Andrew Small
@ajwsmall.bsky.social
Asia Director at ECFR. Formerly: European Commission, German Marshall Fund. Posting on China / US / Europe Books, articles: andrewsmall.org
✍️ New policy brief Europe's leaders understand the challenge China poses to its industry, economy and security. But the EU still responds one tariff, one sector and one restriction at a time. Instead, Europe should turn its system into its power, argues @ajwsmall.bsky.social https://bit.ly/3SdKSmt
The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms – European Council on Foreign Relations
The EU can exploit its system to say no to China—now, and long into the future
ecfr.eu
With the European Council set to discuss China tomorrow, I have an @ecfr.eu paper out on how to put Europe’s approach on a new footing, leveraging the European system as a strategic asset: ecfr.eu/publication/...
The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms – European Council on Foreign Relations
The EU can exploit its system to say no to China—now, and long into the future
ecfr.eu
Merz’s trip to China is less a bilateral tour than a signal-setting moment: his words and stance will influence whether Europe pivots to a more assertive China strategy or lets Beijing lock in a costly status quo, writes @ajwsmall.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social Full text: https://bit.ly/4kVtOvQ
Merz in Beijing: A chance to flip China’s “stability” narrative – European Council on Foreign Relations
Problem China will try to use German chancellor Friedrich Merz’s trip to Beijing on February 24 to bolster a narrative of "stability" amid turbulence unleashed
bit.ly
Quick take on EU-China (or China-EU) climate joint statement: We'll do more of the same and we'll commit to make some commitments later. vs. last joint statement back in 2021 - in which China stated that it was going to 'strictly control coal consumption (it didn't)
EU readout on the summit in Beijing today; no surprises… see Finbarr’s thread for more
Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham.bsky.social · last yr.ENDS - full readout here: ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
EU-China summit is underway in Beijing. In this thread I will collate interesting points from remarks and readouts through the day. First, Xi Jinping's opening remarks, as run by CCTV this morning news.cctv.cn/2025/07/24/A...
news.cctv.cn
Looks like the EU and China have a deliverable for their summit. Joint statement on climate is done, negotiations wrapped up overnight. Will go to ambassadors at Coreper II today for approval
I have a GMF piece up on the backstory behind this week's low-content EU-China summit. A "success" that won't feel like one: www.gmfus.org/news/just-sh...
Just Showing Up
gmfus.org
📈 THURSDAY: EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit, a virtual discussion with GMF's @noahbarkin.bsky.social, Gunnar Wiegand, @ajwsmall.bsky.social, Penny Naas and Eva Valle Lagares, Head of Unit, Far East, Directorate-General Trade, @ec.europa.eu 🎟️ Register now:
EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit
Heightened economic and geopolitical tensions mark the state of EU-China trade relations as a summit between their leaders approaches. How are the two parties navigating the global restructuring…
gmfus.org
New Chinese trade data out today for May may deepen anxiety over trade diversion in Europe. China's exports to the US down 34.52% China's exports to the EU up 12% China's exports to Germany up 21.5% China's exports to France up 24.1% China's exports to Netherlands up 7.1%
Both had hoped to do this with the US…
Sense Hofstede@sensehofstede.nl · last yr.Japan and EU eye launch of ‘competitive alliance’ scheme to boost trade – Kyodo News: ‘Under the framework, Japan and the EU will work together to diversify supply chains for rare earth minerals’ ‘align subsidy conditions for environmental technology’ ‘promote reform of the World Trade Organization’
Onshoring / friend-shoring critical raw material value chains should be included in NATO's upcoming 5% target! My call on European Ministers of Defence to break China's critical raw material chokehold ASAP. @euiss.bsky.social www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
European Ministers of Defence - Save Europe, invest in mining!
Critical materials are the backbone of modern defence. For Europe's rearmament to succeed, the EU defence ministers must break Beijing's chokehold on these essential resources.
iss.europa.eu
Merz messages on China in Bundestag speech: - China will remain "important partner" of Germany & Europe - Germany to pursue strategic de-risking, reduce one-sided dependencies. - Relations w/China increasingly defined by systemic rivalry. - Growing ties between China & Russia of "great concern"
China's trade data for April came out this morning. Have just had the chance to do some sums based on last April's numbers, and for Europe it is an absolute bloodbath. EU exports to China are down by huge numbers, while China's exports to EU members keep surging 🧵
Xi’s visit to Moscow this week is a usefully-timed reminder to European policymakers of the hard ceiling on China-Europe relations in the coming years. My @gmfus.bsky.social colleagues put a neat little video together laying it out... More here: www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew...
German Marshall Fund@gmfus.bsky.social · last yr.🇨🇳🇷🇺 President Xi is in Moscow this week, demonstrating his deepening ties with President Putin. What are the security implications of Russia & China’s closer relationship, and what questions do European leaders face? GMF Senior Fellow @ajwsmall.bsky.social answers. www.youtube.com/shorts/hSqo1...
A few quick thoughts on how China is likely to deal with the current situation with India-Pakistan (since I am getting some questions...)
Andrew Small@ajwsmall.bsky.social · last yr.Thanks for the nice mention, Patrick. Here’s a quick rundown of how things have evolved since the book was published. Basic equation is the same: China supports Pakistan with military kit, diplomatic shielding, does not provide significant assistance to Pakistan in conflict scenarios beyond that 1/9
Breaking: Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting for the EU, fined TikTok a huge 530 million euro for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from access by Chinese authorities TikTok admitted hosting European data in China www.barrons.com/news/tiktok-...
