Hot off the #QLmonthly presses: the odds a laid off worker exits the labor force altogether is reaching an all time high! Could unemployment rates be artificially low? Check out March's data and our monthly briefing sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

Ahem: I mean papers **in progress** not (necessarily) papers on Economic development (although those are welcomed too) 🤦

Amanda Michaud@amandamichaud.bsky.social · last yr.

📣 #econsky Each fall, Mpls Fed hosts scholars within 8 years of their PhD for an Early Career Workshop focused on papers **in development** This year's deadline is April 11. Share & help us find the best new 💡 from PhD's 2017-2024! www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co...

📣 #econsky Each fall, Mpls Fed hosts scholars within 8 years of their PhD for an Early Career Workshop focused on papers **in development** This year's deadline is April 11. Share & help us find the best new 💡 from PhD's 2017-2024! www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co...

Lots of skepticism of the Michigan Survey out there from the econ nerds. I'll add the chart below, comparing to CPS quits that K. Ellieroth and I construct. Thanks to my (fantastic) RA Sara Canilang for showing this to me yesterday.

#QLmonthly updated with February data. No material weakness in the labor market but quits are flashing a contradictory signal. This month we explore how quits relate to worker expectations and to forecasting. sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

QL Monthly

Percent of prime age employed workers who quit or are laid-off each month

sites.google.com

#QLmonthly update: updated with January data. Data support our view we've expressed over the past few months that the labor market has settled at a normal position after some noted cooling in early-mid 2024. The rise in prime EU and layoffs were not sustained. sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co...

QL Monthly

Percent of prime age employed workers who quit or are laid-off each month

sites.google.com

#QLmonthly has been updated with December's data. (sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co...). Updated charts for prime-age in this thread. First, layoffs to non-employment rose in December but the rolling average remains below the summer 24' spike. 1/3

QL Monthly

Percent of prime age employed workers who quit or are laid-off each month

sites.google.com

Today's jobs day numbers look consistent with our read from our #QLmonthly series.

Amanda Michaud@amandamichaud.bsky.social · 2y ago

We may have buried the lede in this article. Before #jobsday I want to be clear that our data show a stabilization or even improvement in labor markets after the accelerated cooling this year ->August. My view: the risk that labor markets worsen is now low. www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024...

#QLmonthly data updated with November's release (sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co...). We are in blackout so here are the updated charts, without commentary. I will be back with analysis after Friday. First chart: prime age quits and layoffs to nonemployment (1/3)

QL Monthly

Percent of prime age employed workers who quit or are laid-off each month

sites.google.com

We may have buried the lede in this article. Before #jobsday I want to be clear that our data show a stabilization or even improvement in labor markets after the accelerated cooling this year ->August. My view: the risk that labor markets worsen is now low. www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024...

Where is the U.S. labor market heading? Interpreting the mixed signals| Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

New data series connects layoffs with the unemployment rate, providing a fresh look at where the labor market might be headed

minneapolisfed.org

New today: my Mpls Fed Research Note on how layoffs and labor supply contribute to unemployment. Labor supply rises in recessions, driving 25-30% of the rise in unemployment & giving insight to workers' perceptions. See what this means for the current moment: www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024...

Where is the U.S. labor market heading? Interpreting the mixed signals| Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

New data series connects layoffs with the unemployment rate, providing a fresh look at where the labor market might be headed

minneapolisfed.org

#Qlmonthly update shows three months of pause in labor market softening. Mixed signals for what lies ahead as layoffs show signs of backing down but some job finding rates slide (although job to job flows appear to rally?) Let's take a look 1/n ()

#QLmonthly briefing is posted . The word of the month is "resilience". Layoffs to non-employment begin decline after rising for several months. Quits continue recent rebound suggesting worker confidence in the labor market's future 1/n

The annual conference I organize is this Thursday, October 3rd! I invite you to check out the wonderful program to be kicked off with remarks from Raphael Bostic followed by a conversation with Neel Kashkari. Please join us via live stream ()

#QLmonthly briefing is posted . Most people caught the rise in layoffs this month but did you see the rise in quits? Quits typically rise in good times! This is just one month, so watch Sep to see if it is more than a blip. 1/n

#QLmonthly data have been updated with August's release (). Commentary coming after blackout will focus on time aggregation bias and comparison to JOLTS. Enjoy silent graph updates in following tweets, starting with quits and layoffs to non-employment (1/3)

#QLmonthly update brings good news: layoffs seem to have stabilized from June to July after steady rises in the first half of the year. Falling quits have also paused. () 1/n

📢Announcing *new* monthly series of quits and layoffs reported by households! We see a notable sign of labor market softening: layoffs have risen steadily and significantly since January 2024. Do I have your attention #JOLTS and #jobsday fans? #econtwitter 🧵1/n

Industrial policy is trending @nberpubs! Cue the time machine to my 2014 JIE on capital controls as industrial policy. Remember: second best policies that tilt the inter- Euler (capital controls, exchange rates, etc) get further from first best when growth externalities get large

Pumped to be giving a seminar at UBC but how am I going to compete with perfect weather to take in the stunning fall colors? I'll do my best to make the business cycle implications precautionary labor supply as exciting as possible! 🍁

Economics is a SOCIAL science. The time we spend together moves the frontier orders of magnitude more than our time alone. Thankful for a couple of weeks between LSE, Bristol, Oxford, and Vienna Macro. Eager to get home and feed the sparks of inspiration.

It was my first time at NBER SI's "labor week". Everyone was kind, polite, and constructive. It was an appreciated opportunity to better our research and meet the authors of many papers we cite.

Hey #SED2023 @SEDmeeting : I just put 3 "!!!" in slides for @DavidWiczer 's presentation on Friday @ 9am of our paper on spatial redistribution of SSDI w/ Tim Moore (Map is of DI/working age pop in VA). What am I so excited about? 1/3

1x1

I missed the news of Stanley Engerman's passing. His work was inspirational. I was lucky enough to write my ugrad thesis under his supervision, an experience that was literally life changing. I also enjoyed keeping in touch with him through the years. 1/2

Waiting out blizzard conditions at home? Check out the new draft of my work with Kathrin Ellieroth: "From Trend to Cycle: the Changing Careers of Married Women and Business Cycle Risk."

Employment among persons reporting a disability has recovered far beyond pre-pandemic levels (CPS). Could technology be the driver? I'll present evidence in favor today @AtlantaFed and livestreamed. #techdisrupts22

What a week! A surprise engagement in the Swiss Alps followed by a warm welcome to the Vienna Macro community. Now I understand the hype around this conference. Positive and challenging. Can't wait to return!

Joyeux Tintamarre! Today Acadiens make noise to announce that WE ARE STILL HERE. Despite attempted extermination and centuries of discrimination, financial and educational repression; we are no longer ashamed. We are thriving and we are proud. (1/3)