Jim Savage

@abiylfoyp.bsky.social

Metascience, philanthropy, partner acrobatics

From yesterday's exhibits in US v. Sam Bankman-Fried: The prosecution shows that the "insurance fund" that FTX bragged about was fake, and just calculated by multiplying daily trading volume by a random number around 7500

Github diff showing addition of code:

def _get_change()-> Decimal:
    daily_volume = current_session().query(func.sum(Trade.size * Trade.price)).filter(
        Trade.created_at > datetime.now() - timedelta(days=1)).scalar() or Decimal()
        return f2d(numpy.random.normal(7500, 3000))* daily_volume / Decimal('1e9')

@always_run_in_transaction(ro=False)
def update_public_insurance_fund():
    change = _get_change() sess = current_session() +
    public_insurance_fund = Public InsuranceFund.get(sess)

sess.add(Public InsuranceFundChange(public_insurance_fund-public_insurance_fund, size-change))
    public_insurance_fund.size += change
    sess.commit()FTX
@FTX_Official
The 5.25 million FTT we put in our insurance fund in 2019 now makes the fund worth over 100 million USD
https://ftx.com/status

Screenshot:
Backstop Fund
Size: 5,478,274.51613972 USD, 5,250,000.000000000 FTT
Last updated: 14/02/2021, 08:05:00

I've developed a new forecasting tool! You tell me what your education intervention is, including the full details of how it changes teacher and student behaviors. Then I use advanced AI methods to predict that the effect size is 0.1 SDs. #econsky

Crowdsourcing ideas for a document of "solved problems worth solving". Structure: - Here is a problem and the real consequences - Other places have had the problem and solved it. - If 5-10 people spent a decade on it, they could prob solve it here.

I want to see a show like Alone but called “Together”. Groups have to form and survive in small tribes, allocating roles and dividing labor, creating lore, egging each other on. And fighting moose.

Summers Corollary: it takes as much effort to think about a policy reform that changes the world as changes academia; and only one of those matters; so you might as well focus on the world