TikTok Fined 530 Mn Euros In EU Over China Data Transfer
Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting on behalf of the EU, fined TikTok a massive 530 million euros ($600 million) Friday for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from acce...
barrons.com
EU spokesperson tells me: no plans to drop sanctions on China just because Beijing s lifting sanctions on some MEPs "The EU has not observed changes in the human rights situation in China/Xinjiang. Therefore, the Council maintains the China/Xinjiang - related designations"
Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham.bsky.social · last yr.In case you missed it last night: China is dropping sanctions on EU lawmakers, in place since 2021, as it looks to capitalise from the US' hostile turn towards Europe www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
🎙️ Can Germany cope with Xi and Trump at the same time? That was the question on Berlin Briefing. Thank you @richardwalker.bsky.social for having me on the podcast, and good to always hear what @ajwsmall.bsky.social of @gmfus.bsky.social has to say! 🔗 WATCH/LISTEN: www.dw.com/en/dwcom-ber...
Trump team has not said what it wants in trade talks, says EU https://www.ft.com/content/c9bec30c-e0b6-4d50-a3bb-feb11eadc13c
Trump team has not said what it wants in trade talks, says EU
Top negotiators met in Washington on Monday to discuss how to remove so-called reciprocal tariffs
ft.com
Readout: Maroš Šefčovič's meeting with Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer lasted “a couple of hours” and focused on three areas: - The EU's offer for a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal on all industrial goods - Global overcapacity in steel and aluminum - Supply chains of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals
"Top Trump official tells Europe to choose between US and Chinese communications tech" - article then focuses on satellites (where Europe is ramping up its own programs) and telecoms (where the US itself mostly uses European tech): www.ft.com/content/0a08...
Top Trump official tells Europe to choose between US or Chinese communications tech
FCC chair Brendan Carr urges ‘western allies’ to pick Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet company
ft.com
Constructive phone call discussion with Premier Li Qiang. We took stock of the state of EU-China relations as we approach 50 years of diplomatic ties and on global issues. Read-out ↓ europa.eu/!FtFk49
And the Dutch tech autonomy crusade continues: The Dutch Central Bank now warns about the security of debit card payments, citing concerns about Europe’s over-reliance on American Visa and Mastercard. nos.nl/artikel/2560...
DNB maakt zich zorgen over Amerikaanse invloed op pinbetalingen
Pinbetalingen kunnen gebruikt worden als drukmiddel omdat ze via Amerikaanse bedrijven lopen. "Onwenselijk", noemt DNB dit risico.
nos.nl
Europe risks "being less able to decide our own future and increasingly pushed around by large economic, technological and military blocs seeking to gain advantage over us". Think this will be the underlying concern informing EU China policy in the new landscape. "Rapprochement" is not an option...
Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham.bsky.social · last yr.Uncompromising words on China in the Commission's defence white paper, also published today, which lays out the rationale for re-arming Europe It says "authoritarian states like China increasingly seek to assert their authority and control in our economy and society" ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
Translation: “Why is Everyone Talking About China ‘Seizing’ Australia?” "I have nothing positive to say on this topic, nor any constructive suggestions. I simply wanted to share with all of you the immense shock I felt."
Translation: “Why is Everyone Talking About China ‘Seizing’ Australia?”
Following China’s unannounced naval exercises off the coast of Australia late last month, there has been a noticeable increase in Chinese social media content promoting the invasion (or “nabbing/seizi...
chinadigitaltimes.net
Helpful initial assessment of some of the early moves from China to take advantage of the USAID vacuum
E. Rosalie@erosalie.infoepi.com · last yr.🧵Aid, Trade, & Shade: China’s USAID Ambitions The suspension of USAID has created a vacuum that China appears to be filling with state-controlled development, aid, educational programs, and influence campaigns. infoepi.org/posts/2025/...
Great scoop from the FT: EU probes BYD plant in Hungary over unfair Chinese subsidies. This would be massive for Brussels-Budapest & Brussels-Beijing relations if it proceeds on.ft.com/4kBDlHV
EU probes BYD plant in Hungary over unfair Chinese subsidies
Investigation comes as Viktor Orbán has attracted large Chinese investments to his country
on.ft.com
Xi Jinping, “angry” about the Li Ka-shing port deal, “had originally planned to use the Panama port issue as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the Trump administration”, Li “acting against Beijing’s interests”: www.wsj.com/world/china/...
Exclusive | China’s Xi Is Angered by Panama Port Deal That Trump Touted as a Win
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is angry about a Hong Kong company’s plan to sell Panama Canal ports to a U.S.-led group, in part because the company didn’t seek Beijing’s approval in advance.
wsj.com
Beijing’s line to Europe is - you have a Trump problem now, so should be more conciliatory to us; will aim to see what they get for nothing and try to exploit the situation, not make any gestures
Henry Foy@henryjfoy.ft.com · last yr.China’s Xi Jinping has declined an invitation to visit Brussels for a summit to mark the 50th anniversary of ties, as the EU questions the sincerity of recent Chinese diplomatic overtures Cracking story by @andybounds.bsky.social & @bmoens.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/1ed0... @financialtimes.com