"The inventory/sales ratio (measured as the number of days it would take to clear the shelves) has now fallen to 67.9 days, lower than at the trough of each of the last three recessions" -JPMorgan
Daily Chartbook
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"The cost center of energy has become more about delivery than production." -Coatue
"The Magnificent 7 have seen their total annual returns shrink each year since 2023." -Phil Rosen, Opening Bell Daily
"The Russell 2000 small-cap index is on pace to beat the S&P 500 for the first time since 2020." -BBG
Higher margins are not just a Tech story: 10 out of 11 sectors are experiencing margin expansion. via SocGen Kabra
"Fresh all-time highs are bullish. That sounds obvious, but investors often overthink them ... The trend backdrop confirms the message. The Dow is above a rising 50-day moving average and above a rising 200-day moving average." -Grant Hawkridge, The Daily Number
"Corporate demand is now set to reaccelerate precisely as positioning has become materially cleaner" -Citadel Rubner
"The good news for gold is that the global money supply is rising again ... Based on both the level and rate of change of global liquidity, my model suggests that gold could be worth more than its current range." -Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity
"Hard to have faith in the JOLTS data when only about 25% of firms agree to participate when the BLS asks, and only around 30% of them respond in time for the first estimate." -Samuel Tombs, Pantheon Macro
"Is the market a signal, or a substitute for action? Surely it can’t be both." -Dario Perkins, TS Lombard
"The South Korea MSCI is trading at a 4.5 forward P/E, the lowest reading in its history" -Yardeni
Last week, "net weekly purchases on Robinhood were the weakest since April." -Luke Kawa, Sherwood
Last week "was the best week for hyperscalers (vs NDX) ever" -GS Garrett
"US stock valuations have dropped drastically against the rest of the world, with their premium dwindling to only about 22%. That's the lowest in more than six years and well-below the 10-year average of 31%." -Michael Msika, BBG
"Strange how little attention the NYSE Composite gets. It's literally the index of stocks trading on the world's most important stock exchange, and it just closed the month at another new all-time high." -JC Parets, TrendLabs
"Retail's aggressive buying of semiconductor and memory stocks sharply reversed in late July, with selling reaching roughly 20x the two-year average." -Citadel Rubner via WallStEngine
Last week, "US equities saw the largest net buying since Nov '20 (+3.9 SDs 1-year), driven by short covers across Macro Products and Single Stocks, as overall long flows finished relatively modest." -GS Stankard
"US manufacturing activity expanded in July at the fastest pace in more than four years as demand remained strong, production surged and firms added workers." -BBG
"Exposure to the equity market and tech stocks has increased in many portfolios, including the benchmark World Portfolio that often guides asset allocation." -Goldman Sachs
Oracle "is spending heavily to establish itself as an AI hyperscaler — and this has made it more expensive to insure against default than it ever was during the crisis 18 years ago" -John Authers, BBG
"Oracle and SpaceX are both triple-B-rated issuers. But according to the market, they look more like junk bond companies." -FT
5 of Friday's best charts and insights:
"The Taylor Rule by John Taylor, who Warsh spent a lot of time with at Stanford has been updated"
DC Lite #652 | Taylor Rule prescription, rising long rates, Bitcoin implied volatility, BTC trading volume, Situational Awareness, S&P 500 Q3 EPS revisions
dailychartbook.com
During July, analysts increased bottom-up EPS estimates by 0.3%. They typically reduce estimates during the first month of a quarter. via FactSet
"There's something for everyone as the dust is settling: AI bulls can say a massive positioning overhang has now vanished; AI bears can point to the well-earned warning that the most vicious rallies are bear market rallies." -Luke Kawa, Sherwood
"Implied volatility for BTC nearing its lowest levels on record, with front end nearing 30%, which for context is roughly 1/3rd of 'hot' assets like Kospi. Meanwhile trading volume at multi year lows. Bear market apathy things." -Will Clemente
"Why are long rates at the highest level in 20 years? 1) Inflation, 2) Fiscal problems, 3) Hyperscaler issuance. The bottom line is that we're not going back to the 2010s, and this is good news for everyone cutting coupons in high-quality fixed income." -Apollo Slok
"The Taylor Rule by John Taylor, who Warsh spent a lot of time with at Stanford has been updated. Spoiler, it suggests that the current rate of interest rates is way too low." -Diane Swonk, KPMG
