Africa Confidential
@africa-confidential.com
In-depth analysis of political, economic and security developments across the African continent since 1960. See more: http://africa-conf.com/m/Africa-Conf
A new $33.9m Japanese #rareearths project is being promised in #Namibia, in a region that contains dysprosium and terbium, key materials used in electric vehicles, wind turbines and defence technologies. #JOGMEC africa-conf.com/japan-secure...
Japan secures foothold in Namibian rare earths as supply race intensifies
JOGMEC and Toyota Tsusho agree a joint venture for the Lofdal deposit, but questions remain over downstream processing
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The Government of #Kenya hopes to extract reserves valued at $62bn from Mrima Hill, a sacred site for the #Digo people. Seven consortia have been shortlisted, including three US firms. #Ruto hopes the site can become a model for local processing. #Niobium #REEs africa-conf.com/trump-linked...
Trump-linked consortium edges forward in race for Mrima’s $62bn mineral prize
The Digo people’s opposition to mining on their sacred sites complicates a deal Ruto has staked his presidency on
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#Uganda’s opposition leader of the Forum for Democratic Change, #KizzaBesigye, has been denied access to legal counsel and kept in poor conditions in jail. Now he has collapsed during a court appearance and whisked off to intensive care. africa-conf.com/besigyes-hea...
Jailed Besigye's health crisis threatens Uganda's US trade push
Kampala's lobbying campaign for tariff relief collides with mounting scrutiny of its treatment of the opposition
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#Kenya: Despite local resistance backed by environmental NGOs, President #Ruto is pressing ahead with discrete talks to multiple bidders to build and operate a $62bn mine in #MrimaHill. africa-conf.com/trump-linked...
Trump-linked consortium edges forward in race for Mrima’s $62bn mineral prize
The Digo people’s opposition to mining on their sacred sites complicates a deal Ruto has staked his presidency on
africa-conf.com
After the extraordinary events of Thursday, where at least 49,000 migrants crossed into #Ceuta, #Morocco’s standing with the #EU has been badly damaged - after the most serious crisis in the Spanish exclave since 2021. africa-conf.com/ceuta-crisis
Ceuta crisis exposes fault lines in EU migration strategy
Emergency talks in Brussels this week could see Spain becoming the scapegoat for a border breach with continental implications
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#SouthAfrica: Africa’s largest manager of state assets – the Public Investment Corporation (#PIC) – is in meltdown. With its chair suspended and board members jumping ship, Finance Minister #Godongwana has stepped in as disputes carry on burning through the courts. africa-conf.com/godongwana-t...
Godongwana tries to stabilise $220bn pension manager after governance crisis
Technocratic appointments aim to reassure markets, but unresolved court challenges and a fresh damages claim complicate the Public Investment Corporation’s reset
africa-conf.com
Without strong oversight, a 55% rise in Nigerian military spending is more likely to enrich contractors than significantly improve security. #Tinubu #Nigeria africa-conf.com/security-anx...
Tinubu accelerates military build-up as security anxiety dominates pre-election mood
A 55% jump in spending and four new army divisions promise more boots on the ground – but weak oversight means the windfall risks enriching contractors more than improving security
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#AirZimbabwe’s first Harare-London flight in over a decade has been heavily promoted as a patriotic triumph. But behind the fanfare lies a fragile airline, deep debts and a relaunch built almost entirely on outsourced capacity. africa-conf.com/mangudyas-ai...
Mangudya’s airborne makeover restores London flights
The Mutapa Fund wants a win after its shuffle of state assets. A revived airline route to Britain flight provides one – but at a price, and with a partner carrying its own baggage
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#Ruto is choosing loyalty above all else in a reshuffle of his communications team – installing a hard-line police spokesman as chief communicator ahead of next year’s elections. #Kenya africa-conf.com/ruto-reshuff...
Ruto reshuffles communications team as the country braces for volatile election cycle
Installing a hard-line police spokesman as chief communicator suggests Ruto is choosing loyalty over reconciliation ahead of next year’s elections
africa-conf.com
The #ICC’s chief prosecutor, #KarimKhan, has resigned after sexual misconduct allegations. The departure comes as a blow for the court, but could open the door for greater African representation. africa-conf.com/icc-prosecut...
