Andi Shehu
@andishehu.bsky.social
Policy analyst & historian · EU & world Economics, climate, international politics For people who want the mechanism, not the headline
Nel 2026 l'Ue ha reso vincolante il taglio del 90% delle emissioni al 2040. Nello stesso pacchetto ha però introdotto fino al 5% di crediti internazionali dal 2036, l'uso di rimozioni permanenti di carbonio e più flessibilità tra settori. Registrazione: www.thegoodlobby.it/eventi/europ... 1/3
Europe is about to spend more on defence: €800 billion mobilised, a joint borrowing instrument in SAFE, a NATO target of 5% by 2035. Given Russia's war and an unreliable American guarantee, the focus on defence is justified. However, what travels alongside the money? 🧵
Europe is writing its biggest defence cheques since the Cold War: €800bn, 5% of GDP and conscription returning. The threat from Russia is real, Usa is destrying NATO from within. So Europe must indeed take defense in its own hands. 1/2
Albania's government paid an American firm to prove the protests were a foreign "hybrid war." Out of 879,067 messages, the report found seven tied to Russia. Seven. So the government had to admit the grievances were legitimate.
The Pelican and the Flamingo
How Albania learned to defend a lagoon, and to stop fleeing West
shehuandi.substack.com
Some things — land, water, a coastline — were never made to be sold. Karl Polanyi's name for what happens next: the double movement. First everything is auctioned; then a society rises to take back what's left open.substack.com/pub/shehuand...
The Pelican and the Flamingo
How Albania learned to defend a lagoon, and to stop fleeing West
open.substack.com
We all think: corruption is the disease, fighting it is the cure. The opposite can be true. 🧵 1/4
I'm Andi, trained as a chemist but I liked history more and become one. In my free time, I try to make Europe's decisions legible: in essays and short videos about economics, climate and international politics. 📩 The Continental Brief, my newsletter (free): shehuandi.substack.com
Two men, same job, same age, same company (Amazon). One earns more... and is more likely to die young. He's the American. A rich American and a poor German now have roughly the same odds of reaching 75. So tell me again which continent is "in decline." open.substack.com/pub/shehuand...
Mismeasured
Why does Europe keep being told that it is the one in decline?
open.substack.com
1/ Italy pays guards in Albania to watch empty cells. The EU just made this the model for the continent. I wrote about how a failed experiment became Europe's strictest migration law; and why it was never really failing: shehuandi.substack.com/p/the-returns
The Returns
Europe tested its deportation machine. It failed. So it became the law of the continent.
shehuandi.substack.com
1/2 Rama says that if it were not Jared Kushner, Albanians would not care. I think the opposite is true. Kushner is the reason the world is looking, but he is not the reason Albanians are angry. Link: open.substack.com/pub/shehuand...
1/8 Russian frozen assets: Belgium did not volunteer to become the keeper of Europe’s most dangerous liability. That is the part of the frozen Russian assets debate that keeps getting confused. open.substack.com/pub/shehuand...
The Back Office of Reparations
What €193 billion in a Belgian custody account tells us about European power
open.substack.com
The leadership of the country that just killed the leaders of another country weeks ago tells us that political violence is not the answer.
Meloni definisce “motore europeo” l’asse con Merz: in realtà è un patto tra due economie fragili, senza investimenti, senza politica industriale, senza visione. Perché deregulation e slogan non creano crescita. Così l’Europa però non accelera, deraglia. Con @andishehu.bsky.social
For decades, Europe accepted a bargain: US security guarantees in exchange for markets, stability, alignment. It was imperfect but it helped reduce conflict and produce prosperity. That bargain broke. The time of monsters is upon us and it is based on predation 1/4
Here we go with Nixon's "Madman Theory" update. Now it comes wrapped with no theory, but with a real-world madman.
"Do you support starting WWIII because Trump couldn't get his Nobel Peace Prize?"
Trying to foment a war within NATO and a civil war while grasping for the Nobel Peace Prize has to be peak insanity. Yet, I'm sure it'll get worse.
