when I didnt study for the test but the smartest kid in class is sitting next to me

We really need more independent and high quality polling of this race, and some of ASR's polls have been internals. But at some point, you have to wonder why even 60 days before the election, Peltola is keeping a +1-3 margin over Sullivan. We'll see what happens as GOP ads settle with voters.

Ivan Moore@alaskasurvey.bsky.social · 2mo ago

BREAKING: New Alaska US Senate poll results! Mary Peltola continues to lead this hugely significant race - she has not trailed in our polling since the summer of 2025. Alaska Survey Research August 20-23, 2026 N=2,063 registered Alaska voters, MOE +/-2.5% N=1,495 likely voters, MOE +/-3.0% 🧵1/12

"guys how bad can ballot exhaustion REALLY be, surely alaskans just need a few cycles to get it down to less than 10% right?" here's how every statewide and legislative rcv allocation went in 2024. pay attention to the yellow:

Besides Eric Hafner (rando guy in prison in NY), all of the competing Dems have dropped from AK-AL. Midterms have a lot more high propensity voters, so it'll be easier to spread awareness about Hafner and get his vote share down. Plus, there's now an (L) spoiler.

you sick fucks

While we wait on 20-30k ballots, I want to give some local perspective to the Alaska's legislative races. We have multipartisan majorities in both chambers and have a real shot at expanding them. As a lifelong Alaskan, I'd like to introduce you to the places behind the races🧵

Unfortunate but the RCV portion of this poll is just not even worth your consideration. Alaska is an open primary top-4 RCV general system. Instead of asking an RCV q for the top 4 polled by ASR, he polls *6*. Because so many are R’s, this poll systematically favors D’s.

Ivan Moore@alaskasurvey.bsky.social · 4mo ago

ROUND 1 (6 candidates): Begich/Hnilicka 22.1% Wilson/Shower 21.8% Bronson/Church 16.9% Kreiss-Tomkins/Johnson 15.5% Bishop/Schuerch 13.2% Walker/Hoffbeck 10.5% Walker/Hoffbeck eliminated 🧵9/13

Of the 6 uncontested #akleg races this year, only 2 are from swing districts. One of them is State Senator Bill Wielechowski (D) of East Anchorage, from a Harris +5/Peltola +14 district. Why not contest it? Wielechowski is one of the top overperformers in the Legislature.

whats your dream ak gov ticket?

forgot that bluesky exists for a second oops

Proud of the staff at The Homer News and the Peninsula Clarion who are resigning. Unfortunately, thanks to Sarah's cancel culture crusade, Alaska is losing four fantastic local journalists. Vance NEEDS to be held accountable for her overreach of power.

Several staff at 2 Alaska newspapers resign over handling of article by parent company Carpenter Media

Two reporters and two editors from the Peninsula Clarion and Homer News cited actions by their parent company in altering an article after pushback by a state lawmaker in their resignations.

adn.com

Jake Dye@jakecdye.bsky.social · last yr.

Editors and reporters of the Homer News and Peninsula Clarion submitted their notices of resignation today, after management from Carpenter Media Group made changes to a published story last week in response to intimidation from a state lawmaker and without input from our newsrooms. #aknews

Dunleavy Republicans wrote an amendment expanding corporal punishment in Alaska's schools. Here's MAGA Rep. Jamie Allard's surprisingly great speech against it. "I was a child of the 70's. They whipped us. If I saw one of those teachers, I might run them over with a bus!"

I could write a book about how white people are addicted to tokenizing conservative indigenous voices to entrench anti-indigenous sentiments. these are the (mostly white) Alaskans who refuse to say Utqiaġvik instead of Barrow and who look down on Native communities struggling with abuse/poverty.