Prosecutor Khan is ousted as African states eye greater sway over the Court
Karim Khan's removal by a two-thirds of member states raises fresh questions about the ICC’s future amid US pressure
africa-conf.com
With #BobiWine in exile and #KizzaBesigye jailed on treason charges after his abduction in Nairobi, #Uganda’s main opposition figures are sidelined as General #Muhoozi positions himself as heir apparent. africa-conf.com/a-rift-in-th...
A rift in the First Family
Gen Muhoozi’s latest aggressive crackdown on his political opponents has prompted criticism from his brother-in-law
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#Namibia: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s January visit signalled Moscow’s interest in Namibian #uranium, whilst also seeking access to Niger’s supply mined by French #Orano – adding another layer to the resource contest. africa-conf.com/nandi-ndaitw...
Nandi-Ndaitwah leans on Beijing
New agreements with China come as weak growth, rising debt and stalled job targets sharpen pressure on the administration
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#GetachewReda is pursuing a near impossible balancing act. While condemning #AbiyAhmed’s actions in the 2020-22 war as genocide, he still considers the PM a ‘friend’ who he can work with. #Ethiopia #Tigray africa-conf.com/getachew-reda
Getachew Reda – Abiy’s unlikely ally
, When the Tigray regional authorities were locked in a devastating war with Ethiopia’s federal government between 2020 and 2022, Getachew Reda was a senior Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)…
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#Cameroun: Rumours swirl in #Yaoundé about President #Biya’s health. At 93, and stuck in Geneva for a month, suggestions that his days could be numbered has fuelled talk of coups and succession. #Cameroon africa-conf.com/biyas-succes...
Biya’s Geneva stay sharpens succession risk
The president’s absence has held-up decisions in Yaoundé, triggering concerns over the un-named vice-president and a political rupture
africa-conf.com
In February, re-election looked certain for @HHichilema: opposition was splintered, and Edgar Lungu’s death cast a shadow over politics. Since, accountant-turned-lawyer Brian Mundubile has emerged as the main challenger. africa-conf.com/moving-goalp...
Moving goalposts
New electoral rules and an uptick in the economy should have given Hichilema a clear run at re-election, but Lungu’s ghost lingers in a new challenger
africa-conf.com
Despite securing #CAB3 with huge parliamentary majorities, #ZANUPF is scrambling to contain dissent. Moves to silence critics inside and outside the party suggest the regime remains uneasy even with total control of the legislature. #Zim africa-conf.com/opposition-m...
Opposition mounts to term extension
President Mnangagwa’s allies and securocrats warn they will arrest dissident officers ahead of the 31 July protests against the constitutional overhaul
africa-conf.com
President #Mnangagwa has signed #CAB3, a constitutional amendment giving him two extra years and reshaping #Zimbabwe’s electoral system. But ZANU‑PF’s ‘thank you’ rallies reveal anxiety as opposition groups mobilise legal and civic challenges. africa-conf.com/opposition-m...
Opposition mounts to term extension
President Mnangagwa’s allies and securocrats warn they will arrest dissident officers ahead of the 31 July protests against the constitutional overhaul
africa-conf.com
#Uganda: A rare public rift in the First Family is emerging as #OdrekRwabwogo posts critical videos targeting excesses in the ruling party, widely seen as aimed at Gen. #MuhooziKainerugaba, who has threatened opposition leaders on X. africa-conf.com/a-rift-in-th...
A rift in the First Family
Gen Muhoozi’s latest aggressive crackdown on his political opponents has prompted criticism from his brother-in-law
africa-conf.com
African states are 30% better prepared for health emergencies, says the new #AHSIndex, but experts warn progress is being outpaced by rising threats as Congo‑Kinshasa battles an #Ebola outbreak with no approved vaccine. #Africa #Health africa-conf.com/ebola-expose...
Ebola exposes preparedness gaps
, African countries are, on average, 30% better prepared for a health emergency than they were at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021, according to the Africa Health Security (AHS) Index…
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#SãoTomé and #Príncipe’s President Vila Nova wins re‑election with 56% amid record‑low turnout. The result strengthens PM Ramos and the ‘new parliamentary majority’, while dealing a blow to Trovoada, whose faction contests Ramos’s ADI leadership. africa-conf.com/trovoada-set...
