Ballot Box Scotland

@ballotbox.scot

Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights. Donate; http://liberapay.com/ballotboxscot

By-Election Preview: Portobello and Craigmillar (Edinburgh) 3rd of September 2026 The SNP are likely to emerge victorious here not because of their own support, but because a healthy Green performance will set up a generous flow of transfers to them.

By-Election Preview: Portobello and Craigmillar (Edinburgh) 3rd of September 2026

The SNP are likely to emerge victorious here not because of their own support, but because a healthy Green performance will set up a generous flow of transfers to them.

ballotbox.scot

By-Election Preview: Southside and Newington (Edinburgh) 3rd of September 2026 The Greens are well positioned for their second-ever by-election win here, which will also be a key test to show whether they have the support for two councillors in one ward next May.

By-Election Preview: Southside and Newington (Edinburgh) 3rd of September 2026

The Greens are well positioned for their second-ever by-election win here, which will also be a key test to show whether they have the support for two councillors in one ward next May.

ballotbox.scot

A very similar ballot in Portobello and Craigmillar to the otherballot, yet without a single "Edinburgh and East Lothian People" candidate. Curious! A real party would stand in both... It's the Holyrood 6, "Alliance for Democracy and Freedom", Family, Communists and Workers Party on this one.

Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Alliance for Democracy and Freedom David Ballantine, Family Niel Deepnarain, Workers Pete Gregson, Green Lorzenso Martinico, SNP Silas MacGilvray, Reform Andrew McLaughlin, Communist Peter Olech, Lib Dem Liss Owen, Labour Jim Wyke, Conservative Haris Young.

Vacating is SNP, 2022 winner is SNP, runner-up Labour, margin of 13.1%. Cause is the resignation of Kate Campbell (SNP). By-election is on the 3rd of September. Prediction is Likely SNP.
Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox.scot · 2mo ago

Portobello and Craigmillar was a comfortable 13% lead for the SNP over Labour after transfers. SNP likely favoured here given Labour's current woes. Curveball: the Greens did so well last month that they might be in contention, but definitely not the favourites.

Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, SNP 37.4, Labour 23.9, Green 16.2, Conservative 15.3, Lib Dem 4.3, Independent 1.6, Alba 1.3

A whopping 13 candidates for the Southside and Newington by-election, including that ridiculous vanity outfit running three for one seat. Otherwise, it's the full Holyrood 6, the "Alliance for Democracy and Freedom", Family Party, Communists, and an Independent.

Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Labour Ruth Elliott, Edinburgh and East Lothian People Derrick Emms, Green Isabella Gastel Alejandre, Independent Roisin Keirdashian, Lib Dem Artie Khovanov, Conservative Nick Layden, Family Richard Lucas, SNP Sam MacKenzie, Alliance for Democracy and Freedom Sean Moffat, Reform UK Gary Neill, Edinburgh and East Lothian People Mark Rowbotham, Communist Richard Shillcock, Edinburgh and East Lothian People Marc Wilkinson

Vacating is SNP, 2022 winner is Labour, runner-up Green, margin of 2.0%. Cause is the resignation of Simita Kumar (SNP). By-election is on the 3rd of September. Prediction is Likely Green.
Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox.scot · 2mo ago

Edinburgh by-elections due on the 3rd of September. In 2022, Labour beat Greens by 2% after transfers. Given what happened last month, Greens should surely be ahead. If they win, that'd be only their second by-election win ever. Curveball: Lib Dems have a formidable local machine.

What is notable about pieces like this is they identify trans rights as a faultline, but I don't think I've ever seen a single Scottish political journalist ever acknowledge that for a centre-left party to take the grotesquely anti-trans position Scottish and UK Labour have is completely abnormal.

Inside Scottish Labour's civil war: Indyref2 and trans rights 'ripping' party apart

Scottish Labour's civil war is about more than just who replaces Anas Sarwar as leader. There are fears the party could be left…

heraldscotland.com

I'm still on a bit of a break period as I'm knackered so preview to come, but look at this nonsense in Southside and Newington by-election candidate list: *three* candidates from this silly vanity outfit. Note that bottom of the paper here (and High Heid Yin of the party) is standing in Clacton too.

