New York Fed
@newyorkfed.org
Serving the Federal Reserve's Second District (NY, northern NJ, Fairfield County in CT, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands) and the Nation
In a recent article, we shared highlights from a Reuters interview with President John Williams, who discussed his outlook for inflation, monetary policy, and the FOMC’s commitment to achieving price stability. nyfed.org/4fUoBT3
Key Takeaways from President Williams’s Interview with Reuters
New York Fed President John Williams discusses his outlook for inflation, monetary policy, and the FOMC's commitment to achieving price stability in a Reuters interview.
tellerwindow.newyorkfed.org
In today's post, the author explores what the term structure of interest rates can teach us about the natural real rate of return, or "r-star," and how it’s perceived by bond investors. nyfed.org/3SbSQgc
A Window into Bond Investors’ Uncertainty About R-Star - Liberty Street Economics
A look at bond investors’ knowledge about r-star, the natural real rate of return which acts as a guide for monetary policy decisions.
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
In today's post, the authors document the growth of stablecoins since April 2025, examining how shocks outside the crypto industry impact the composition of stablecoins' reserve assets, using the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank & its impact on USD Coin as a case study. nyfed.org/4xgIivl
Stablecoins and (Non)Crypto Shocks: A 2026 Update - Liberty Street Economics
A look at the continued growth of stablecoins since April 2025 and how shocks from outside the crypto industry can impact stablecoins’ reserve assets.
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
In this video, economist Stephan Luck describes recent work employing AI to take a systematic look at newspaper coverage of thousands of bank runs and what they can teach us about bank failures. nyfed.org/4fuYhQh www.youtube.com/shorts/-tKCp...
Using AI to Let History Speak About Bank Runs
YouTube video by TheNewYorkFed
youtube.com
A majority of small businesses in the goods and retail sectors nationally reported experiencing financial challenges due to tariffs in 2025, with even larger shares of small firms in the NY-NJ-CT region doing so. bit.ly/4wM6jKn
In this post, the 3rd in a 3-part series, the authors’ evidence finds that the same internal capital markets that helped banks meet tighter Basel III requirements left nonbank affiliates with thinner buffers and riskier business models. nyfed.org/4x8Iixt
Nonbank Subsidiaries and the Hidden Fragility of Internal Capital Markets Reallocation - Liberty Street Economics
A look at the internal capital markets reallocation that occurred after Basel III and whether it reduced the risk for nonbank subsidiaries as a whole.
nyfed.org
Basel III's binding capital minimums took effect in January 2015. In this post, the 2nd in a 3-part series, the authors show what organizationally complex U.S. bank holding companies did in response to higher capital requirements. nyfed.org/3TjrBAv
How Basel III Changes Where Capital Sits: Nonbank Subsidiaries as Equity Reservoirs - Liberty Street Economics
A look at how bank holding companies responded if their depository subsidiaries fell short of Basel III’s binding capital minimums, effective January 2015.
nyfed.org
Business activity picked up in the New York-Northern New Jersey region’s service sector in July for the first time in nearly two years. Employment increased modestly, and firms grew more optimistic about the outlook for the months ahead. Learn more: nyfed.org/4ypWF1I
In today's post, the 1st in a 3-part series, the authors document the scale of nonbank activity within bank holding companies and describe balance-sheet features that make these subsidiaries a vehicle for regulatory arbitrage. nyfed.org/4fm7dGs
Capitalizing on Nonbanks: Regulatory Arbitrage Within Bank Holding Companies - Liberty Street Economics
A look at nonbank activity within bank holding companies and the balance-sheet features that make these subsidiaries a vehicle for regulatory arbitrage.
nyfed.org
New York State manufacturing activity increased substantially in July, with new orders and shipments picking up sharply. Employment grew for a sixth consecutive month. Price increases remained elevated and supply availability continued to worsen. Learn more: nyfed.org/4pkH2nY
In remarks today, President John C. Williams spoke about the U.S. economic outlook, NYCs economy, and how the FOMC is working to achieve its dual mandate goals. Key Takeaways: nyfed.org/451e17w Read the full speech: bit.ly/4f8CwEk
The nationwide pace of home price growth increased to 0.8% year over year from 0.6% in April. Visit our website to explore the data. www.newyorkfed.org/research/hom...
Our latest regional business surveys reveal that nearly half of firms that have paid tariffs still plan to pass on additional price increases to customers to offset these costs. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/07/more...