Vila Nova win – Trovoada setback
, On 19 July the incumbent President Carlos Vila Nova was re-elected with 56% of the vote. His main challenger, Nito d’Abreu, secured 41.4%. Only 41.3% of the 142,191 registered voters cast their…
africa-conf.com
President #Hichilema may have fixed the constitution in his own favour and diluted the opposition… but #Zambia’s ever-shifting politics – and the President’s mixed record in office – could blow open the race to lead the country. africa-conf.com/moving-goalp...
Moving goalposts
New electoral rules and an uptick in the economy should have given Hichilema a clear run at re-election, but Lungu’s ghost lingers in a new challenger
africa-conf.com
#AfricaConfidential is now on #Substack. Click to subscribe for off-piste insights and musings on developments across the continent by our Editor, Patrick Smith. #Africa africa-conf.com/substack
#GlobalWitness alleges #FirstQuantum Minerals bankrolled President #Hichilema for years – with sources claiming up to $50m promised for the 13 August elections despite the #UPND’s pledge to reject foreign funding. africa-conf.com/hichilema-ca...
President Hichilema faces claims of capture by top copper miner
Global Witness report alleges First Quantum funded Hichilema's rise en route to becoming the country’s biggest copper producer
africa-conf.com
Since 2021, #Zambia’s mining tax changes have cut industry bills by US$305mn a year. #GlobalWitness says #FirstQuantumMinerals alone saved $771m between 2022 and 2025 and now produces more than half of the country’s #copper. africa-conf.com/hichilema-ca...
President Hichilema faces claims of capture by top copper miner
Global Witness report alleges First Quantum funded Hichilema's rise en route to becoming the country’s biggest copper producer
africa-conf.com
The #DCP’s Sammy Waweru Ngotho won #OlKalou with 35,440 votes to #UDA’s 5,450, despite the governing party deploying Ruto, Kindiki, seven ministers and 91 MPs – and spending heavily on handouts. africa-conf.com/rutos-mount-...
Ruto's Mount Kenya problem deepens as his deputy's authority falters
The president’s costly election strategy is unnerving both the ruling party and its opponents
africa-conf.com
#UDA MP David Gikaria was fined for voter bribery and Jubilee MP Wanjiku Muhia for inciting ethnic violence, underscoring the toxic tribal rhetoric ahead of next year’s presidential polls. #Kenya africa-conf.com/rutos-mount-...
Ruto's Mount Kenya problem deepens as his deputy's authority falters
The president’s costly election strategy is unnerving both the ruling party and its opponents
africa-conf.com
#RigathiGachagua’s DCP has taken Ol Kalou in a landslide, handing President #WilliamRuto a bruising defeat and cementing Gachagua as Mount Kenya’s main political force despite his impeachment. africa-conf.com/rutos-mount-...
Ruto's Mount Kenya problem deepens as his deputy's authority falters
The president’s costly election strategy is unnerving both the ruling party and its opponents
africa-conf.com
#Mozambique’s central bank warned ‘sovereign risk continued at a severe level’ in its most recent report published last week. Public debt remains a main vulnerability, in particular short term treasury Bonds and Bills, it claims. africa-conf.com/chapos-debt-...
IMF talks put debt reform back at centre of Chapo’s plan
The Fund’s return to Maputo offers the government a chance to rebuild external credibility, but negotiations will test its willingness to impose fiscal discipline
africa-conf.com
#Uganda was suspended from the African Growth and Opportunities Act (#AGOA) in 2024 following the enactment of its anti-homosexuality act. A new lobbying push may reverse the suspension. africa-conf.com/musevenis-ta...
Museveni hires US lobbyist for tariff relief and AGOA return as alarms ring over Muhoozi succession
Kampala is looking for a wider bargain with Washington, combining market access, investment promotion and security co-operation
africa-conf.com
#Uganda was suspended from the African Growth and Opportunities Act (#AGOA) in 2024 following the enactment of its anti-homosexuality act. A new lobbying push may reverse the suspension. africa-conf.com/musevenis-ta...
Museveni hires US lobbyist for tariff relief and AGOA return as alarms ring over Muhoozi succession
Kampala is looking for a wider bargain with Washington, combining market access, investment promotion and security co-operation
africa-conf.com