In Iran servono 100 anni di stipendi per una casa e il pane costa il 72% in più. Intanto, il regime reprime chi protesta mentre il Paese crolla. Volt sta con chi resiste: servono sanzioni mirate, protezione per gli iraniani e una condanna netta della repressione. Con @andishehu.bsky.social
What we’re seeing isn’t a revival of nineteenth-century imperialism. It’s an interregnum: a moment where the old ordering stories have collapsed, but no new ones have replaced them. 1/2
The Time of Monsters
Between resource imperialism and imperial cosplay
open.substack.com
Il governo Meloni è stabile, sì. Ma l’Italia cresce poco e i salari reali arretrano: spread basso e mercati tranquilli non bastano se produttività, investimenti e innovazione restano fermi. Perché la stabilità senza scelte coraggiose è semplice immobilismo. Con @andishehu.bsky.social
Il diritto internazionale è imperfetto, spesso ipocrita. Ma costringe il potere a una lingua contestabile e permette di reagire alle violazioni. Il vero pericolo è il cinismo, che normalizza la legge del più forte: difendere il diritto internazionale è politica! Con @andishehu.bsky.social
Venezuela exposed a fault line in the rules-based order. Condemning violations is easy when they come from adversaries. Europe’s ambiguity isn’t neutral. It’s a surrender of agency and it surrenders the language of sovereignty to far right actors. Does Europe have a problem with sovereignty?
The real numbers on the Russian economy. Here for the full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shehuand...
Potemkin Boom
How Russia Is Cannibalising Its Own Future
open.substack.com
Volt Italia@voltitalia.it · 7mo agoSe si guardano solo i numeri ufficiali, sembra che l’economia russa stia andando bene. Cresce il PIL, le fabbriche lavorano a ritmi serrati, lo Stato spende. Ma questa non è forza. È solo un’illusione. E soprattutto: è un’illusione che divora il futuro. Con @andishehu.bsky.social
Russia’s economy didn’t collapse after 2022 But resilience isn’t the same as health. War spending boosts GDP while hollowing out labour supply, civilian investment and long-term growth. Growth that looks stable while consuming its own future. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shehuand...
open.substack.com
Una cifra completamente inadeguata
Volt Italia@voltitalia.it · 8mo agoDraghi è netto: per la competitività europea servono 800 miliardi di investimenti aggiuntivi ogni anno. La risposta UE in discussione è 409 miliardi in 7 anni e partirebbe dal 2028. Ma USA e Cina investono ora: se l’Europa aspetta, perde industria, lavoro e tecnologia. Con @andishehu.bsky.social
Draghi è netto: per la competitività europea servono 800 miliardi di investimenti aggiuntivi ogni anno. La risposta UE in discussione è 409 miliardi in 7 anni e partirebbe dal 2028. Ma USA e Cina investono ora: se l’Europa aspetta, perde industria, lavoro e tecnologia. Con @andishehu.bsky.social
Everyone keeps asking whether Europe is “declining”. That’s the wrong question. Europe is wealthy enough to avoid collapse and comfortable enough to avoid decisions. I unpack the data, the myth and the political consequences here 👇 shehuandi.substack.com/p/europe-is-...
Europe is not in decline. It is in suspension.
Europe’s priorities for 2026 have been chosen.
shehuandi.substack.com
Meloni Is being normalized in Europe. Is that correct? Data says no. English subtitles
Volt Italia@voltitalia.it · 8mo agoNel 2025 quasi il 70% delle dichiarazioni pubbliche di Giorgia Meloni verificate da Pagella Politica è risultato impreciso o inaffidabile. Non è un dettaglio tecnico: è una questione di democrazia. Chi guida un Paese ha il dovere di dire la verità, non di manipolarla. Con @andishehu.bsky.social
Nel 2025 quasi il 70% delle dichiarazioni pubbliche di Giorgia Meloni verificate da Pagella Politica è risultato impreciso o inaffidabile. Non è un dettaglio tecnico: è una questione di democrazia. Chi guida un Paese ha il dovere di dire la verità, non di manipolarla. Con @andishehu.bsky.social