Have firms finished adjusting prices, or do further tariff-induced price increases lie ahead? In today's post, the authors share their latest regional business surveys reveal nearly half of firms that paid tariffs still plan additional price increases to offset these costs. nyfed.org/4gsupF4
More Tariff Pass-Through Is in the Pipeline - Liberty Street Economics
A look at whether businesses have finished adjusting prices due to changes in U.S. trade policy or if further tariff-induced price increases lie ahead.
nyfed.org
In this post, the 2nd in a 2-part series, the authors use a new database of more than 3,000 bank runs to show that poor fundamentals are central to explaining both when runs occur and when they have severe economic effects. nyfed.org/4vlXrtU
What Do Over 3,000 Bank Runs Teach Us About Banking Crises? - Liberty Street Economics
A look at the role of bank runs as markers of financial crises using a new database of more than 3,000 bank runs.
nyfed.org
Our June 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short- and medium-term horizons and were unchanged at the longer-term horizon. Learn more: www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/n...
In this post, the 1st in a 2-part series, the authors discuss large language models used to extract information on bank runs from millions of digitized historical newspaper pages, creating the most comprehensive database of bank runs in U.S. history. nyfed.org/4aAofPC
Using AI to Let History Speak About Bank Runs - Liberty Street Economics
The authors create a comprehensive database of U.S. bank runs using large language models to extract information from millions of digitized newspapers.
nyfed.org
In 2021, the authors documented the "overnight drift"—a large, persistent return to holding U.S. equity futures between 2 & 3am ET, when European equity markets open. 5 years of data later they revisit to ask which of three observable channels accounts for the change. nyfed.org/4ghMl5d
The Disappearing Overnight Drift - Liberty Street Economics
A look at how and why the “overnight drift" - the large, persistent return to holding U.S. equity futures between 2:00 and 3:00 a.m. - has faded since 2021.
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
Less than 4% of the $30T-plus outstanding U.S. Treasury debt, associated with on-the-run securities, accounts for 65% of avg daily trading volume. In today's post, the authors study how trading activity & liquidity evolve as securities move from on-the-run to off-the-run. nyfed.org/4geXDY0
Liquidity Fades as Treasuries Age - Liberty Street Economics
A look at how trading activity and liquidity evolve as securities age, using key results in the authors’ paper with transaction-level Treasury TRACE data.
nyfed.org
In today's post, the authors analyze how emerging market economies fared through the U.S. monetary policy tightening cycle of 2022-23 relative to predictions of a model calibrated to capture empirically relevant features of these economies based on historical data. nyfed.org/4oZwSZR
How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022-23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle? - Liberty Street Economics
A look at how emerging market economies fared through the U.S. monetary policy tightening cycle of 2022-23 relative to predictions of a model.
nyfed.org
The nationwide pace of home price growth slowed to 0.3% year over year in April, down from 0.5% in March. Explore the data: www.newyorkfed.org/research/hom...
After staying near 63% for decades, the labor share, which is the fraction of output paid to workers as wages and salaries, now stands at an all-time low in the postwar period. Learn more: libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-...
In today's post, the authors compare the dynamics of the labor share post-COVID to earlier periods to understand whether the recent decline represents the continuation of a trend or a new and distinct phenomenon. nyfed.org/4eqFlBL
The Post-COVID Decline in the Labor Share - Liberty Street Economics
A look at the decline of the labor share of income that occurred post-COVID, comparing its dynamics to declines in earlier periods.
nyfed.org
Today's article shares highlights of President John C. Williams's recent visit to Orange County, N.Y., where he heard about challenges and opportunities in this growing region. tellerwindow.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/23/n...
In today's post, the authors show how an October 2025 price shock in digital assets was transmitted and amplified through synthetic stablecoins—crypto assets that turned an external shock into a self-reinforcing deleveraging spiral within the crypto ecosystem. nyfed.org/4oPgafS
Business activity in the region’s service sector continued to decline in June, but employment picked up notably. Firms expect only modest growth in the coming months. www.newyorkfed.org/survey/busin...
Following strong growth in May, manufacturing activity in New York State increased modestly in June. Employment grew for the fifth straight month, but price increases remained elevated and supply availability worsened. Learn more: www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empir...
Congratulations to the New York Knicks on their historic NBA Finals comeback. You make the Second District proud. #GoKnicks
The 5th Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar, an invitation-only event on June 22 and 23, 2026, organized by the Federal Reserve Board and the New York Fed, aims to garner insights on the evolving role of the U.S. dollar in the global economy. nyfed.org/4dXV1fx
New York Fed Research Conference
Fifth Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar
newyorkfed.org
Our May 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that households’ inflation expectations decreased at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons, while home price growth expectations increased. nyfed.org/4fDfHuF