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Conservative councillor for Stirling's Forth and Endrick ward, Paul Henke, has sadly passed away, so there will be a by-election to follow; we still have just over three months in which vacancies will trigger by-elections before the "within 6 months of the full election" rule kicks in

Councillor Paul Henke passes away | Stirling Council

Stirling Council has learned that Cllr Paul Henke has sadly passed away. Our thoughts are with Paul’s wife, Dorothy and his family at this difficult time.

stirling.gov.uk

Being reported that Scottish Labour leader and Glasgow MSP, Anas Sarwar, will be taking up a junior minister role at Westminster, via a peerage. If that is indeed the case, not only does it trigger a leadership election, but it also returns Monica Lennon to Holyrood as she's 4th on the Glasgow list

Anas Sarwar set to quit as Scottish Labour leader

EXCLUSIVE: The Glasgow MSP has been down in London for the reshuffle and will take up a job in the new Government.

dailyrecord.co.uk

Whilst everyone else was watching the change of Prime Minister and the reshuffle, I was wondering if any of these boats in the harbour at Gourock were amongst the six belonging to local man of the people, Malcolm Offord

A photograph looking across the Firth of Clyde towards Kilcreggan on a lovely sunny day. A medium sized tanker is making its way upstream, and several small yachts dot the bay nearer the shore

Summer Special: What do the Holyrood results mean for the 2027 locals? With a massive transformation at Holyrood this year, we should expect similar next May in council elections: SNP and Conservative crashes, Reform breakthroughs, Labour underperformance, and growth for the Greens and Lib Dems.

Summer Special: What do the Holyrood results mean for the 2027 locals?

With a massive transformation at Holyrood this year, we should expect similar next May in council elections: SNP and Conservative crashes, Reform breakthroughs, Labour underperformance, and growth for the Greens and Lib Dems.

ballotbox.scot

Now I don't know about you but if I had setup a localist micro party called the "Edinburgh and East Lothian People's Party", well, for one thing, I wouldn't have stood in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, but I certainly would not stand in Clacton.

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Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 3w ago

☂️ Pipaliya (UKV) 🙋 Pocock (Ind) 🤝 Ransley (CNS) 🙋 Smith (Ind) 💂 Stephens (BD) 🇪🇺 Stevens (REU) 🎩 Thunderclap (MRLP) 🙋 Walford (Ind) 🙏 White (EiG) 🙋 Wilkinson (Ind) [3/3]

Remember everyone! Deposits are a vital part of our democratic structure, they make sure that only ~serious candidates~ stand for election, they definitely aren't actually a mechanism by which smaller legitimate parties are drained of cash right at the moment in the campaign they need it most!

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 3w ago

A Record 3️⃣4️⃣ Candidates are Standing in the Clacton By-Election: 🙋 77 (Ind) ⏩ Alkhatip (FWD) 🗑️ Binface (CBF) 🎩 Brick (MRLP) 🙋 Cane (Ind) 🙋 Carrzee (Ind) 🔴 Clouston (SDP) 🙋 Cowne (Ind) 🙋 Cummings (Ind) 🕊️ Davies (FA) 🙋 Erlam (Ind) ➡️ Farage (RFM) [1/2]

Larkhall is a slightly special case, but one of the bits I pick up in here is that whilst Reform beat the SNP and Labour came third, Labour would have beaten both the SNP (by 2%) and Reform (by 2.3%) in a head-to-head, because they were more transfer-attractive here than either party.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox.scot · 4w ago

By-Election Result: Larkhall Reform win their second ever by-election by displacing Labour in one of the most staunchly Pro-Union parts of the country.

Larkhall (South Lanarkshire) by-election, first preferences (vs 2022): Reform UK: 1150 (35.2%, new) SNP: 975 (29.9%, +1.0) Labour: 799 (24.5%, -8.5) Conservative: 342 (10.5%, -14) Reform UK elected stage 4.

