So, I pay remarkably little attention to electoral politics these days. What is the tl;dr on why people are upset about Michigan?
Jordan Nafa
@ajordannafa.com
Staff Data Scientist, Bayesian Statistician, ML Engineer, and Software Architect in the Gaming/Entertainment Industry | Bayesian Statistics, Experimentation, Decision Theory, Guitar | Former Political Scientist https://www.ajordannafa.com/
I'm old enough to remember when people still thought SMOTE was a legitimate solution to class imbalance in predictive modeling 😮💨
A p-value is what you get when you try to do statistical decision theory, but you've tried nothing, and you're all out of ideas.
“A p-value is the most widespread statistical concept that is not definable in a single sentence“ CHECKMATE
The problem with the new "Seems like AI Slop" button on LinkedIn is that like 95% of LinkedIn content seems like AI Slop... 😬
Got to see one of my all-time favorite songs live, so that's one more item checked off the bucket list
Finally making up for fucking up and booking my honeymoon the wrong week in 2023.
I will never not chuckle at this beam at Billy Bob's, directly adjacent to the stage.
Finally making up for fucking up and booking my honeymoon the wrong week in 2023.
Man, if you think tech companies intentionally making social media addictive was bad, wait until we start to see the effects of a not insignificant portion of Gen Z developing a gambling addiction. We of course won't even try to regulate this abomination until the damage is already irreversible.
There are simply no words for how fucking cooked we are.
Most of the hate Nickelback gets is probably undeserved.
Post your hottest music take. Mine is New Order is better than Joy Division.
This is your periodic reminder that the best approach to dealing with anonymous accounts with cartoon profile pictures is to block them on sight.
People should have the option to work where they are most productive, and RTO mandates are almost exclusively driven by narcissistic leadership and managers who can't feel effective unless they can see their serfs working.
one thing about the stupid hammer approach to RTO is that it polarized a lot of people into believing that everyone should have the option to WFH 100%, which often isn’t in the best interests of the company *or* worker, but i can’t blame anyone who ended up there, the bosses threw the first punch
I think one of the most important lessons I've learned over the past year is that my ideal job is at a company of between 5 and 50 people.
I opened and merged 3 PRs today and reviewed ~5 more. My coworker just reminded me it's only Monday, and that was a profound act of violence 😑
Every time a Claude subagent goes off the rails and ignores my rules that say never use method-scoped imports in Python, I can't help but wonder how on earth method-scoped import patterns made it into the training data. Like, who was writing Python code that does an import **inside** of a method?
Have we considered the possibility that this band of lunatics (Johnson, Theil, etc.) might be actual vampires? Has anyone tried exposing them to sunlight, garlic, or silver?
extremely normal guy voice: I cloned myself so I can become my own blood boy.
Gas is up $.60 week over week, because Trump is a fucking idiot
Gas prices are high. Americans think they’re even higher. 3 in 5 Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of results from our poll. And 46% say the change in gas prices will impact how they plan to vote in November.
"Never, under any circumstances, having to log into Looker ever again" is really, really high on my list of career goals 😅
Doing math with AI does not feel as good as doing math without ai, but more like having a friend (much smarter than you) give you just the hint you need to gain traction. Traction is what matters to me now. Traction pays the bills.
Probably one of the easiest mid-2000s songs to recognize based on its intro chord progression or drum lead-in. Anyway, really driving home the reality that I cannot sing worth shit but nevertheless persist, here's Red Jumpsuit Apparatus - Face Down
Man, the "air" button on the Focusrite Scarlett 2i2 is like the difference between "I can't sing worth shit" and "this is somewhat bearable"
Now this looks like an interesting paper
Happy to see this paper out. It deals with a practical question in Bayesian causal inference: “𝘈𝘳𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘺𝘰𝘶'𝘳𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨?” Short answer: you may not be. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
I feel like at least 1/4 of my job has become writing guardrails (rules, skills, etc.) to enforce standards and quality around AI-generated code, largely because people have increasingly stopped reading the code they commit altogether, and getting the model to care is easier than getting a human to.
The more I learn about JavaScript, the more convinced I am that it is basically the biggest security vulnerability surface since Adobe Flash 😬
You can tell that Anthropic and OpenAI are scared to death about competition because the rhetoric here is completely unhinged and a baseless scare campaign.
apparently we are headed for "full AI communism" www.reddit.com/r/Artificial...
Once Kimi K3 and Qwen 3.8 are available through Google Vertex and AWS Bedrock, Anthropic will have a serious problem: an Opus-class open-weight model and carefully engineered guardrails will deliver production-quality code at a fraction of the cost.
On one hand, this post aged well. On the other hand, I was expecting it to take a little longer. Kimi K3 is basically Opus 4.8 for 40% less cost.
On one hand, this post aged well. On the other hand, I was expecting it to take a little longer. Kimi K3 is basically Opus 4.8 for 40% less cost.
Combine that with all of the major models being open source, and it seems inevitable that they'll catch up to the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI and provide a competitive solution for a fraction of the cost.
>Higher education experts across the political spectrum told NPR the test sets a pretty reasonable expectation: In many states, federal data shows, graduates of bachelor programs will have to earn a minimum of about $30,000 to $41,000 a year for their program to pass. This is a non-story.
“You can make more without a college degree because of how much college costs” is the ultimate conservative dumb guy college take, grounded in the idea that there are a ton of trades jobs out there that will make you like $100k a year, and the data for it just isn’t there.