Recent arrests around the Rotenberg network look like a Shoigu-style attack on a once-untouchable elite group in Ru.It signals that failures in war-related tasks now raise risks even inside Putin’s inner circle.My new piece for Carnegie Politika on this new rules carnegieendowment.org/russia-eura...

Are Russia’s Influential Rotenberg Brothers Headed for a Fall?

The security forces are targeting Arkady and Boris Rotenberg’s patronage network—and in Putin’s Russia, it’s extremely hard to stop a purge once it’s under way.

carnegieendowment.org

This chart is based on public data of letter-writing evenings for Ru political prisoners. In 2022-2023 in-country events outnumbered those abroad; later many shifted into more discreet formats, resembling the dissident kitchen. The figure shows one of the finding from our @cepa report -- 1/

The Kremlin spent years building a sovereign internet. Yet today, 35-40% of Russians still bypass censorship and retain access to blocked media and platforms. This estimate is more robust than many assume,as I show in my new data-driven piece for CEPA 1/ cepa.org/article/put...

Putin Is Losing the Fight to Keep Russians Offline

Millions of Russians are bypassing Vladimir Putin’s attempts to block access to the internet, and his regime is struggling to keep up.

cepa.org

Recently commented for the NYT on Putin’s push to promote war veterans into bureaucracy. This isn't yet a mass takeover: the Kremlin still worries about manageability. But veterans who pass test role,even drunkard Shuvayev, the new Belgorod governor, can get integrated www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/...

From General to Governor: Putin Pushes a ‘New Elite’ of War Veterans

The popular leader of a region bordering Ukraine is replaced by a military commander as President Vladimir V. Putin looks to reward those who fought in his war.

nytimes.com

A few thoughts on the @istories.bsky.social story about "a report by an intelligence service of a European Union country on the real situation in the Kremlin and the condition of Vladimir Putin." 🧵 1) The basic idea that Putin is more concerned about his personal security seems plausible. 1/10

Vladimir Putin fears an assassination attempt and a coup, tensions among security services are rising, an EU intelligence agency says

Независимое медиа. Расследования, репортажи, интервью и истории о том, что важно

storage.googleapis.com

My last comment for the NYT. The Kremlin pushes toward a sovereign internet, but the move against TG exposed unexpected public and intra-elite resistance. showing that many in society and bureaucracy are not ready to move as fast as Putin and siloviki want www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/...

1/ Two pieces out this week at @cepa.org taking stock of two years under Andrey Belousov at Russian MoD. The structural changes are clearer now than they looked in real time. My text is a contunuation of previous observations, but now with the full data and visualization. cepa.org/article/put...

Putin Demands More Efficient Military Corruption

Changes at the top of the defense hierarchy reveal old-style graft and pressure to raise military spending efficiency.

cepa.org

A new Cedar analysis maps wave of wartime nationalisation in RU. Its findings reinforce point I’ve argued for some time: this process reflects the heterogeneity of Russian elites, and as a result its limited controllability, including from the Kremlin. 1/ cedarus.io/research/as...

Joined the podcast by Meduza on purges in Russian MoD so far. Discussed how it all started, why cases tend to unfold in waves, what it means for Shoigu — and what the reshuffle under Belousov tells us about changes inside the Russian war machine. In Russian meduza.io/video/2026/...

Шойгу не смог остановить разгром своего клана. Чистка в Минобороны затронула десятки человек, сразу четыре бывших замминистра арестованы Могут ли посадить самого Шойгу? — Meduza

.

meduza.io

UPD on Tsalikov case over the last 36 hours. Detaining Shoigu’s longtime No.2 required a rare symphony of 3 security agencies working together — usually a sign the move was cleared at the very top. And yet all this only resulted in his house arrest. 1/ www.kommersant.ru/doc/8496117

Руслана Цаликова приняли по-домашнему

Экс-замминистра обороны проверяется на причастность к новым коррупционным преступлениям

kommersant.ru

Today Russian siloviki detained Ruslan Tsalikov, Sergei Shoigu’s longtime №2 across all his previous positions: Min. of Emergencies, Moscow reg, MoD. Given how MoD purges have unfolded, it looks like the penultimate stop in the chain. The next step can be Shoigu himself www.kommersant.ru/doc/8480988

Задержан бывший заместитель министра обороны Руслан Цаликов

Подробнее на сайте

kommersant.ru

Today Moscow has announced the restructuring of the Gulag Museum into a “museum of the victims of genocide among Soviet people”, now headed by a war veteran. It perfectly illustrates the last years developments in the Kremlin toolkit for managing urban dissent. 1/ www.mos.ru/news/item/1...

Politico published a story with my contribution on the power transfer in Chechnya if Kadyrov were to die. The timing is telling: amid fresh news about the car crash with Kadyrov's son, whom he is grooming as his heir in opposite to Kremlin's candidate. www.politico.eu/article/ram...

Ramzan Kadyrov is on death watch. Again.

