Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.

Another reminder that Gen Z can be difficult to characterise - almost 1 in 3 think a wife should obey her husband (twice rate of boomer men) but are also most likely to think that women with a successful career are more attractive (41% agree)

Pressure on Keir Starmer from some quarters to launch offensive strikes against Iran (as opposed to just shooting down drones/missiles as they are launched at British bases), but what do the public actually think? 🧵

Cost of living hasn't stopped been top issue since pandemic, comes up without fail across focus groups with energy and food prices biggest drivers. If Govt can own this fall in prices it will be an opportunity to do claim a tangible 'we've made your life better' win.

Financial Times@financialtimes.com · 5mo ago

British energy bills to fall as price cap cut by 7% ft.trib.al/olCTPSU

The Resolution Foundation confronting the effects of its policy recommendations

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 5mo ago

The number of young people not in education, employment, or training (NEET) increased slightly at the end of last year to reach 957,000. Our response to the latest data⬇️ buff.ly/kQizC0S

🧵Reform’s promise to scrap the employees’ rights act as part of the Great Repeal Bill could risk alienating a group of their potential voters. Here's why it's a risk Firstly, as polling we've done for @jrf-uk.bsky.social shows - Brits across voter groups support key elements of the act

In our latest poll at @moreincommonuk.bsky.social, we show that Reform voters are still overwhelmingly motivated by one issue: immigration

Pork barrel spending isn't all bad... (levelling up spending was overwhelmingly in Tory/Lab marginals) People like big, visible investments in their area, even if they're superficial at first glance to most

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Totally agree with this. From conversations with people in areas where they had done the 'making nice' work people noticed it, it made them feel better about their area and was a sign that govt (local, regional, or national) actually cared and could help them. Obvs not only piece, but a big one

Pollsters like @yougov and @moreincommon are showing different results for upstart parties, particularly Reform and the Greens - this largely comes down to how we weight by potential turnout and past vote (great article from @peterkellner.bsky.social) kellnerp.substack.com/p/why-the-po... (1/10) 🧵

Why the polls are all over the place

Their differences matter and need to be explained. Here’s a start

kellnerp.substack.com

I’m reaching out beyond my comfort zone: I've written for @conservativehome.bsky.social using polling data and evidence from focus groups for @moreincommonuk.bsky.social arguing that Reform UK🇬🇧 have hit a poll ceiling, and are in a weaker position than any point in recent history (1/)🧵

Albert Ward: Reform UK refute suggestions they've 'hit a ceiling' but they have and here's why | Conservative Home

The party has already absorbed much of the support that comes easily to it. From here, the task is different: persuading voters to stay, winning over the remaining considerers who are wary of competen...

conservativehome.com

Both the Greens and Reform tend to poll better in more deprived areas, but the similarities largely stop there. You can see this using data from @moreincommonuk.bsky.social's latest MRP

Yes Keir Starmer is the most unpopular PM in history and yes, this is partly a reflection of the man, but people forget its also a sign of the times

If I was theresa may right now I would be fuming that my go-for-broke snap election cosplaying as a latter-day margaret thatcher didn't come off as well as this www.economist.com/asia/2026/02...

How Japan’s prime minister will use her massive new mandate

A remarkable election victory that will reshape Japanese politics for years to come

economist.com

It's always interesting how senior advisers to PMs through the ages (Alastair Campbell, Andy Coulson, Fiona Hill/Nick Timothy, Dominic Cummings) become lightning rods for people's hatred of the PM - and when they go it always leaves them exposed and fatally weakened

Adam Bienkov@adambienkov.bsky.social · 6mo ago

“Getting rid of Morgan is our only way back..." why many Labour MPs now think McSweeney's exit is the only way to save Starmer's leadership and why some think it will just bring the Prime Minister down too bylinetimes.com/2026/02/05/p...

Ice really is just all the dudes who failed police academy

Asha Rangappa@asharangappa.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Three rules in FBI firearm training: 1. Always point your weapon downrange 2. Do not point your weapon at anything you do not intend to shoot 3. Don’t put your finger on the trigger unless you intend to shoot Guns are not for threatening compliance for unarmed people doing things you don’t like

Labour is polling at the lowest level for a government in living memory, can it pull it back? Have other governments been able to? A 🧵(1/)

Increasing public attention on this (and increasing public support for debt write-offs) - but, as with all vague policy proposals, it won't survive contact with telling people how much it will cost... for what would be, in effect, a huge tax cut for graduates

George Eaton@georgeeaton.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Will Labour face a graduate revolt? Why I think the student loan scandal could be reaching a tipping point. www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

A reminder that not all modern Western leaders are doomed to eternal unpopularity (at least when voters believe their country is existentially threatened + you have Trump as your foil) from @angusreidinstitute.bsky.social

Why are people acting like anything else other than this was going to happen with Burham? The No10 political operation may be pretty useless but they're not so useless that they would invite Starmer's biggest rival into parliament because they were worried about a short-term backlash

People need to stop saying psychodrama, that’s not what it means.

Elite vs mass discourse has always been a thing though... it's just now we do it on twitter

Helene von Bismarck@helenebismarck.bsky.social · 6mo ago

At the height of UK politics Twitter, I used to come to London regularly to catch up with contacts in media, think tank world &parliament. So many of the "Insider stories" they told me sounded oddly familiar. And then I realised. I had read about them on Twitter. So had the "Westminster Insiders“.

This kind of dishonesty about the public finances is exactly what drives voters towards fiscal conservatism

Daily reminder that people are generally sceptical of all their political leaders (although Starmer is the worst of the pack)

Canadians under age 30 are now much more conservative than those over 60... There is huge anger at the unfairness of the intergenerational deal (older voters getting a larger share of the pie than younger voters) and at rising housing costs, especially in Canada

Hard to understand the cultural backlash from some young men against women without seeing how they see it: for them, women (and the women's movement) have totally moved away from their perceived normality

Just going back through some of the focus groups we ran during the Conservative leadership contest - Some of the participants surprisingly prescient about Jenrick and where it was all going to end up.

Flipside of perspectives on US imperialism: some / many latin americans really want it (same for 1989 invasion of Panama - 92pc of panamanians were in favour) from @atlasintel.bsky.social