Told @FoxNews: Fundamentally, both sides know that the status quo is a recipe for continued military and economic attrition without a clear endgame. www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...

Trump offers Iran ‘last chance’ deal as repeated pauses fail to end war

Trump calls diplomacy Iran's "last chance" after halting what he described as the biggest planned U.S. attack since World War II amid disputed talks.

foxnews.com

Told @nytimes : Whatever solution leaves Iran in control of the strait will be a tough sell for Trump but there is also no military solution to remove Iran’s control of the strait. Trump’s options are between an unwinnable war and an unpalatable peace. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/03/u...

An Emerging Deal Between Iran and Oman to Reopen Hormuz Would Come at a Cost for Trump

The deal would address President Trump’s most urgent political problem by allowing ships to move again. But it would give Iran strategic leverage it did not have before the war.

nytimes.com

Told the one&only @StevenErlanger: There is the crisis of credibility for the U.S. Neither its military prowess nor its diplomatic promises can be trusted. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/01/w...

In Iran, the U.S. Appears Headed for a Strategic Defeat, Allies Fear

With none of President Trump’s aims accomplished and the Strait of Hormuz closed, U.S. allies see dysfunction and vulnerability from the war.

nytimes.com

After a lull, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has reignited, spreading in new and dangerous ways. It could continue to widen, engulfing ever more countries. In this Q&A, our team @CrisisGroup explains why de-escalation is urgent in every theatre. www.crisisgroup.org/qna/middle-e...

The Middle East’s Metastasising Conflicts | International Crisis Group

After a lull, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has reignited, spreading in new and dangerous ways. It could continue to widen, engulfing ever more countries. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains why…

crisisgroup.org

Told @FoxNews: For more than 4 decades, the US has been able to coerce the Iranian regime economically. Now for the Iranians can retaliate in kind by putting pressure on the pocketbook of every American citizen. www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...

Follow my Iran Policy Watch newsletter on Substack. Second edition is out now: Timeline, sanctions tracker, and why the U.S.-Iran tensions risk becoming a forever war ⬇️ open.substack.com/pub/vaezali/...

Iran Policy Watch - July 2026

A monthly newsletter from Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President at the International Crisis Group. Covering the period 20 June to 2 June 2026.

open.substack.com

Told @Latimes: Once you’ve proven that diplomacy doesn’t work, then there’s only war. www.latimes.com/world-nation...

News Analysis: Trump, long a critic of 'forever wars,' may be stumbling into one with Iran

President Trump railed against "forever wars," but with hostilities increasing and negotiations at a standstill, there appears no easy exit from the war he launched on Iran.

latimes.com

Told the inimitable @@StevenErlanger: Both Iran and the U.S. looked to the memorandum of understanding as the continuation of the war by other means, not as a bridge to peace, www.nytimes.com/2026/07/16/w...

In Iran war, Trump Risks Another American ‘Forever War’

President Trump, who promised to “end wars,” not start them, may have fallen into a familiar presidential trap.

nytimes.com

If the U.S. and Iran allow even this modest understanding to disappear, the next cease-fire will become merely the pause before the next battle — and war, rather than diplomacy, could well become the permanent condition. My latest for @NYTOpinion www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/o...

Opinion | This Is a Forever War in the Making

The vague language of the U.S.-Iran cease-fire memo laid the foundation for the war’s resumption.

nytimes.com

Look forward to moderating a stellar panel of experts for this @CrisisGroup webinar on Thursday. Registration details available here: www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/... @PhilGordonDC @vali_nasr @YasFarouk @robinenergy

Diplomacy with adversaries rarely begins with moral clarity. It begins when the costs of illusion exceed the discomfort of reality. Have Iran and the U.S. arrived at that point? My latest for @ForeignAffairs

America and Iran’s Strange Moment of Opportunity

How a deadlocked conflict can pave the way for peace.

foreignaffairs.com

Told @lrozen: The US and Iran never fully stopped trying to win the war during the peace. The agreement bought them time, but they used much of it to test red lines, improve positions, and erode the other side’s leverage. diplomatic.substack.com/p/vance-warn...