Persistent reports about the Chechen leader’s health are resurfacing at a moment of vulnerability for the Kremlin.

politico.eu

A new piece for @euobserver.com an Novaya Gazeta Europe: we continue tracking, via voting behaviour, how the pro-Kremlin bloc in the EP looks. Bad news: it has nearly doubled since 2024. Good news: it’s still too small to shift outcomes and consist of the newcomers euobserver.com/news/ard633...

euobserver.com

My comment for Tagesspiegel looks at Sergei Lavrov’s current position within Russia’s foreign-policy system. He has not been removed — but his centrality is being diluted as Moscow increasingly decentralises the implementation of foreign-policy decisions. www.tagesspiegel.de/internationa...

Spekulationen über Lawrows Machtverlust: Will Putin seinen langjährigen Außenminister loswerden?

Jüngst fehlte Sergej Lawrow bei wichtigen Treffen. Es gab Gerüchte, Russlands Chefdiplomat büße an Einfluss ein. Wie es um sein Verhältnis zu Wladimir Putin bestellt ist.

tagesspiegel.de

1/ Together with @Veer_Laine, I’ve contributed a chapter on Russia to the new Routledge volume Competing Visions for International Order (2025). It explores how Moscow imagines the world as a “sovereign state-civilisation” — a moral counterpole to the West www.routledge.com/Competing-V...

Competing Visions for International Order: Challenges for a Shared Direction in an Age of Global Contestation

This book explores the international ordering visions of key global and regional powers in the international system from 2014 onwards. Using a fourfold analytical framework based on the distributional, normative, institutional, and temporal dimensions of the visions propagated by the relevant political elites in the states/actors in question, the book addresses the ultimate question in international relations for the coming decades: To what extent can the visions pushed forward by the leading po

routledge.com

1/ The Kremlin’s hierarchy is shifting. The new "The Economist" story with my small contibutions explains how the war in Ukraine has elevated a new class — ultra-conservatives, relatives, and "svp" veterans — while sidelining old groups and technocrats in particular www.economist.com/1843/2025/1...

1/ Russia is quietly preparing a new way to send more men to war — without announcing another mobilization. A new, announced today amendment allows special reservists to be mobilized without Martial law and been sent to fight abroad www.rbc.ru/politics/13...

В правительстве одобрили идею Минобороны о спецсборах для резервистов

Правительственная комиссия по законопроектной деятельности поддержала идею Минобороны разрешить использовать резервистов в мирное время. Они смогут решать задачи за пределами России, отметил генерал

rbc.ru

1/ If you’re puzzled by the recent flurry of asset seizures from Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office — and why Igor Krasnov, on his way to a “promotion,” kept signing new expropriation suits — I unpack it in the recently published commentary for Carnegie carnegieendowment.org/russia-eura...

Изъятия на посошок. Как замена генпрокурора перебалансировала силовой блок

Похоже, президент в последний момент решил не вознаграждать за эффективность принесшего бюджету триллионы рублей Краснова, а предпочел умерить его пыл и обезопасить систему от слишком вознесшегося молодого волка с товарищами в ФСБ.

carnegieendowment.org

1/ Russia’s Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov, before moving to the Supreme Court, launched a new asset seizure — this time against SPbGUP, the fiefdom of Alexander Zapesotsky. 🔗 www.kommersant.ru/doc/8058267

Прокуроры занялись профсоюзным обучением

Генпрокуратура требует вернуть государству имущество гуманитарного университета

kommersant.ru

1/ New @bbcrussian piece with my comments on Russia’s icebreaker fleet and why sanctions hit especially hard in the Arctic. 🔗 www.bbc.com/russian/art...

Битва за Арктику. Как Россия начала отставать в производстве ледоколов - BBC News Русская служба

В России за последние три года сдали в эксплуатацию всего один атомный ледокол, хотя до начала полномасштабной войны с Украиной сдавали по судну в год. Российский ледокольный флот стремительно устаревает. Планы Кремля по покорению Арктики буксуют на фоне санкций и сложностей с поставками запчастей.

bbc.com

Continued my annual tradition of writing for @ecfr.eu on Russia’s local elections. The Kremlin uses these votes to test what may happen in the real campaigns In 2025 we saw the growing role of war veterans—now entering regional parliaments and expected to fill the Duma in 2026 ecfr.eu/article/fro...

From battlefield to ballot box: Why Russia is drafting war veterans into politics

The rising prominence of veterans of the war in Ukraine will widen Russia’s elite coalition pushing for continued confrontation with the West…

ecfr.eu

The rising prominence of veterans of the war in Ukraine will widen Russia’s elite coalition pushing for continued confrontation with the West, writes Mikhail Komin @ecfrpower.bsky.social https://bit.ly/41ZOv1o

From battlefield to ballot box: Why Russia is drafting war veterans into politics

The rising prominence of veterans of the war in Ukraine will widen Russia’s elite coalition pushing for continued confrontation with the West…

bit.ly