaichi’s historic Lower House win delivered both a public mandate and the institutional power to pursue her agenda. But winning big brings its own sets of challenges. I explain more via the @japantimes.co.jp ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

The trouble with winning big for Takaichi and the LDP

Landslide victories in Japanese politics can conceal fragility within the ruling party.

japantimes.co.jp

Before the next round of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. negotiations begin in Geneva, here is my recap of how things played out in Abu Dhabi (via the @kyivpost.com) ⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/opinion/69652

10 years since Kaesong Industrial Complex shut down. Seoul wants it reopened. Pyongyang doesn’t. The reasons go far beyond sanctions, and they point to the structural shift in inter-Korean relations. Here’s why (via @thediplomat.com) ⬇️ thediplomat.com/2026/02/why-...

Why North Korea Is Unlikely to Renew Cooperation at Kaesong

The Lee administration may be hoping to resume cooperation at the Kaesong Industrial Complex. But Pyongyang is just not interested.

thediplomat.com

Want to make sense of the Kim Yo Jong-attributed statement that North Korean state media published this morning? Here's my analysis ⬇️

While many looked at the second round of Russia-Ukraine-US peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi as sign of positive progress, it highlighted four significant problems in the White House's mediation efforts. I explain in my latest for the @kyivpost.com ⬇️ www.kyivpost.com/opinion/69652

What will happen to North Korean POWs in Ukraine? This is an important question to answer when considering the Russia-Ukraine War, inter-Korean relations, and precedent for repatriations. Here's my analysis of their likely fate (via The Diplomat ⬇️ ) thediplomat.com/2026/02/what...

What Will Happen to North Korean POWs in Ukraine?

The South Korean government has repeatedly conveyed its willingness to accept the soldiers as its citizens after the war.

thediplomat.com

How does the North Korean regime use purges in its system of governance? The answer is here in my latest for @nknewsorg.bsky.social ⬇️ www.nknews.org/pro/the-art-...

The art of the purge: How North Korea keeps its elites in line | NK PRO

With the all-important Ninth Party Congress on the horizon, a reckoning may be coming for some of the top officials in Kim Jong Un’s regime. North Korean politics has long been synonymous with purges,...

nknews.org

Wondering what to make of Sanae Takaichi's landslide victory in yesterday's Lower House vote? Here's my answer via @japantimes.co.jp ⬇️ www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

Five key takeaways from Takaichi’s landslide victory

The LDP secured a supermajority on its own, giving Takaichi the golden opportunity to implement her policy agenda.

japantimes.co.jp