Annette N. Brown

@anbrown.bsky.social

Professor of the Practice at UNC - Chapel Hill, economist, researcher, former executive. Past positions at FHI 360, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie), University of Chicago, Western Michigan University and others. Reposts ~= endorsement.

I just posted two articles on LinkedIn recovered from the defunct FHI 360 research blog. Both are reports from a rapid evidence review I conducted with Jacqueline Shieh on interventions addressing the dual burden of malnutrition in LMICs. Review covered 78 SRs and umbrella SRs. Links in comments.

Yesterday my class anonymously answered the time trade-off question used for DALY disability weights, paraphrased: "how much of a year's duration would you give up to avoid having this disability for the remaining portion?" Their ranges: Back pain - 0-25%; Depression - 20-70%; Blindness - 40-97%.

Children's health holds steady after aging out of Peru's Cuna Más childcare program, but mothers reported significantly higher rates of depression. New research co-authored by NORC’s Angelo Cozzubo points to a need for transitional support for caretakers. View the full study: go.norc.org/4fsySXz

Motherly Care: The Impacts of Exiting a Childcare Program on Child and Maternal Health

We investigate the unintended impacts of exiting Peru’s Cuna Más public childcare program on child and maternal health. With increased public childcare use in developing countries, understanding th...

doi.org

Reminder that on his last day of his first term, Trump awarded a commendation to Dr Fauci "in recognition of his exceptional effort on Operation Warp Speed"

cap of White House page honoring Fauci

Taylor Farms' parent company has given $2.2M to GOP PACs this election cycle. That includes $1M to Trump's own PAC, just 6 days after the FDA delayed new food tracing requirements last year. Money in politics is sickening.

That amusement when you're told to bring your presentation on a thumb drive and you search your office frantically for one, to see that the only file on the drive you find is dated 2011. Time flies!

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.