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I don't know why councils occasionally do this. It's not legal to get up on stage and go "The winning candidate won this many votes, now go away until tomorrow if you want anyone else's figures", so why are they not taking the few extra seconds to add everyone's votes or a photo of the declaration?

South Lanarkshire Council@southlanarkshire.gov.uk · 4w ago

In the Ward 20 - Larkhall by-election, Fiona McDermott (Reform UK Scotland) was elected at the fourth stage, with 1150 first preference votes. The turnout was 20.9%.

By-election underway for South Lanarkshire's Larkhall ward. After having failed one test last week, this is another key test of Reform's electability in a very different type of area they would expect to do well in. If they can't pull off a win, it'll almost certainly be Labour instead.

By-Election Preview: Larkhall (South Lanarkshire) 9th of July 2026

A by-election in a staunchly Pro-Union part of the country is a huge opportunity for Reform to score a win, though Labour will benefit more from SNP transfer flows.

ballotbox.scot

Headline here is about Highland's licensing committee but one of these four, Wick and East Caithness Independent councillor Willie MacKay, has also quit as councillor entirely, continuing Highland Council's almost permanent election footing.

Four councillors quit after vote for rapist taxi driver to keep operator licence

The four have resigned from Highland licensing committee after voting to allow David Brown to keep an operator's licence.

bbc.co.uk

Looking forward to seeing the transfers on this one, because RUK + CON + IND RT + SFP is 53.3% for the Right, so in theory a path was there for RUK or CON win, but didn't happen. Pre-election some had suggested I may have been wrong to have the SNP included in my three-way tossup call; vindication!

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox.scot · last mo.

Peterhead South and Cruden (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences (vs 2022): SNP: 742 (36.5%, -10.0) RUK: 465 (22.9%) CON: 432 (21.3%, -20.0) IND JR: 150 (7.4%) IND RT: 132 (6.5%) LD: 56 (2.8%, -9.4) SFP: 54 (2.7%) SNP elected stage TBC. (No chart as I'm in office for day job atm!)

Peterhead South and Cruden (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences (vs 2022): SNP: 742 (36.5%, -10.0) RUK: 465 (22.9%) CON: 432 (21.3%, -20.0) IND JR: 150 (7.4%) IND RT: 132 (6.5%) LD: 56 (2.8%, -9.4) SFP: 54 (2.7%) SNP elected stage TBC. (No chart as I'm in office for day job atm!)

By-Election Result: George Street and Harbour An expectedly contrasting result within the Aberdeen South constituency has an easy SNP win, and Labour struggling to keep ahead of the Greens despite low turnout harming the latter.

By-Election Result: George Street and Harbour

An expectedly contrasting result within the Aberdeen South constituency has an easy SNP win, and Labour struggling to keep ahead of the Greens despite low turnout harming the latter.

ballotbox.scot

East Sutherland and Edderton (Highland) by-election, first preferences (vs 2022): Independent: 1044 (40.2%, new) Lib Dem: 854 (32.9%, -2.9) SNP: 452 (17.4%, -9.1) Reform UK: 188 (7.2%, new) Conservative: 59 (2.3%, -14.7) (20.7% non-returns vs 2022) Independent elected stage 5.

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George Street and Harbour (Aberdeen) by-election, 1st prefs (vs 2022): SNP: 583 (33.1%, -9.1) LAB: 255 (14.5%, -5.3) GRN: 232 (13.2%, -0.7) RUK: 177 (10.1%, new) LD: 162 (9.2%, -2.2) IND: 162 (9.2%, new) CON: 146 (8.3%, -2.7) TUSC: 31 (1.8%, new) ALS: 13 (0.7%, new) SNP elected stage 8.

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The other by-election today is for Highland's East Sutherland and Edderton. This is safe Lib Dem territory at parliamentary level now so if a party wins it will be them. However, never bet against an Independent in the Highlands.

By-Election Preview: East Sutherland and Edderton (Highland) 25th of June 2026

This is probably going to be a classic Rural Highland contest between the Lib Dems and an Independent of unpredictable popularity. If the top two are the Lib Dems and A.N. Other Party, the Lib Dem…

ballotbox.scot