Vance warns U.S. strikes will continue if Iran targets ships in Strait

“The Strait of Hormuz is going to be open…If they try to close it down, there’s going to be a response from the American military. It’s just going to keep on happening until they open up that...

diplomatic.substack.com

Told @NBCNews that after a war, a leadership transition, and the lingering trauma of a brutally suppressed uprising, the Islamic Republic enters a period of profound uncertainty. nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...

Told @CBSNews: There is an inverse correlation between Iran's ability to secure sanctions relief and its desire to look at the strait as a source of revenue.

How Iran could try to control the Strait of Hormuz - and profit from it

Some experts say the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state, so what could the future of this vital shipping lane look like?

cbsnews.com

Told @NYtimes: Control over the Strait of Hormuz is critical leverage that Iran doesn’t want to see eroded before they have a final deal. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/28/w...

Told @CNN: Ghalibaf has finally arrived at a position of immense influence by a process of elimination. He sought the presidency several times but was eclipsed by rivals whom the war has since swept from the stage. edition.cnn.com/2026/03/24/w...

Iran’s man in charge: Who is the negotiator leading Tehran through talks with the US? | CNN

When the Iranian delegation landed in Switzerland at the weekend, chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was the first down the aircraft steps.

edition.cnn.com

Told @washingtonpost: The Iranians view Trump as unreliable and erratic. That’s why the MOU is a proof of concept on whether negotiating a more comprehensive agreement with the U.S. is even possible. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

Told @NYT: Iran has the capacity and maybe even more incentive now to develop nuclear weapons, because it provides the ultimate deterrence against the kinds of attacks Iran has suffered for the last two years. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/18/w...

Trump says that Iran "has to have" ballistic missiles, adding "what am I going to do? Am I going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles but they can't have them?"

Told @FT that the US-Iran MoU can break a lose-lose dynamic, but without concessions on the nuclear program, relief for Tehran is little more than a painkiller for a system facing deep economic & political challenges.

Told @guardian: Iran’s water crisis has left it with virtually no margin for error. Further disruptions could prove catastrophic for the population. But Tehran is more likely to endure a deepening thirst at home than satisfy Trump’s thirst for a political victory. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

Military strikes on water facilities in Iran may constitute a war crime, experts say

Strikes on Bemani damaged key water reservoir for 20,000 people living in area amid a historic drought in the country

theguardian.com

TRUMP: We're gonna be attacking Iran, and attacking them very hard. REPORTER: Resuming bombing? TRUMP: Yeah. We are.

Told @WSJ: Iran has left Washington trying to separate two fronts whose key triggers remain outside the U.S.-Iran channel: Israel’s asserted freedom of action in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s refusal to stand down. The war has certainly made Iran less, not more, risk averse. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Spoke to @Freedland @guardian about why Trump keeps changing his mind on what to do to end the war. www.theguardian.com/politics/aud...

Trump: the boy who cried ‘peace’ in the Middle East – podcast

This week, as the US-Iran deal remains in a precarious state, Jonathan Freedland speaks to Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group about why Trump keeps changing his mind on what to do to end the war

theguardian.com

Spoke to @NPRinskeep about the Trump administration's latest efforts to end the war with Iran. www.npr.org/2026/05/29/n...

Will he? Won't he? Why does Trump do anything? Jonathan and @alivaez.bsky.social look at the prospect of the US-Israel war on Iran ending any time soon.

Jonathan Freedland@jonathanfreedland.bsky.social · 2mo ago

In the same week, Donald Trump has signalled a deal with Iran is about to be done AND resumed airstrikes on the country. Is this 5D chess - or just paralysed indecision? Latest Politics Weekly America is my conversation with Iran expert Ali Vaez open.spotify.com/episode/73X8...

Told @NPR that the deal between Iran and the U.S. can stop the bleeding, but won't heal the wound. www.npr.org/2026/05/25/n...

DC's Iran hawks got two wars, nearly every conceivable sanction designation, a blockade, threw a wrench in global economy and will still claim that just a little more pressure and a touch more bombing will magically yield the concessions they still won't be satisfied with.

Told @Reuters: Neither side has shown willingness to make the painful concessions needed for a deal. Both believe time is on their side and they have the upper hand, and that perception is precisely what is making a deal impossible. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Fox News: "President Trump just spoke to our John Roberts a moment ago. He says he is now considering renewing Project Freedom, but he says this time around the US guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz would be just one small piece of a larger military operation."