The Arms Control Paradox began years ago as a simple question: how do we build lasting agreements in a world where technology outruns treaties? This week, my author copies arrived from @stanfordpress.bsky.social. To everyone who challenged my ideas or encouraged me—thank you. lnkd.in/enmfXVyT

U.S. #AI strategy is a sprint to dominate the #frontier, while Chinese AI strategy is a tool for #nationalrejuvenation. What happens when these irreconcilable #nationalmythologies clash in #crisis? Read my thoughts from my latest piece at @newamerica.org. tinyurl.com/9f68kpxe

The AI Race Is a Clash of Mythologies

The US-China AI race isn't just about compute and models. Competing national mythologies are what make a crisis escalate.

tinyurl.com

Last month, Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org merica.org gathered #nuclear policy experts for Control+Alt+Deter's Scenario Planning stage. They ran live crisis scenarios, stepping into the shoes of U.S. policymakers racing to restore deterrence.

1/3 Gen Z is more likely to believe WWIII is coming than that they'll afford a home. Kate Barranco asks: What does sustained exposure to catastrophe do to the futures a generation believes are possible? And what did our crises do to us?

"Peace through strength" sounds simple, but deterrence actually runs on legibility—currently in short supply. Troops out of Germany, surge to the Middle East—noise, not legible strategy. My thoughts @newamerica.org 👇 newamerica.org/insights/peace-through-strength-is-hard-to-read/

“Peace Through Strength” Is Hard to Read

newamerica.org

We’re in the print edition of @nytopinion.nytimes.com today. Sean Guillory and I write about the long term risks of prediction markets to national security. Check it out.

New America@newamerica.org · 3mo ago

Popular prediction market companies like Polymarket and Kalshi are pushing us into dangerous new territory, warns New America's @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social and Sean Anthony Guillory of Betting Intelligence in a new guest essay for NYT. 🎰 Read the op-ed: https://nyti.ms/4cHC1S0

Excited to share my latest in @nytopinion.nytimes.com with co-author Sean Anthony Guillory: Prediction markets aren't just a finance story — they're a national security one. Read our full argument in NYT Opinion

New York Times Opinion@nytopinion.nytimes.com · 3mo ago

“Washington should govern betting markets as if national security were at stake, because it is,” write Sean Anthony Guillory and Amy J. Nelson.

Trump said today he wouldn't use a nuclear weapon against Iran. The pledge is welcome. The reasoning stopped me. @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Trump says US will not use nuclear weapon in Iran war

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday ​that he would not use a nuclear weapon in ‌the war against Iran.

reuters.com

The Arms Control Paradox is now available for preorder here: bookshop.org/p/books/the-... Out September 15 @stanfordpress.bsky.social

ICYMI: my conversation with @wjhenn.bsky.social at @newamerica.org on why nuclear danger is rising even as attention fades—and how repeated warnings can turn an existential threat into background noise—is streaming here 👇 www.newamerica.org/events/when-...

When Nuclear Danger Becomes Background Noise: A Conversation with W.J. (“Bill”) Hennigan and Amy J. Nelson

newamerica.org

Glad to see this argument getting attention. In this piece I’m quoted from my recent @newamerica.org report (supported by @ploughshares.bsky.social), where I argue that nuclear risk has become normalized—warnings accumulate, but urgency fades. Worth reading, especially on Oscar night.

Ian Prasad Philbrick@ianprasad.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Went outside my comfort zone to argue that “A House of Dynamite” is, despite its Oscars snub, the most important movie of the past year:

Join @wjhenn.bsky.social of @nytopinion.nytimes.com and New America's @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for a virtual conversation about nuclear risk and threat complacency. 📅 Join us: March 4 at 12 pm ET https://go.newamerica.org/when-nuclear-danger-becomes-noise-5

When agreements erode, force replaces diplomacy. The U.S. operation in Iran is a signal about what comes after limits and frameworks in the nuclear order. My thoughts below. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

When Force Replaces Frameworks: What Iran Signals About the Future of Arms Control

newamerica.org

As tensions escalate again around Iran and the risk of wider regional conflict grows, nuclear danger is back in the headlines. It is also increasingly normalized. Join us at New America to discuss this phenomenon, our recent report on the topic, and hear from @nytimes.com's @wjhenn.bsky.social

New America@newamerica.org · 5mo ago

Upcoming at New America 📅 3/4 When Nuclear Danger Becomes Background Noise: A Conversation with @wjhenn.bsky.social and @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social 📅 4/9 The Great Game 📅 https://go.newamerica.org/new-america-events-5 #NewAmericaEvents

As arms control erodes, everyone talks about stability. But instead of new treaties, we are getting posture tweaks and doctrinal shifts. France isn't breaking with restraint. It’s adjusting to a thinner, more uncertain environment. f24.my/Bm5P.BS

‘To be free, we have to be feared,’ Macron says in keynote nuclear speech

France will increase its nuclear warheads for the first time in decades, French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Monday, saying that “to be free, we have to be feared”. Macron delivered the upda...

f24.my

Where is the off-ramp here? What does “success” mean in practical terms, and how will anyone know if it’s been achieved? If there are no clear limits or benchmarks, strikes risk becoming open-ended by default.