Fun fact: Alaska Republicans have not controlled all 3 branches in the state since *2014*. This year is also the first time since we were a blue state that R’s are out of power in BOTH branches. (this map by @statisticurban.bsky.social shows control of state gov after November)

Rep. Sarah Vance won re-election with the lowest margin of victory in her career. Independent Brent Johnson was one of few Dem-backed candidates to outrun both Harris AND Peltola. My hometown of Homer went hard for Brent, but low Dem turnout sunk his chances.

you know we’ve lost Myrna’s when all the straight people are singing along to every song 😅

This is missing a lot of data since I’m constantly streaming music on YouTube, but this is definitely a fair representation of my year in music lmao

Despite a small red wave, D’s *net* 1 seat in the House. 5 more seats and we would have had a majority — which makes Peltola’s loss all the more painful.

i think what's so daunting to liberals about trump's comeback is that the shift was so widespread. brain breaking margins for R's in cities D's normally dominate in. the actual *margin* trump will win by is very, very small. it's just that his coalition was so *efficient*

Of Alaska's 40 House Districts, the top 10 shifts to the left from 2012-2024 are ALL in Anchorage — every single one being from the suburbs. Jamie Allard (HD23), the most extreme MAGA R in the Legislature, sits in a Romney +37➡️Trump +19 seat. Peltola came within 10 points of winning it.

i don't really think people realize what a 25% tariff means. like if you think inflation was high from 2021-2023?? hahaha. silly and tiny compared to what's about to happen.

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · 2y ago

forgot how absolutely moronic “tariff policy by tweet” was and am dreading having to deal with this stupidity for four years again.

i want chappell roan to sing hot to go with the muppets and i want her to be miss piggy's first lesbian kiss. i will execute one hostage every hour until these demands are met

To my knowledge, the Alaska State House is the *only* state legislative chamber to flip from 🔴➡️🔵 This is bc @TheAlaskaDems just flipped 3 House seats. A Dem-led multi-partisan coalition now controls BOTH the House and Senate. Not enough people are talking about this!!

Great write up on how Ballot Measure 2's vote correlated pretty strongly with Native-majority precincts — home to some of the highest rates of Independent registration in the state. When we say "Alaska is so independent", we mostly mean rural and non-white voters.

Bolts@boltsmag.org · 2y ago

Alaskans rejected a measure to repeal ranked-choice voting by 664 votes, with all ballots counted. Across the state’s three majority-Native House districts, the ‘no’ vote won by 2,960 votes, 64 to 36 percent. boltsmag.org/alaska-...

unalaska only has one health center that provides urgent and emergency care. but now, they can't afford to keep providing that kind of service anymore. the island is a fishing hub and home to 4,000 residents, so it's not a lack of patients ... it's a reimbursement issue. my latest:

$20M expansion aims to address Unalaska’s emergency care funding challenges

Unalaska's community health center is preparing to start construction on an expansion that could help secure emergency care funding.

kucb.org

Huge fan of musicals and especially Wicked, but I didn’t totally know what to expect from Cynthia and Ariana. It was… actually a blast. Their strange chemistry in interviews definitely translated on screen.

sometimes I forget dan sullivan exists and he’s literally my senator

Cliff Groh will lose by 0.62% in a district that voted for Trump by 16% this year. He was the strongest downballot Dem in the state and lost because of high JBER turnout. In 2026, JBER wont turn out much since it’s a midterm. Hope Nelson enjoys being a 1-term backbencher again.

Forrest Dunbar@forrestdunbarak.bsky.social · 2y ago

I texted my well wishes to Cliff Groh, telling him I've lost close ones too and that he ran a great campaign. Here is his response:

BREAKING: Ballot Measure 2, a Republican-led effort to repeal open primaries and ranked choice voting in Alaska, is now FAILING by 192 votes.

Not terribly surprising, but the 1st choice votes of conservative-leaning presidential candidates were most supportive of the RCV repeal in Alaska. 76%of 1st choice Trump votes voted Yes on the Repeal. In comparison, just 12-13% of Harris/Stein/West voters voted Yes. Data: @cinyc9 from Twitter