David Noll@david.noll.org · 5mo ago

Understatement alert

I've made a new starter pack of people to follow for news and commentary on Iran. Got the idea from a request by @kakape.bsky.social

SLCM-N is moving ahead. What matters is the world it enters in 2035. New report: “Future-Proofing U.S. Nuclear Policy.” Deterrence will depend less on the missile than the strategy around it. @newamerica.org rg Future Security Scenarios Lab: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Future-Proofing U.S. Nuclear Policy: Forecasting Security Outcomes of the Nuclear-Armed Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM-N)

Analysis of SLCM-N shows its strategic value depends primarily on future conditions—not on the system itself.

newamerica.org

On March 4, grantee @newamerica.org is hosting a virtual conversation on how nuclear danger is understood & reported, also highlighting a new report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social. Register ⬇️ https://loom.ly/K2M7Qy0

After New START, stability will depend less on treaties and more on strategy. Out today: I argue for “disciplined ambiguity” in a post-treaty environment: not secrecy for its own sake, deliberate choices about what to clarify, what to withhold, and how signals shape escalation risk. bit.ly/4bcgKOn

After New START: The Case for Disciplined Ambiguity

With New START expired, stability depends less on transparency and more on managed uncertainty.

bit.ly

Join us March 4 with @wjhenn.bsky.social for a conversation on how the public understands, interprets, and responds to nuclear risk.

New America@newamerica.org · 5mo ago

Upcoming at New America 📅 3/2 A Quarter of U.S. Homes Cost Under $200,000. Why Can’t Families Buy Them? 📅 3/4 When Nuclear Danger Becomes Background Noise: A Conversation with @wjhenn.bsky.social and @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social 📅 https://go.newamerica.org/new-america-events-5 #NewAmericaEvents

What happens when nuclear warnings become routine? Join @newamerica.org for a conversation on how repeated signals of danger are interpreted, communicated, and acted on in today’s policy environment. With @wjhenn.bsky.social and opening remarks by Anne-Marie Slaughter. Register: bit.ly/4axpuzl

Nuclear debates persist because we disagree not only on policy, but on how to judge risk and evidence under uncertainty. Appreciate @ploughshares.bsky.social highlighting my @foreignpolicy.com piece on the epistemic divide shaping nuclear policy. Read more: loom.ly/IcwWEpA

Nuclear Policy Must Learn to Live With Disagreement

From climate to AI, other fields have bridged deep divides.

loom.ly

Ploughshares@ploughshares.bsky.social · 6mo ago

"The divide between nuclear policy camps is not just ideological; it is epistemic." More from @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social of @newamerica.org in @foreignpolicy.com ⬇️ https://loom.ly/IcwWEpA

Iran’s nuclear file is heating up again amid renewed talks and military buildup. From my 2025 @thebulletin.org piece: There's no clean military solution. Strikes may buy time, but risk escalation and reduced transparency. Goal is to extend warning time before crisis narrows choices. bit.ly/4aMhAky

To prevent Iran's nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy

To curb Iran's nuclear ambitions before it is too late, the Trump administration has no choice but to learn the art of strategic compromise.

thebulletin.org

Appreciate @ploughshares.bsky.social lifting up our @newamerica.org report. Nuclear risk is increasing. Deterrence is under strain, arms control is thinner, and ambiguity is growing. Why, then, does the danger feel distant? Our report analyzes the mechanisms that normalize escalating risk.

Ploughshares@ploughshares.bsky.social · 6mo ago

A report from @newamerica.org examines the psychological & structural mechanisms behind "nuclear complacency." "Understanding these mechanisms is essential for revitalizing civic engagement and policy legitimacy in the nuclear domain." https://loom.ly/MJuFejI

Grateful to be included in this roundup from @newamerica.org My contribution to @thebulletin.org examines what managing nuclear risk requires after New START: transparency, restraint, and discipline function as guardrails in a more fragile nuclear order.

New America@newamerica.org · 6mo ago

New America experts in the news: 1️⃣ @kevincarey1.bsky.social's recent higher ed book review published in @nytimes.com https://nyti.ms/4qrTrFu 2️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social contributes to a @thebulletin.org compendium https://bit.ly/4kwXMWO

🚨JUST IN: Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world. My round-up👇 - 1/n (More will be added over the next few days.) #NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky

The experts comment: New START expires, bringing both risks and opportunities

Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world.

thebulletin.org

This points to 1 of 2 things: either the bureaucracy is out of step with the informal, fast-moving negotiations in Abu Dhabi, or the mixed messaging is designed to create ambiguity and keep Russia guessing. Both underscore how stability is now being managed through improvisation.

A quiet but consequential signal: New START principles being kept alive, at least temporarily. Six more months of compliance buys time, but also underscores how improvised arms control has become, reportedly brokered through Abu Dhabi rather than formal channels.

Axios@axios.com · 6mo ago

SCOOP: The U.S. and Russia are closing in on a deal to continue to observe the expiring New START arms control treaty beyond its expiration today